Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location‐scale families (including the log‐normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.     

流动：农村家庭消费观念现代化的动力——基于中西部五省的实证研究

基于2005年初在中西部五省所展开的调查，本文主要探讨了农民大批进城工作的流动经历对农村家庭消费观念的影响。分析发现：这种经历有助于推动农村家庭消费观念的现代化。而且，不同的流动经历所产生的这种影响的大小又有一定的区别。此外，流动这一单一因素对农村家庭消费观念现代化转变的影响又是有限的，要完全实现这种转变还取决于其他多种因素。     

Mother and Grandmother Parenting in Low‐Income Three‐Generation Rural Households

This study draws data from the Family Life Project to examine parenting behaviors observed for 105 mothers and grandmothers raising an infant in rural low‐income multigenerational households. Multilevel models are used to examine the relationships between maternal age and psychological distress and parenting of the infant by both generations. The findings indicate that young maternal age is a risk factor for less sensitive parenting in the presence of other risks, including psychological distress. Further, young maternal age is associated with negative parenting behaviors by grandmothers only. Grandmothers and mothers displayed similar levels of negative intrusive parenting, but different factors were linked to the observed parenting of each generation. These findings contribute to understanding the benefits and risks of three‐generation households.     

Intergenerational Support and Depression Among Elders in Rural China: Do Daughters‐In‐Law Matter?

This study examined the influence of intergenerational assistance with household chores and personal care from sons, daughters, and daughters‐in‐law on the depressive symptoms of older adults in rural China. The sample derived from rural Anhui Province, a region with a strong hierarchy of support preferences that leads with sons and their families. We used data from a random sample of 1,281 adults aged 60 and over, who were interviewed in 2001 and 2003. Analyses indicated that depressive symptoms were usually reduced by assistance from daughters‐in‐law and increased sometimes when such support was from sons. These relationships held most strongly when mothers coresided with their daughters‐in‐law. This research suggests that the benefits of intergenerational support are conditional on culturally prescribed expectations.     

A Construction of Lancaster Probabilities with Margins in the Multidimensional Meixner Class

The well-known Meixner class (Meixner, 1934) of probabilities on R has been extended recently to R ^d (Pommeret, 1996). This generalized Meixner class corresponds to the simple quadratic natural exponential families characterized by Casalis (1996). Following Lancaster (1975), the present paper offers a characterization of the joint probability of a randomvector ( X, Y ) such that the two variables X and Y on R ^d belong to the multidimensional Meixner class and fulfil a bi-orthogonality condition involving orthogonal polynomials. The joint probabilities, called Lancaster probabilities, are characterized by two sequences of orthogonal polynomials with respect to the margins and a sequence of expectations of products. Some multivariate probabilities are studied, namely the Poisson-Gaussian and the gamma-Gaussian.     

Ethical challenges in conducting research with hard to reach families

This paper reflects on some of the ethical challenges encountered by the authors whilst undertaking sensitive qualitative research with parents and children who are traditionally hard to reach. The research aimed to provide more holistic and in‐depth accounts of parenting on a low income in diverse social circumstances than already exist. The nature of the sample and the subject matter that was covered inevitably raised many familiar ethical dilemmas and some that are less often encountered in practice, particularly in relation to child protection. In this article we discuss our approach to ethics, some of the ethical challenges we encountered undertaking work with families and discuss the complexity of decision‐making around risk of harm to children. We conclude that a clear framework to avoid harm should be developed at the outset and a transparent approach to child protection issues should be used. Additional time and resources need to be incorporated at the planning stage of similar projects in order to develop appropriate methods, ensure effective decision‐making and support researchers. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Marriage and Socioeconomic Change in Contemporary Indonesia

This study investigates the relationship between economic trends and entry into marriage in a rapidly developing setting. We examine Indonesian marriage in the 1990s, a decade of substantial economic growth followed by a sudden financial collapse in 1998. We use discrete‐time hazard models to analyze information on 4,078 women and 4,496 men from the Indonesia Family Life Survey. Although previous research has shown that marriages may be postponed after economic downturn, we find no evidence of such delays at the national level following the 1998 financial crisis. In contrast, we use regional wage rate data to show that entry into marriage is inversely related to economic growth throughout the decade for all women and for men from lower socioeconomic strata.     

Relationship of Dyadic Closeness With Work‐Related Stress: A Daily Diary Study

We examined the association between work‐related stress of both spouses and daily fluctuations in their affective states and dyadic closeness. Daily diary data from 169 Israeli dual‐earner couples were analyzed using multilevel modeling. The findings indicate that work stress has no direct effect on dyadic closeness but rather is mediated by the spouses’ negative mood. Evidence was found for spillover of stress from work to mood at home, as well as negative crossover among couples with higher marital quality, resulting in greater distance on stressful days. Such increased distance may reflect either a deleterious effect of work stress on marital relationships or a protective mechanism used by couples in times of stress.     

Children’s Time Use: Labor Divisions and Schooling in Indonesia

Data from the Worker and Iron Status Evaluation are used to examine gendered patterns in children’s time in market and nonmarket work, schooling, and leisure in Indonesia (N= 2,929). Boys spend more time in market work; girls spend more time in nonmarket work. Work responsibilities increase with age as well as gender differentials in children’s time use. By age 18, girls spend nearly 1 more hour per day working and enjoy significantly less leisure time, but the gender gap in schooling is not significant, suggesting that parents and children are committed to both work and schooling. Additionally, Tobit regression results suggest that parents’ education, household income, and rural residency are important predictors of children’s labor and schooling time.     

Speed Mentoring in Teaching and Learning: Young people with experience of the care system mentor social work students

The value of listening and talking to young people with experience of the care system has been recognised as a vital and positive contribution to social work students' learning. A model of co-production was used to develop a series of speed mentoring events whereby social work students placed in local authority children and family settings were mentored by young people with experience of the care system. This tentative review of this small-scale project shares the authors' critical reflections on the value and reliability of this model, for evaluating the outcomes of co-productive mentoring relationships between young people and social work students. The reversal of the power dynamic between student and service user contributed to the unsettling of assumptions about each other and empathy for each other's role. The student authors reflect on learning about the child's experience that has influenced their practice. The mentor authors welcomed the opportunity to participate in the development of ‘young people friendly’ social workers. Suggestions are made as to how this model could be developed to contribute to a more systematic approach to the role of service users in mentoring, advising and contributing to the supervision process of students and social workers.