Simple least squares estimation versus best linear unbiased prediction

Necessary and sufficient conditions are developed for the simple least squares estimator to coincide with the best linear unbiased predictor. The conditions obtained are valid for a general linear model and are generalizations of the condition given by Watson (1972). Also, as a preliminary result, a new representation of the best linear unbiased predictor is established.     

Probability of ties and Markov property in discrete order statistics

It is well known that, in the continuous case, the probability that two consecutive order statistics are equal to zero, whereas it is not true when the distribution is discrete. It is, perhaps, for this reason that order statistics from discrete distributions has not been investigated in the literature as much as from a continuous distribution. The main purpose of this paper, therefore, is to obtain the probability of ties when the distribution is discrete. Also it is shown that, in the discrete case, the Markov property does not hold good. However, the order statistics from a geometric distribution forms a Markov chain.     

小震作用下结构可靠指标β的计算方法

以结构抗震分析的振型分解反应谱法及结构可靠度分析的Ｊ．Ｃ方法为基础，给出了结构在小震作用下可靠指标β的计算方法。     

Least squares theory for possibly singular models

In a recent paper, Scobey (1975) observed that the usual least squares theory can be applied even when the covariance matrix σ²V of Y in the linear model Y = Xβ + e is singular by choosing the Moore-Penrose inverse (V+XX′)⁺ instead of V^-1 when V is nonsingular. This result appears to be wrong. The appropriate treatment of the problem in the singular case is described.     

The analytic foundation of international economic modeling at the OECD

This article describes the OECD Secretariat's international linkage model, INTERLINK, built to assist various tasks, including the production of baseline international projections, the establishment and maintenance of international consistency of these projections, and the production of alternative projections and policy scenarios. It is thus concerned with the theory of the method of international forecasting and policy analysis, rather than the theory of forecasting itself. The article is divided into sections, which discuss the reasons for international economic modeling at OECD, the main tasks performed by the model, the technical requirements that it needs to satisfy, its present structure, and the experience with it.     

文学批评的改造与独立——从艾·阿·瑞恰兹到诺斯罗普·弗莱

在英美文学批评的发展过程中,有一个阶段十分重要。在这一阶段,批评不但摆脱了传统的印象式文学鉴赏形式,在文学内部被重新定义,而且逐渐被专业化和制度化,成为大学教育中的一门学科。这一过程中,瑞恰兹、克莱恩、兰色姆和弗莱几位批评家起到了至关重要的作用,文章讨论这几位批评家是如何重新定义文学批评并使之适应大学教育,并最终使批评独立于其他学科的。     

启蒙的现代传承、化生与超越——以瓦尔泽、格拉斯、哈贝马斯等为中心

本文凸显西方元思维的"逻各斯—秘索思"结构,强调德国思想史的"启蒙思脉—浪漫思脉"二元对立。同时选择作为德国知识精英代表的瓦尔泽、格拉斯、哈贝马斯,对其"文学话语—哲学话语"对话结构进行梳理,既凸显其为20世纪后期精英难以回避的"战争背景",同时也揭示他们面对历史浩劫与民族重生勇于承担的"智识勇气"和"创辟实绩"。最后,仍归结为一个基本追问,就是在至今为止的20世纪后半期的西方思想史进程中,虽然名家辈出,但并未能为人类发展提供明显亮色,以及德国学术、思想难得强势的事实,并追问其原因所在。同时引入中国文化传统的《易经》思维,尤其是凸显"一分为三"之原则,强调"启蒙调试"作为一个重要的"黄金分割点",使西方二元论思维获得一个立足于三的支撑点。如此,则格拉斯尝试以浪漫的手法来坚持启蒙的目标、瓦尔泽以浪漫的手段来调试启蒙的不足,都有其合理之处,相比较哲学话语系统的哈贝马斯对启蒙传统的"执善固执",则更显出文学话语的灵活性与诗性创发对于思想史发展的特殊意义。     

Identities, conflicting behavioural norms and the importance of job attributes

The paper empirically expounds the richness of the identity approach to labour-market behaviour by allowing individuals to experience identity conflict. Specifically, it investigates the relationship between the importance individuals attach to labour-market activities - which is influenced by the identity to which they adhere - and their preferences for job attributes. The analysis shows that individuals who consider labour-market success as instrumental for achieving their life goals tend to attach importance to job characteristics such as pay level and career and training opportunities. Individuals for whom non-labour-market activities are important and in conflict with labour-market activities are found to attach importance to the possibility of working on a convenient time schedule. Moreover, consistently with the identity approach to labour-market behaviour, men appear to resolve the conflict between career and non-work activities in favor of the former.Finally, unobserved factors that increase the desire to work part-time have a negative impact on the likelihood of attaching importance to the training and career opportunities offered by the job.     

“二十四孝”中的社会交换与传统孝道

同社会生活各领域相一致,"二十四孝"故事中,也包含着广泛的社会交换,包括孝行与"神灵之天"、"自然之天"和强势者的交换。在交换过程中,孝子获得社会地位或权力,也有的获得财富、社会赞誉或父母的慈爱。这些交换,对孝行具有正向的激励作用,但其中的以逆来顺受式的孝行,以求感动不慈父母,已远离"父慈子孝"的伦理原则,变成了单向的服从。若不加省察地照搬为教化样板,会产生许多弊端。     

宗教在公共领域的角色——哈贝马斯的后世俗反思

宗教在公共领域的角色是一个争议性课题,不少自由主义者认为信仰是私人的事情,所以宗教不应在公共领域中担任重要角色。早期的哈贝马斯也有类此看法,然而近年他对宗教持较同情和肯定的态度,甚或对"世俗主义社会"的自足性提出深刻的反思。在哈贝马斯与拉辛格主教(教宗本笃十六世)的对话里,哈贝马斯提出"后世俗社会"的新概念,批判僵化的和排斥宗教的世俗主义。一方面,哈贝马斯仍然坚持他的后形而上学和沟通伦理的观点,相信世俗自由社会可在宗教或形而上世界观之外找到基础。另一方面,他看到世俗理性的限制,并肯定整体而言宗教对维系健全的民主是有良性作用的。他甚至认为哲学必须愿意从神学身上学习。他相信在后世俗社会里,宗教会持续存在,而我们也要对宗教的真理存开放性。在现代社会中,哈贝马斯关于后世俗社会的构想,应有助于激烈争辩的多方能更和平、更理性地沟通。