Geography, demography, and early development

This paper explores the role of geography in early development. It presents a model where the odds of survival are higher in geographically favorable regions. In such regions, higher life expectancy prompts parents to devote more of their resources to old-age consumption and enables them to invest relatively more in the quantity and quality of their offspring. Investment in education, together with population growth, helps geographically-favorable economies to attain high levels of a more educated population that is necessary for sustained economic growth. The empirical evidence is generally supportive of the view that geographic attributes influenced regional population levels in Europe and its colonial offshoots around 1500 A.D. and that they affected population levels and educational attainment in low-income countries of the 1990s. For useful comments and suggestions I thank the editor, two anonymous referees, Daron Acemoglu, Ann Carlos, Phil Graves, Naci Mocan, Oded Stark, seminar participants at the University of Colorado at Boulder, the University of Colorado at Denver, and the 2002 Royal Economic Society Annual Conference. I owe a special debt of gratitude to my advisor Herschel Grossman who passed away in October 2004 after leaving his mark on many of us in the profession. The standard disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

艺术的魅力在于创新——巴赫六首无伴奏大提琴组曲剖析

巴赫六首无伴奏大提琴组曲是大提琴演奏曲目中的经典之作,它具有完善的理论依据和广阔的表现空间,从被发现到现在,一百多年来产生了许多不同的理解和演绎模式,并且随着岁月的流逝,它的魅力、影响力还在与日俱增,新的诠释、新的理解还在源源不断地问世.     

Earnings assimilation of immigrants in Norway – A reappraisal

The relative earnings growth for immigrants in Norway is computed. Unlike Hayfron (1998, this journal) we define immigrants by country of origin rather than citizenship and perform separate studies of immigrants from inside and outside the OECD region. Replicating Hayfron op.cit. we find that the earnings assimilation is considerably weaker. Further, we find that the earnings of OECD immigrants are comparable to those of natives, while Non-OECD immigrants earn considerably less than natives at the time of entry, but that their relative earnings improve gradually over time. Earnings of different immigrant cohorts converged from 1980 to 1990, indicating a non-linear rate of assimilation. Received: 7 April 2000/Accepted: 4 January 2001     

Microdata Access and Labor Market Research: The U. S. Experience

Summary: The paper illustrates the value of broad researcher access to survey and administrative microdata using examples drawn from the U. S. experience, outlining how analyses of trends in earnings inequality, poverty and employment dynamics using such data have benefited policy makers and contributed to improvements in statistical agency data products. Methods of facilitating researcher access, including the release of public use files, the use of licensing agreements, and the establishment of research data centers, are discussed. * The author thanks Anne Polivka, Marilyn Seastrom and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

《金枝》源起探疑

弗雷泽的《金枝》以内米湖畔的一个古老习俗展开,以世界各地的民间习俗为证,阐述了巫术与早期人类文化生活、宗教的关系。这个习俗是《金枝》赖以构建整个体系的基础,但它在祭司更替的问题上却出现了致命的漏洞,使弗雷泽据此得出的结论并不令人信服。     

Political assessment by international firms: Models or methodologies?

Political risk is defined in terms of managerial contingencies arising from political events and processes. A number of “first-generation” assessment methodologies are reviewed and compared in terms of their degree of structure (explicit model of process) and systemization (formalization of methodology). The paper concludes that, at this point, effective political assessment is more likely to result from explicit specification of causal relationships and implementation of systematic analytical procedures than from development of increased methodological sophistication or elegance.     

Rank-order tests for the parallelism of several regression surfaces

For testing the hypothesis that several (s?2) linear regression surfaces X_ki=α_k+β_kc_ki+Z_ki (k=1,…,s) are parallel to one another, i.e., β₁=?=β_s, a class of rank-order tests are considered. The tests are shown to be asymptotically distribution-free, and their asymptotic efficiency relative to the general likelihood ratio test is derived. Asymptotic optimality in the sense of Wald is also discussed.     

Estimating the distribution of one-dimensional discrete scan statistics viewed as extremes of 1-dependent stationary sequences

Discrete one-dimensional scan statistics can be viewed as extremes of 1-dependent stationary sequences. A result of Haiman [1999. First passage time for some stationary processes. Stochastic Process. Appl. 80, 231–248] provides approximations of the distributions of extremes of 1-dependent stationary sequences together with sharp bounds for the corresponding errors. We apply this result to scan statistics generated by Bernoulli r.v.'s and to the charge problem.     

A Comment on Ali Tas˛ıran's `Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and in the United States'

This note reviews and evaluates Taşıran's (1995) claim that estimated female wage effects on Swedish fertility dynamics reported by Heckman and Walker (1990) are not robust to the use of microwage data. The results reported here indicate that once individual wage measures have been purged of measurement error, estimated female wage effects are not sensitive to the introduction of microwages. The results reported by Heckman and Walker (1990) persist even with the use of microwage data. Received: 8 March 1996/Accepted: 4 December 2001 I thank Tom MaCurdy, Eric French and two anonymous referees for useful comments. This research was supported by NICHD grants HD-19226 and HD-28685. The usual disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann.     

Local response to planning mandates. The prevalence and utilization of needs assessment by human service agencies.

Federal and state needs assessment mandates have traditionally been criticized both by their originators and by the local human service agencies that are required to conduct these studies as part of the planning process. This paper presents some preliminary evidence that local opposition to assessment may be shrinking as agencies gain a new appreciation for the varied uses of assessment information. Using data from a sample of Wisconsin agencies the prevalence of assessments between 1979 and 1980 is described and the conditions surrounding the practice of needs assessment are outlined. Particular attention is given to factors that affect the utilization of needs assessment results, including the characteristics of the sponsoring agency, the attributes of the study, and the structure of the assessment process.