Sequence-compound estimation in scale-exponential families and speed of convergence

This paper deals with a sequence-compound estimation. The component problem is the squared error loss estimation of θ?[a,b] based on an observation X whose p.d.f. is of the form $\text{u(x)c(θ)}\text{exp}\text{(?}\text{x}\text{θ}\text{)}$. For each $\text{0<t<}\text{1}\text{2}$ a class of sequence-compound estimators $\text{ψ}\text{?}\text{=}\text{ψ}\text{?}{}_1\text{,}\text{ψ}\text{?}{}_2\text{,…)}$ is exhibited whose compound risk (average of risks) up to stage n differs from the Bayes envelope (in the component problem) w.r.t. the empiric distribution G_n of the parameters involved up to stage n by a quantity of order O(n^?δt) for a δ>0. It is also shown that at any stage i the difference of the risk of ψ?_i and the risk of the Bayes response w.r.t. G_i?1 is O(i^?δt). Examples of the above type of families are given where δ is min{1,$\text{2a}\text{b}$} and t is arbitrarily close to $\text{1}\text{2}$. Here it may be worthwhile to mention that a rate $\text{O}\text{(n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>?</mtext><mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{)}$ or better has not yet been obtained even in a very special family of densities.     

Job Creation and Destruction over the Business Cycles and the Impact on Individual Job Flows in Denmark 1980-2001*

Summary: Job creation and destruction should be considered as key success or failure criteria of the economic policy. Job creation and destruction are both effects of economic policy, the degree of out- and in-sourcing, and the ability to create new ideas that can be transformed into jobs. Job creation and destruction are results of businesses attempting to maximize their economic outcome. One of the costs of this process is that employees have to move from destroyed jobs to created jobs. The development of this process probably depends on labor protection laws, habits, the educational system, and the whole UI-system. A flexible labor market ensures that scarce labor resources are used where they are most in demand. Thus, labor turnover is an essential factor in a well-functioning economy. This paper uses employer-employee data from the Danish registers of persons and workplaces to show where jobs have been destroyed and where they have been created over the last couple of business cycles. Jobs are in general destroyed and created simultaneously within each industry, but at the same time a major restructuring has taken place, so that jobs have been lost in Textile and Clothing, Manufacturing and the other “old industries”, while jobs have been created in Trade and Service industries. Out-sourcing has been one of the causes. This restructuring has caused a tremendous pressure on workers and their ability to find employment in expanding sectors. The paper shows how this has been accomplished. Especially, the paper shows what has happened to employees involved. Have they become unemployed, employed in the welfare sector or where? * First draft of this paper was presented at Deutsche Statistische Woche, Frankfurt, September 2004. Thanks to two referees for instructive comments. Financial support from The Danish Social Science Research Council through CCP is acknowledged.     

L-Fuzzy子环的L-Fuzzy理想

给出了 L - Fuzzy子环的 L- Fuzzy理想的定义及刻划 ,并证明了在双诱导映射下 ,L -Fuzzy子环的 L- Fuzzy理想仍是 L- Fuzzy子环的 L- Fuzzy理想     

词汇知识广度和深度对二语阅读理解贡献力比较研究

通过分析60名英语学习者的一些数据可比较词汇知识广度和深度对二语阅读理解的贡献力。多元回归分析表明，词汇知识广度和深度对二语阅读理解有较强的同等预测力。在词汇知识广度层面，接受性和产出性词汇量对二语阅读理解的贡献力几乎相同，但是在词汇知识深度层面，聚合知识的贡献力则明显大于一词多义知识。二语教学中对词汇知识的各个成分均应给予重视，尤其要重视一词多义知识等二语学习者掌握薄弱的成分。     

母语迁移与二语词汇习得

母语迁移是影响二语词汇习得的一个重要因素。研究表明母语迁移是二语词汇学习的必经阶段,二语词汇语音、词形、语义、搭配以及学习策略等方面都会受到来自母语的正迁移、负迁移,回避或过度运用的影响。学习者对迁移各种表现形式的意识和不断积累的目的语文化知识将有助于缩短这个过程,提高二语词汇学习的效率。     

Evaluating a human service program: Employing the judicial evaluation model

The emergence of adversarial models as an approach to formative and summative evaluations is gaining recognition among educational research professionals. The implementation of the Judicial Evaluation Model (JEM), as described in this article, is the first application to a human service employment and training program. Evaluation questions raised within the study were designed to assess the efficacy of linkage arrangements between the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) prime sponsors and education service providers in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The four stages of the JEM and its application to CETA are discussed, the panel findings are reported along with noted pitfalls and strengths, suggested guidelines for implementation, and a few recommendations.     

经济系统混沌时序重构的分析和应用

在国内外学者应用L egendre 坐标法重构一类经济动力系统的相空间, 研究了时序间隔S 的取值范围, 讨论了时序间隔S对相空间重构工作的影响, 并用所提方法重构了这类经济动力 系统的吸引子, 算例表明该方法是有效的.     

藜营养器官的形态解剖学研究

对藜的营养器官进行了解剖学研究,结果发现:藜的根中木质部发达,导管数量多,口径大;茎的髓发达,表明贮存能力强;叶的栅栏组织及海绵组织均排列疏松,表明贮水能力强。在茎和叶中发现簇生的小细胞,其功能不详。     

大学英语教学应重视语用能力的培养

语用能力的培养在目前大学英语教学中占有很重的分量，它关系到学生能否成功进行口语交流。从语言学的角度对当前大学生中经常出现的语用失误进行分析，并针对大学英语教学中的不同环节提出培养学生语用能力的对策，为现阶段的大学英语教学实践提供了理论依据。     

张学良研究中的人性取向问题

张学良研究在民国人物研究领域成果是较为丰硕的,但检讨以往研究就会发现,和其他民国人物研究一样也存在着"简单化"、"脸谱化"倾向。导致这一现象的原因很多,但从学术上分析,研究视角的狭窄、研究取向的单一恐怕是最为主要的。为丰富张学良研究,人性视角不失为一个重要的研究取向:在以往偏重于政治、宏观研究的基础上,以马克思主义人性观为指导,调整研究主体姿态,从人所具有的自我性、历史性、总体性和主体性中把握人物的复杂性,并以"考古"的精神,走进人物的心灵,去发现构成"宏观"的微观、托起"崇高"的平凡、支配政治性的人性。如真能做到这样,无疑有助于研究的深化,或许能成为未来一个时期的研究指向。