Hypotheses testing: Poisson versus stress-release

We consider the problem of hypotheses testing with the basic simple hypothesis: observed sequence of points corresponds to stationary Poisson process with known intensity against a composite one-sided parametric alternative that this is a stress-release point process. The underlying family of measures is locally asymptotically quadratic and we describe the behavior of score-function, likelihood ratio and Wald tests in the asymptotics of large samples. The results of numerical simulations are presented.     

Characteristic function estimation of non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes

Continuous non-Gaussian stationary processes of the OU-type are becoming increasingly popular given their flexibility in modelling stylized features of financial series such as asymmetry, heavy tails and jumps. The use of non-Gaussian marginal distributions makes likelihood analysis of these processes unfeasible for virtually all cases of interest. This paper exploits the self-decomposability of the marginal laws of OU processes to provide explicit expressions of the characteristic function which can be applied to several models as well as to develop efficient estimation techniques based on the empirical characteristic function. Extensions to OU-based stochastic volatility models are provided.     

中国M2/GDP水平的国际比较与畸高的成因探析

M2/GDP本是衡量一国经济货币化程度的重要指标.文章通过国际比较发现,中国不但存在M2/GDP持续上升的普遍性问题,而且这一问题相时其他主要经济国家表现得更为异常.造成中国M2/GDP畸高的原因可以归结为货币化论、货币沉淀论及货币反替代论.M2/GDP的比例越高,整体支付风险越大,任由这种局面发展,央行的信用创造能力和银行体系的支付能力都将逐渐蚀空.文章提出提高我国金融配置效率、加快金融体制改革和现行外汇体制改革是有效解决我国M2/GDP畸高的必经之路.     

First‐order bias correction for fractionally integrated time series

Most of the long memory estimators for stationary fractionally integrated time series models are known to experience non‐negligible bias in small and finite samples. Simple moment estimators are also vulnerable to such bias, but can easily be corrected. In this article, the authors propose bias reduction methods for a lag‐one sample autocorrelation‐based moment estimator. In order to reduce the bias of the moment estimator, the authors explicitly obtain the exact bias of lag‐one sample autocorrelation up to the order n⁻¹. An example where the exact first‐order bias can be noticeably more accurate than its asymptotic counterpart, even for large samples, is presented. The authors show via a simulation study that the proposed methods are promising and effective in reducing the bias of the moment estimator with minimal variance inflation. The proposed methods are applied to the northern hemisphere data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 476–493; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

城市化战略中的城镇规模问题研究

我国现有的城市规模与分布存在着诸如规模分散、集中度较低、小城市比例过大、在发展与建设上盲目追求扩大城市规模而导致城市布局不合理等诸多问题。合理确定我国小城镇的适宜规模,对促进我国城市化与经济社会的良性互动发展有着极为重要的战略意义。我国城市化发展战略中的城镇规模与布局可采用比照法,专家意见法等方法来确定。     

关于俄罗斯灵魂的对话——高尔基与别尔嘉耶夫民族文化心理观的比较考察

俄罗斯作家高尔基和宗教哲学家别尔嘉耶夫都曾就俄罗斯民族灵魂的双重性、民族心理和民族命运的关系、集体主义和个性主义等问题分别进行过探讨,其观点和结论远不是一致的,但又具有某些联系和交叉,从而构成一种既彼此冲突、又互补互释的对话格局.考察他们各自的见解及其对话关系.对于深入认识20世纪前期俄罗斯文学精神与思想成果,有着显而易见的意叉.     

紫花苜蓿的生产技术与畜牧养殖的利用价值

紫花苜蓿以其产草量高,草质优良,适口性好,营养价值高列牧草之首,堪称牧草之王。它耐寒抗旱,耐瘠薄,适应性强,是世界上栽培最早,种植最广的牧草,是各种牲畜最喜食的牧草。本文就紫花苜蓿的栽培技术和在畜牧养殖中的利用价值作了简述。     

伦敦语言学派的兴起及其流变

从理论语言学史看,伦敦学派经历了从马林诺夫斯基人类语言学到弗斯语境语言学,再到韩礼德系统功能语言学的发展。后现代哲学使哲学的终极性基础,亦即使认识主客观对象的途径和方法得到根本的转换(转换成符号),是西方哲学中最重要的思想事件,即所谓"语言学转向",我们无妨说,韩礼德80年代后对他的系统功能语言学的推进,是以符号中介论为其深层理论背景的,或者说与"语言学转向"是一致的。     

货币反替代视角下的M2/GDP畸高研究

改革开放以来,中国的M2/GDP不断攀升,已成为宏观经济领域的一个难解之谜.即使在流动性过剩、通货膨胀升高、经济持续过热的2007年,M2/GDP仍然高达1.6166,这就与以往学者研究结论出现了矛盾.基于货币反替代视角对中国M2/GDP畸高进行分析及实证检验,研究结果表明:过高的外汇储备以及在现有的外汇管理体制下,我国冲销机制不力是导致M2/GDP升高的主要原因.因此必须对现行的外汇管理体制加以改革,有效降低M2/GDP水平,央行的信用创造能力和银行体系的支付能力才能得以改善,宏观经济和资本市场才能进一步稳定健康发展.     

关于外资并购中国有股权定价的一项调查分析

近年来,外资并购我国国有企业的事件不断增多,外资并购的范围也不断扩大,外资并购中的国有股权定价问题愈来愈引起人们的关注。本文在对我国外资并购实践中曾采取定价法进行评价的基础上,针对外资并购的目的、影响、定价基础、定价影响因素等方面设计了一份调查问卷,通过分析得出了一些有意义的结论,并对外资并购中国有股权定价应注意的问题得出了几点启示。