基于心智模型的恐怖主义袭击扩展式演化博弈分析

政府反恐措施与恐怖分子袭击手段存在着相互观察、适应性演化的过程。本文首先构建了政府作为先行动者、恐怖分子作为后行动者的斯塔克伯格博弈模型,进一步建立了恐怖袭击问题的扩展式演化博弈模型。由于扩展式演化博弈的均衡分析需要考虑代际内和代际间不同层次的信念学习,造成了演化分析的复杂性。本文将"心智模型"概念引入到演化博弈,采取了心智模型演化解的分析方法,得出了简化后的演化均衡解。最后,结合新疆墨玉县6.28暴恐事件进行算例分析,比较怀特流形演化解和心智模型演化解的差异。心智模型演化解的结果表明,根据恐怖分子群体中选择袭击比例是否高于临界值,政府策略收敛到防御或者不防御。该求解方法通过将普遍接受的社会规范引入到演化过程分析,不仅简化了怀特流形的分析过程,而且均衡解展示了更为丰富的、更为切合实际管理问题的演化特征。     

Data envelopment analysis in the presence of measurement error: case study from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators® (NDNQI®)

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is the most commonly used approach for evaluating healthcare efficiency [B. Hollingsworth, The measurement of efficiency and productivity of health care delivery. Health Economics 17(10) (2008), pp. 1107–1128], but a long-standing concern is that DEA assumes that data are measured without error. This is quite unlikely, and DEA and other efficiency analysis techniques may yield biased efficiency estimates if it is not realized [B.J. Gajewski, R. Lee, M. Bott, U. Piamjariyakul, and R.L. Taunton, On estimating the distribution of data envelopment analysis efficiency scores: an application to nursing homes’ care planning process. Journal of Applied Statistics 36(9) (2009), pp. 933–944; J. Ruggiero, Data envelopment analysis with stochastic data. Journal of the Operational Research Society 55 (2004), pp. 1008–1012]. We propose to address measurement error systematically using a Bayesian method (Bayesian DEA). We will apply Bayesian DEA to data from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators^® to estimate nursing units’ efficiency. Several external reliability studies inform the posterior distribution of the measurement error on the DEA variables. We will discuss the case of generalizing the approach to situations where an external reliability study is not feasible.     

加拿大的卫生政策及其对中国卫生改革的借鉴

卫生政策在改善与增进人口健康中发挥了重要作用。文章通过对加拿大卫生系统相关立法进程的系统回顾与分析,发现加拿大医疗系统的特点是公共筹资而非私人运作,而全覆盖、可携带性、综合性、可及性以及公共管理等五项基础性原则保证了加拿大卫生系统的成功运行。文章着重回答了有哪些政策可以借鉴,如何借鉴,以及哪些政策的不良后果可以避免等。     

大学生心理健康问题及对策探析

心理健康是大学生健康成长的重要前提,但我国高校大学生已成为心理弱势群体。从大学生心理问题的现象入手,对其现状和原因进行研究,在此基础上提出了一些建设性的对策与建议。     

社会支持因素对城市老年人健康自评的影响——以北京市朝阳区为例

利用2010年北京市朝阳区城乡老年人口状况调查数据,应用Ordinal Logit回归方法分析了社会支持对我国城市老年人健康自评的影响。研究结果表明,在情感性支持方面,子女孝顺、家庭和睦对老年人的健康自评存在积极影响;在实质性支持方面,社会保障收入高低、看病是否方便和医疗保障状况也都对老年人的健康自评存在影响。作为控制变量的人口社会经济特征和客观健康指标也影响到城市老年人的健康自评。     

“NP＋的＋VP”结构语义、语用功能浅析

通过回顾语言学界对“NP＋的＋VP”结构的认识和争议,详细分析了“NP＋的＋VP”的结构类型,并依据配价理论和心理空间理论考察了此结构的语义、语用功能,认为能够进入此结构的VP一般包含较多与动作有关的信息,二价三价动词数量占多数,“NP＋的＋VP”形成是语用上NP与VP相互选择的结果。     

幽默言语认知心理机制的关联及整合

集中于幽默言语本质研究的诸多理论在阐释幽默产生和消解的底层认知运作机制时都表现出了一定的局限性,而两大认知理论——关联理论和概念整合理论给言语幽默解读的心理过程提供了较好的认知模型。关联理论认为对幽默言语理解的心理认知机制来自于寻求幽默的认知语境的最佳关联及最大关联性与最佳关联性之间的反差。概念整合理论从心理空间映射的角度解释了幽默言语的解读过程还牵涉到概念合成和层创结构。研究表明,两大理论具有互补性,二者的理论整合可以更好地揭示幽默效应的认知心理机制。     

Reflections on the Work of Professor Selma Fraiberg

This paper reviews the work of Professor Selma Fraiberg who became a leading figure in the field of infant mental health. Born in 1918 she first received an MSW in Social Work and then undertook her Analytic Training in Detroit Michigan. While she maintained her identity as a social worker throughout her life, she integrated insights from the fields of social work, psychoanalysis and developmental and ego psychology in her research and practice. This paper traces her development as a clinician, researcher, and educator. Three cases describe her ability to integrate social work methodologies with analytic insights. The cases describe the treatment of a latency age child at a time of social change, a clinical research study of the developmental risk of children blind from birth, and a groundbreaking study in the field of infant mental health. Her study of infants at developmental risk focused on the parent /infant relationship and parents were included in the treatment process so that they could become more attuned to their young child. Her work highlighted the intergenerational issues that shaped the parental capacity for empathic nurturance between parent and child. The article Ghosts in the Nursery incorporated the major theoretical concepts of the new theoretical approach to treatment and is still much read in graduate programs today. Although extensive new research has added to the field of infant mental health, her contributions are still relevant to research and practice today.     

Differences in white-nonwhite community mental health center service utilization patterns

Routinely collected computerized data were used to study the process of service delivery in terms of admission patterns, type and quantity of services rendered, and status at termination for whites and nonwhites in two community mental health centers. Social area analysis techniques were employed to control for socio-economic status, ethnicity and life style variables, and an epidemiologic model was used to analyze admission and service delivery rate differences. It was found that nonwhite admission rates were at least twice as great as white rates. Service delivery rates to the population at large were considerably greater for nonwhites than for whites. Delivery of direct services within the centers differed for whites and nonwhites, but no consistent trends emerged when types and amounts of services rendered were analyzed, controlling for sex, ethnicity, age, diagnosis and social area. Disruption of care indices were greater for nonwhites than for whites. Highlighted were some of the complexities involved in interpreting results of utilization studies.     

A conceptual framework for the study of work and mental health

Abstract

The key features which influence mental health both in jobs and unemployment are brought together within a single perspective. Three principal axes of affective well-being are identified as warranting investigation, and it is suggested that nine environmental features are of primary importance. The impact of these features on mental health is viewed as analogous to the influence of vitamins on physical health, with an explicit non-linearity in the relationship. This ‘vitamin model’ is extended to permit examination of individual differences (for example, in terms of baseline values and specific matching characteristics), and empirical evidence is summarized. It is concluded from previous research that job features do not interact synergistically in relation to employee well-being, although this possibility may not yet have been adequately tested. The framework is suggested to be adequately comprehensive, but, as is the case with other models, it requires development in respect of the specific mechanisms operating between environmental features and mental health.