Bayesian optimal design for changepoint problems

We investigate Bayesian optimal designs for changepoint problems. We find robust optimal designs which allow for arbitrary distributions before and after the change, arbitrary prior densities on the parameters before and after the change, and any log‐concave prior density on the changepoint. We define a new design measure for Bayesian optimal design problems as a means of finding the optimal design. Our results apply to any design criterion function concave in the design measure. We illustrate our results by finding the optimal design in a problem motivated by a previous clinical trial. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 495–513; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

以就业为导向的俄罗斯中等职业教育改革的特色及存在的问题

俄罗斯在社会转型时期对中等职业教育面临的困境进行了深刻的思考,并针对苏联时期就存在的弊端以及新出现的问题进行了大刀阔斧的改革,从而使其呈现出了一系列鲜明的特色,但同时也存在着一些不容忽视的问题。关注和研究俄罗斯中等职业教育的改革,从中总结出带有规律性的经验教训,会丰富我国中等职业教育的改革与发展方面的理论研究。     

绩效技术视野下的中职计算机课堂教学

绩效技术在企业员工培训和企业人力资源开发等方面有很成功的应用。将绩效技术引入教育教学工作中,就要培养整体改革意识,跳出现有系统的边界,思考问题,寻求解决方案。采用这种思维方式开展工作,无论是课堂教学,还是教育研究和实践的成效都会更加显著。     

Spatio‐temporal modelling of disease mapping of rates

This paper studies generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of geographic and temporal variability of disease rates. This class of models adopts spatially correlated random effects and random temporal components. Spatio‐temporal models that use conditional autoregressive smoothing across the spatial dimension and autoregressive smoothing over the temporal dimension are developed. The model also accommodates the interaction between space and time. However, the effect of seasonal factors has not been previously addressed and in some applications (e.g., health conditions), these effects may not be negligible. The authors incorporate the seasonal effects of month and possibly year as part of the proposed model and estimate model parameters through generalized estimating equations. The model provides smoothed maps of disease risk and eliminates the instability of estimates in low‐population areas while maintaining geographic resolution. They illustrate the approach using a monthly data set of the number of asthma presentations made by children to Emergency Departments (EDs) in the province of Alberta, Canada, during the period 2001–2004. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 698–715; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

Information seeking in secondary schools: A multilevel network approach

In this study, we investigate information seeking interactions in secondary schools from a multilevel network approach. Based on network-related theories, we examine the facilitating role of formal subunits. We apply exponential random graph models for multilevel networks and summarize our findings by using a meta-analysis technique. Our results indicate that formal subunits (e.g. subject departments) can, to some extent, facilitate interactions, in loosely coupled organizations (e.g. secondary schools). Finally, this study shows that a multilevel network approach can provide a more informative representation of information seeking ties in knowledge-intensive organizations.     

Truncated regular vines in high dimensions with application to financial data

Using only bivariate copulas as building blocks, regular vine copulas constitute a flexible class of high‐dimensional dependency models. However, the flexibility comes along with an exponentially increasing complexity in larger dimensions. In order to counteract this problem, we propose using statistical model selection techniques to either truncate or simplify a regular vine copula. As a special case, we consider the simplification of a canonical vine copula using a multivariate copula as previously treated by Heinen & Valdesogo ( 2009 ) and Valdesogo ( 2009 ). We validate the proposed approaches by extensive simulation studies and use them to investigate a 19‐dimensional financial data set of Norwegian and international market variables. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 68–85; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

尼赫鲁家族在新世纪的复兴:从索尼亚到拉胡尔

2007年索尼亚之子拉胡尔在北方邦巡回竞选是尼赫鲁家族在新世纪复兴的标志。剖析现国大党主席索尼亚走上从政道路和领导2004年大选胜利与不担总理的前因后果,从中探讨尼赫鲁家族衰落的接班人问题与复杂的宗教党派和执政失误等因素,可见尼赫鲁家族在新世纪的复兴与尼赫鲁家族在印度所作的贡献与威望及索尼亚的种种努力是分不开的。     

抚州市中小学环境教育状况的调查与研究

环境保护教育为本,环境教育在基础教育中意义重大。笔者采用问卷调查和实地调研的方法,就抚州市中小学当前环境教育的落实情况和实效性开展了调查。抚州市中小学的环境教育相对滞后,学校未把环境教育摆在应有的位置,中小学教师、学生的环境意识、环境知识水平总体较低,学生没有形成良好的环境行为习惯,且城乡差异大,农村地区学生的环境教育几近空白,当前必须切实加强全市教师的环境意识、知识培训和学生的环境教育,提高环境教育的实效。     

Controlling Bayes directional false discovery rate in random effects model

Starting with a decision theoretic formulation of simultaneous testing of null hypotheses against two-sided alternatives, a procedure controlling the Bayesian directional false discovery rate (BDFDR) is developed through controlling the posterior directional false discovery rate (PDFDR). This is an alternative to Lewis and Thayer [2004. A loss function related to the FDR for random effects multiple comparison. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 125, 49–58.] with a better control of the BDFDR. Moreover, it is optimum in the sense of being the non-randomized part of the procedure maximizing the posterior expectation of the directional per-comparison power rate given the data, while controlling the PDFDR. A corresponding empirical Bayes method is proposed in the context of one-way random effects model. Simulation study shows that the proposed Bayes and empirical Bayes methods perform much better from a Bayesian perspective than the procedures available in the literature.     

Testing for lack of dependence in the functional linear model

The authors consider the linear model Y_n = ψX_n + ?_n relating a functional response with explanatory variables. They propose a simple test of the nullity of ψ based on the principal component decomposition. The limiting distribution of their test statistic is chi‐squared, but this distribution is also an excellent approximation in finite samples. The authors illustrate their method using data from terrestrial magnetic observatories.