Asymmetric Forecast Information and the Value of Demand Observation in Repeated Procurement

In many supply chain relationships that continue over multiple periods, information about the hidden properties of the supply chain partners can be revealed throughout the course of the relationship. This article examines how the availability of such information affects the contracting scheme between a supplier and his manufacturer in a relationship that persists over several selling seasons. At the beginning of the first selling season, the manufacturer observes private information about the demand distribution, whereas the supplier who is less familiar with the market is endowed only with a prior belief about the market condition. When the supplier cannot observe the demand realization during the first selling period, she offers a contract that induces the manufacturer to reveal the market condition in the first selling season. However, the opportunity for the supplier to observe demand realization can result in the supplier offering the manufacturer a simple contract that does not induce the manufacturer to reveal his private information during the first selling season. In the latter case, the supplier observes the demand realization and designs the second period contract based on this information. We show that when the supplier chooses to offer such a contract, the manufacturer becomes worse‐off, and it has an ambiguous effect on the performance of the supply chain.     

北京奥林匹克公园中心区地下交通联系通道地面建筑设计的思考

北京奥林匹克公园中心区地下交通联系通道地面建筑由于位置突出、功能要求苛刻,故方案选定十分慎重。本文通过分析上述方案设计过程,对如下几个理论问题进行了探讨：①通道地面建筑的主要类型和特点;②建筑设计一般原则在通道地面建筑设计中的具体运用,提出实现功能是设计的出发点,坚持不断创新是设计的核心,解决设计理念与实践的矛盾是设计的最基本原则;③结合园林景观设计理论,强调了通道地面建筑与周边环境的协调关系。文章目的是探讨建筑设计理论应如何具体指导设计实践。     

浅议大型体育赛事对于地区品牌打造的意义

以贵州省黔西南州召开的第一届全国山地运动会为切入点,就全国山地运动会召开给黔西南州带来的巨大社会效应和经济效应进行了论述。结果表明,大型体育赛事的举办对于打造地区品牌和促进地区经济、社会、文化的良性发展起到了积极的作用。从更深的意义上来说,黔西南州举办此次赛事为西部地区的中型城市打造地区品牌提供了一种有益的借鉴。     

科技奥运理念的现代人文价值旨归

科技奥运理念是北京奥运会提出的三大理念中一个具有人文价值的科学理念．科技奥运是中国传统文化与科学精神相融合的结晶,人文精神是科技奥运的基石和发展,而科技奥运则是奥林匹克人文精神的现代体现．     

后奥运时期提升北京市干部素质能力的有关问题——基于朝阳区干部素质能力的调查

北京奥运会为首都带来了新的发展机遇,但也带来了新的挑战。北京市的领导干部是否具备应对这些挑战的能力,干部的素质能力能否适应形势发展的要求,这关乎未来经济的发展、民生的改善和社会的稳定。本文在分析后奥运时期北京市经济社会发展面临的种种挑战的基础上,结合朝阳区干部素质能力问卷调查结果,提出了北京市干部素质能力提高的重点,以及干部培训工作中应注意的几个问题。     

奥运经济:北京的创新与发展

北京通过主办2008年奥运会,借势发展奥运经济,在八个方面取得了一系列的成就。这些做法进一步丰富了奥运经济的概念。     

Games of Incomplete Information Without Common Knowledge Priors

We relax the assumption that priors are common knowledge, in the standard model of games of incomplete information. We make the realistic assumption that the players are boundedly rational: they base their actions on finite-order belief hierarchies. When the different layers of beliefs are independent of each other, we can retain Harsányi's type-space, and we can define straightforward generalizations of Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE) and Rationalizability in our context. Since neither of these concepts is quite satisfactory, we propose a hybrid concept, Mirage Equilibrium, providing us with a practical tool to work with inconsistent belief hierarchies. When the different layers of beliefs are correlated, we must enlarge the type-space to include the parametric beliefs. This presents us with the difficulty of the inherent openness of finite belief subspaces. Appealing to bounded rationality once more, we posit that the players believe that their opponent holds a belief hierarchy one layer shorter than they do and we provide alternative generalizations of BNE and Rationalizability. Finally, we show that, when beliefs are degenerate point beliefs, the definition of Mirage Equilibrium coincides with that of the generalized BNE. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

关于奥林匹克和谐大家庭构建的探讨

前国际奥委会主席萨马兰奇及其领导下的国际奥委会通过20多年的改革创新,从加强国际奥委会三大支柱之闻的团结、改革《奥林匹克宪章》。扩大奥运队伍、以人为本,关心爱护运动员和解决政治抵制、遏制腐败四个方面对奥林匹克和谐大家庭的掏建作出了巨大贡献。认真总结这些历史经验,对今后奥林匹克运动的健康发展具有深远的意义。     

2007年广州亚运新闻报道的四个转变

2007年,关于广州亚运会筹备活动的新闻报道成功实现了四个转变,即聚焦从多哈转向广州,内容从单点转向多点,报道形式由单篇转向专题和专栏,报道的重心则由高层转向公众。2007全年的亚运报道也存在一些不均衡现象,需要在2008年的报道中力求改进。     

奥运会转播权营销创新对2010广州亚运会的启示

通过对奥运会转播权营销创新经验的总结和对多届亚运会转播权营销的比较研究,提出了创新亚运会转播权营销运作模式的若干建议。(1)将亚洲的48个国家和地区划分为三种类型,第一类为经济较为发达或体育优势明显的国家或地区,第二类为目前所属亚广联的国家和地区成员,第三类为第一类和亚广联成员国家和地区以外的国家、地区。针对三类不同的国家和地区逐步建立亚运会转播的市场竞争机制和类比增长定价机制。(2)在非亚洲地区实行灵活的电视转播权销售机制。包括采用长期的区域(或国家)中介机构缴纳保证金代理销售模式;招、投标与议价相结合模式;按需定制、化整为零、薄利多销模式;强化非奥运会项目电视转播的营销模式;直接购买、广告置换和电视节目置换相结合模式。(3)做好亚运会新媒体转播销售工作。