The Effects of Early Institutionalization and Foster Care Intervention on Children's Social Behaviors at the Age of Eight

The present study compared the social behaviors of eight‐year‐old previously institutionalized Romanian children from the Bucharest Early Intervention Project (BEIP) in two groups: (1) children randomized to foster care homes (FCG), and (2) children randomized to care as usual (remaining in institutions) (CAUG). Children were observed interacting with an age‐ and gender‐matched unfamiliar, non‐institutionalized peer from the community during six interactive tasks, and their behavior was coded for speech reticence, social engagement, task orientation, social withdrawal, and conversational competence. Group comparisons revealed that FCG children were rated as significantly less reticent during a speech task than CAUG children. For CAUG children, longer time spent in institutional care was related to greater speech reticence and lower social engagement. Using an actor–partner interdependence model, CAUG children's behaviors, but not FCG, were found to influence the behavior of unfamiliar peers. These findings are the first to characterize institutionalized children's observed social behaviors toward new peers during middle childhood and highlight the positive effects of foster care intervention in the social domain.     

Mean square prediction error for long-memory processes

ARFIMA (p, d, q) processes. In particular we obtain the (asymptotic) mean square prediction error when the parameters of the process are either known or estimated in the cases both of correct and misspecified model. Some Monte Carlo experiments confirm the validity of the asymptotic results. Received: August 6, 1999; revised version: June 26, 2000     

俄藏敦煌文献《新集文词九经抄》 写本缀合与研究

《新集文词九经抄》是敦煌文献中保存的一种蒙学读本,是具有家训及书抄性类书的特殊教材。学术界对保存在英藏、法藏敦煌文献中的《新庥文词九经抄》写本做了研究,但是保存于俄藏敦煌文献中的《新集文词九经抄》却很少有人涉及。俄藏敦煌文献中保存有八个卷号写本,其中六个误定成《百行章》,本文经过对这些写本的抄写字体、内容等研究,认为是一卷《新集文词九比抄》分裂所致,可以拼接缀合为三块,与英法藏本不能互为渊源底本,出自张氏归义军初期的改煌文士之手。     

公共权力的扭曲与裂变分析

公共权力的连续、有序、稳定传递是政局稳定的关键。权力在实际传递中,往往由于多种原因而致使权力失真、变形、扭曲、中断或停止,形成权力裂变。权力裂变是由权力变异、文化冲突、执行偏差等多种因素所造成。权力裂变虽是一种不良现象,但通过权力调整可以减少或弥补其所产生的不利影响。     

论高等学校处分权的行使及规范

高等学校依法享有自主管理的权利,对本校违纪学生给予一定的处罚是十分必要的。学校执行纪律的结果必然会对学生的权益和前途产生相应的影响。以前,我们只考虑学校行使维持校园秩序的权利是十分必要的,应当被支持和尊重,却很少研究和思考学校行使权利的方法和程序是否合法、是否公正。伴随着中国民主与法治建设的发展和提高,我们在从事高校学生管理工作的过程中,越来越清醒地认识到,高等学校行使权利,必须以合法、公正为前提,否则也会导致权利的滥用。     

Actors,legitimation and cultures of social work*

This article is based on my study of rationality and language games in social work. The study focuses on the actors of social welfare and health care. Included are the heads and social workers of public welfare and health care agencies and institutions, officials of voluntary organizations, and activists in social change-oriented action groups. The objects of this study also differ with respect of their official status, area of responsibility, and position at work. The study tries to increase the understanding of the basic rationalities which are guiding social work as part of the daily routines, and of how the actors articulate and legitimate themselves, one another and the others, i.e. clients etc. The empirical data were collected using questionnaries. The study shows that organizational affiliation and area of concern do not bring about a systematic variation in the views of the respondents. The results then indicate the existence of a specific culture, a code of social work. The actors legitimate themselves according to system rationality. The system is considered to be outside the immediate scene of social work practice, which is articulated according to life-world premises. In client-centered social work, the external controlling and administrating system rationality threatens life-world aspects by neglecting social work as a process based on involvement, dialogue and change.     

A bayesian analysis of trend determination in economic time series

In this paper we provide a comprehensive Bayesian posterior analysis of trend determination in general autoregressive models. Multiple lag autoregressive models with fitted drifts and time trends as well as models that allow for certain types of structural change in the deterministic components are considered. We utilize a modified information matrix-based prior that accommodates stochastic nonstationarity, takes into account the interactions between long-run and short-run dynamics and controls the degree of stochastic nonstationarity permitted. We derive analytic posterior densities for all of the trend determining parameters via the Laplace approximation to multivariate integrals. We also address the sampling properties of our posteriors under alternative data generating processes by simulation methods. We apply our Bayesian techniques to the Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data and various stock price and dividend data. Contrary to DeJong and Whiteman (1989a,b,c), we do not find that the data overwhelmingly favor the existence of deterministic trends over stochastic trends. In addition, we find evidence supporting Perron's (1989) view that some of the Nelson and Plosser data are best construed as trend stationary with a change in the trend function occurring at 1929.     

A new class of multivariate skew distributions with applications to bayesian regression models

Abstract: The authors develop a new class of distributions by introducing skewness in multivariate elliptically symmetric distributions. The class, which is obtained by using transformation and conditioning, contains many standard families including the multivariate skew‐normal and t distributions. The authors obtain analytical forms of the densities and study distributional properties. They give practical applications in Bayesian regression models and results on the existence of the posterior distributions and moments under improper priors for the regression coefficients. They illustrate their methods using practical examples.