MFN tariff treatment of imports from China: Effects on U.S. employment

This article estimates the effects on U.S. output and employment of granting most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff treatment to imports from the People's Republic of China (PRC). Import demand elasticities are used to estimate changes in imports resulting from the lower tariff rates. A highly disaggregated U.S. input-output table and labor-output ratios are used to convert changes in imports into changes in domestic output and employment at a detailed sectorial level. U.S. import restraints on the textile and apparel industry are incorporated into the analysis. The article explores the implications of increased imports from the PRC for U.S., PRC, and LDC policy makers.     

World Development and the Restructuring of the Industrial Economies

This paper reports on the joint SPM/CRANEC Catholic University of Milan symposium on “World Development and the Restructuring of Industrial Economies” held at Bellagio, Lake Como, Italy during the week of 10–15 September 1979. The symposium was organized to discuss the adjustments required by the industrialized economies when adapting to the changes inherent in present world development trends, as well as to help define national and international policy measures that might be used to facilitate the restructuring process. This report reviews the key issues, alternative strategies for restructuring, and policy measures for restructuring discussed at the symposium. It also offers some conclusions based on the results of the symposium.     

Commodity prices and the world distribution of income

Some advocates of a new international economic order recommend raising prices of commodities exported by developing countries as a means of reducing the inequality of world income distribution. A simulation model using commodity trade data and income distribution data for 68 industrial and developing countries examines this policy alternative. Initial data compilation reveals that internal inequality is as important as international: The world income share of the poorest 40% of people would be twice as high in the absence of intracountry inequality. Calculations using actual price experience in the “great inflation” of 1972–1975 show that despite the large relative price changes for some commodities (especially oil), these changes left the world size distribution of income virtually unchanged. Separate policy simulations show that even a quadrupling of the price of ali “equalizing” commodities (those mainly exported by LDCs) would leave the size distribution of world income practically unaltered (even under optimistic assumptions about intracountry distributional incidence), although some individual LDCs would gain. Increasing commodity prices therefore appears to be an ineffective means of increasing international equity, quite apart from questions about the feasibility of cartels or commodity agreements.     

White and nonwhite trends in first birth timing: Comparisons using vital registration and current population surveys

The magnitude of racial differences in first birth timing vary greatly depending upon the data sources from which they are estimated. Vital registration data (Heuser 1976; with updates from the National Center for Health Statistics 1974–1990) show that in recent years nonwhites have higher risks of a first birth at virtually all ages compared to whites. As a result very large and historically novel differentials in childlessness are forecast using these data (see Rindfuss et al. 1988; Chen & Morgan 1991; Morgan & Chen 1992). However, retrospective fertility history data collected from the 1980, 1985 and 1990 Current Population Surveys (CPS) suggest much smaller racial differences in completed childlessness and isolate racial differences in probabilities of first births at young ages. Differences also exist between theses two series for whites prior to the mid-1960s but not afterwards. Reasons for these differing estimates are suggested and examined. We conclude that a substantial portion of the differences result from an accumulation of biases in the vital registration estimates that affect primarily estimates of first birth timing. Thus, the CPS data provide a more firm basis for racial comparisons of first birth timing.     

Community identity and language change in North American Anabaptist communities

Patterns of language maintenance and shift among historical German-speaking North American Amish and Mennonite communities reveal ways in which these groups have utilized language to encode and mediate group identity. The Old Order Amish and the Old Order Mennonites have maintained German to resist secular authority, to remain separate from the dominant society, to preserve the traditions of their forefathers and, above all, to mark themselves as Old Order. More liberal groups have shifted to English to demonstrate a commitment to evangelism and a rejection of Old Order practice. This paper supports the view that individual communities may actively direct language change. Guided by an ideology that invests particular patterns of language use with religious significance, each Amish and Mennonite community determines its own linguistic fate.     

Local response to planning mandates. The prevalence and utilization of needs assessment by human service agencies.

Federal and state needs assessment mandates have traditionally been criticized both by their originators and by the local human service agencies that are required to conduct these studies as part of the planning process. This paper presents some preliminary evidence that local opposition to assessment may be shrinking as agencies gain a new appreciation for the varied uses of assessment information. Using data from a sample of Wisconsin agencies the prevalence of assessments between 1979 and 1980 is described and the conditions surrounding the practice of needs assessment are outlined. Particular attention is given to factors that affect the utilization of needs assessment results, including the characteristics of the sponsoring agency, the attributes of the study, and the structure of the assessment process.     

美国在台湾问题中的政策变迁与角色演化

美国介入台湾问题后,其在台海地区的政策和角色经过四个不同阶段的演变。国民党退守台湾后,杜鲁门政府开始介入台湾问题。20世纪50、60年代经过三次台海危机,美国在台海地区的角色得到巩固。70年代美国无意终结其在台海地区的均势——霸权角色。冷战后台海成为美国对华政策重要的砝码和操纵工具。进入21世纪,美国在台海地区的政策与角色面临新的转型。但不论政策和角色如何变化,美国在两岸推行均势谋求霸权的意图没有变化。     

Do worker absences affect productivity? The case of teachers

This article studies the impact of teacher absences on education. Using data spanning three academic years about 285 teachers and 8,631 predominantly economically disadvantaged students from a United States urban school district, it tests assumptions that a substantial portion of teachers' absences is discretionary and that these absences reduce productivity – students' mathematics scores. Since absent teachers are typically replaced by less qualified substitutes, instructional intensity and consistency may decline: ten days of teacher absence reduce students' achievement score by about 3.3 per cent of a standard deviation – enough to lower some students' designation in the state proficiency system and, thus, their motivation to succeed.