基于多属性局内决策的应急预案启动模型

通过对突发事件造成损失的连续性扩展和结束时间部分信息的扩展,基于多属性决策方法和集结损失函数,研究管理者面对突发事件应该何时启动应急预案的问题。在没有突发事件损失函数信息的条件下,利用局内决策理论与方法构建了决策者何时启动应急预案的启动模型,并利用竞争比说明了该方案的有效性。在此基础上,通过数值分析验证了启动方案的有效性。     

Envisioning Beijing 2020 through sketches of urban scenarios

To provide the decision-makers in Beijing, China, with an assessment of alternative development futures, we introduce scenario planning to process of drafting Beijing's 2020 Plan. The sketches of scenarios for Beijing are fruitful in several ways. First, the development of scenarios can meet the Beijing Municipal Commission of Urban Planning (BMCUP)'s needs to explore different urban development options. Second, scenario planning can accommodate uncertainty in economic and population growth caused in part by China's rapid social and economic transformation. Third, in the course of creating evaluation framework to assess scenarios, scenario planning informs decision-makers about choices regarding predicted outcomes. We demonstrate that in a city that is experiencing unforeseen growth in the era of transformations, the decision-making process can be informed by evaluating the performance of alternative development scenarios.     

浅析企业年金计划的偿付责任与企业负债率的关系

开办企业年金计划企业的会计报表屁示，这些企业的财务杠杆率相对企业的举债能力而言普遍偏低，但是，如果企业把年金计划的偿付责任作为企业长期负债合并到企业资产负债表中，则这类企业的低财务杠杆率相对于最优财务杠杆率的差距将减小。本文从企业年金缴费对应征税收入影响和会计处理的角度，分析企业年金计划对企业边际税率和企业资本结构调整的作用。     

新型农村养老保险制度的基金运作机制研究——以云南省宣威市为分析样本

人口老龄化是当今全球人口发展的趋势,这种人口年龄的结构变迁正在广泛而深入地影响着新世纪人类社会生活的各个方面。通过深入云南省新农保试点区——宣威市,走访相关部门获取第一手资料,发现《云南省新型农村社会养老保险试点实施办法(试行)》实施中存在的具体问题;结合调查问卷,了解新农保对农民的实际影响及农民对新农保的反馈信息。经过思考,对农村养老保险的基础性问题及相关研究进行了梳理,采用文献调查法、问卷调查法以及访谈调查法分析了云南省农村养老保险的现状,发现其在运作机制、基金筹集、运营及监管等方面存在问题,根据理论分析和调研数据相结合,对症下药提出了相关问题解决的建议和对策。     

IPPS Sampling Plans Excluding Adjacent Units

The concept of inclusion probability proportional to size sampling plans excluding adjacent units separated by at most a distance of m (≥ 1) units {IPPSEA plans} is introduced. IPPSEA plans ensure that the first-order inclusion probabilities of units are proportional to size measures of the units, while the second-order inclusion probabilities are zero for pairs of adjacent units separated by a distance of m units or less. IPPSEA plans have been obtained by making use of binary, proper, and unequireplicated block designs and linear programing approach. The performance of IPPSEA plans using Horvitz–Thompson estimator of population total has been compared with existing sampling plans such as simple random sampling without replacement (SRSWOR), balanced sampling plans excluding adjacent units {BSA (m) plans}, probability proportional to size with replacement, Hartley and Rao's plan (1962 Hartley , H. O. , Rao , J. N. K. ( 1962 ). Sampling with unequal probabilities and without replacement . Ann. Math. Statist. 33 : 350 – 374 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Rao et al.'s strategy (1962 Rao , J. N. K. , Hartley , H. O. , Cochran , W. G. ( 1962 ). On a simple procedure of unequal probability sampling without replacement . J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 24 : 482 – 491 . [Google Scholar]), and Sampford's IPPS plan (1967 Sampford , M. R. ( 1967 ). On sampling without replacement with unequal probabilities of selection . Biometrika 54 ( 3 ): 499 – 513 .[Crossref], [PubMed] , [Google Scholar]) using a real life population. Unbiased estimation of Horvitz–Thompson estimator of population total is not possible in these types of plans because some of the second-order inclusion probabilities are zero. To resolve this problem, one approximate variance estimation technique has been suggested.     

Optimum two stage group-screening designs

In this paper, emphasis has been given to both the expected number of runs and the expected number of incorrect decisions and two stage group-screening designs have been obtained which minimise one fixing the other or minimise some sort of cost function which connects the two. Some group-screening plans have been given at the end as illustrations.     

长期外出流动人口的养老境遇:基于停留预期与社保参与状况的分析

流动人口的社会保障问题一直以来备受社会各界的广泛关注。本文运用国家人口计生委2010年实施的106个城市流动人口监测调查数据,对停留在流入城市达10年及以上的流动人口这一最先迈入老龄阶段的群体,就其人口社会特征和停留预期与养老境遇进行重点分析。总体而言,长期外出流动人口显示有长期停留之预期,但社会保险的参与状况却令人堪忧。此外,不同人口社会特征的长期外出流动人口,其长期停留预期和社保参与状况存在一定差别。     

建筑施工现场安全事故应急预案构建

为了解决在建筑施工现场安全事故突发时,因应急救援方案不合理、应急救援不及时,造成生命财产的重大损失问题,运用实证分析法、数理统计法,分析中国建筑施工现场频发事故类型,构建施工现场安全事故应急预案模型。选取脚手架安全事故对应急预案模型做了一次应用,结果表明：该预案能够控制事故蔓延、减少安全事故所造成的损失,可操作性强,对降低生命财产损失、保障施工现场安全生产具有参考价值。     

Making the Technological Transition – Citizens' Encounters with Digital Pension Services

We examine in this article the impact of digitization on the provision of public services by studying how citizens experience the use of web portals in their pension planning. Based on focus groups and user test material, we elucidate five critical phases that each operate as an obstacle for citizens' further engagement in the digital self‐service process: interest, access, comprehension, reflection and support. We argue that these phases and the obstacles they entail illustrate a transition away from a situation in which control and agency over the quality of public services is embedded in a dyadic relationship between citizens and frontline personnel, and to a situation characterized by more complex relations between citizens, the front line, and the digital infrastructure. We argue that this transition implies that citizens are required to possess a new type of competence that contains both financial and digital skills. Citizens who are unable to develop or acquire such competence are likely to be disadvantaged by the services. Lastly, we argue that these developments pose significant challenges for public administrations to ensure the overall quality of the public services.     

城镇职工基本养老保险退保群体特征研究

本文基于深圳特区2005-2011年企业社会追踪调查数据,对养老保险退保群体特征因素进行随机效应回归,结果表明：退保群体的性别、年龄、保险意识、收入水平、户口、劳动合同属性、行业类型等有显著差异。2009年国务院颁布《城镇企业职工基本养老保险关系转移接续暂行办法》后,退保显著减少。