Optimum two stage group-screening designs

In this paper, emphasis has been given to both the expected number of runs and the expected number of incorrect decisions and two stage group-screening designs have been obtained which minimise one fixing the other or minimise some sort of cost function which connects the two. Some group-screening plans have been given at the end as illustrations.     

Feeding the pipeline: Gender,occupational plans,and college major selection

In this article, we analyze gender differences in college major selection for respondents to the Education Longitudinal Study (2002–2006), focusing on educational pathways through college that lead to science, engineering, or doctoral-track medicine occupations and to non-doctoral track clinical and health sciences occupations. We show that gender differences in college major selection remain substantial, even for a cohort in which rates of enrollment in postsecondary education are more than ten percent higher for young women than for young men. Consistent with other recent research, we demonstrate that neither gender differences in work–family goals nor in academic preparation explain a substantial portion of these differences. However, the occupational plans of high school seniors are strong predictors of initial college major selection, a finding that is revealed only when occupational plans are measured with sufficient detail, here by using the verbatim responses of students. We also find that the association between occupational plans and college major selection is not attributable to work–family orientation or academic preparation. Finally, we find gender differences in the associations between occupational plans and college major selection that are consistent with prior research on STEM attrition, as well as with the claim that attrition also affects the selection of majors that are gateways into doctoral-track medicine. We discuss the implications of the predictive power of occupational plans formed in adolescence for understanding sex segregation and for policies intended to create a gender-balanced STEM and doctoral-level medical workforce.     

美国企业年金发展动态及其启示

面对人口老龄化趋势,世界上的发达国家普遍建立了企业年金制度。美国产业界举办企业年金有100多年的历史,其典型运作模式———401(k)计划在近20年中占主要地位。研究美国企业年金制度、重点考察401(k)计划的形成、发展以及随着客观环境变化产生的矛盾运动,对于经济转轨条件下的我国企业年金建设有重要的借鉴作用。     

美国企业年金"三驾马车"监管体制的运行与协调

美国对企业年金的监管实行的是"分权式"监管体制,这是在企业年金发展过程中制度长期选择的结果.本文通过对美国企业年金监管体制运行和协调的分析,发现该体制具有四个重要特点:一是监管机构设置健全,运行机制可靠,部门之间监管责任清晰,避免了监管真空的出现.二是监管部门之间加强合作,提高监管效率,避免了监管责任的重叠.三是监管机构的地位和出发点不同,增强了对计划参与者和受益人的保护程度.四是给予劳工部可以随时干预任何对企业年金计划参与者权益方面造成重大影响的事件的特殊权力,保证了监管体制的平稳运行.     

欧洲债务危机与中国社会养老保险制度改革——基于公共养老金替代率视角的分析

经济增长缓慢、人口老龄化、社会养老保障财政收支失衡与欧债危机密切相关.欧洲国家刚性的养老金替代率在人口持续老龄化和经济增长缓慢前提下必然导致养老金财政赤字不断扩大,国家财政债务危机不断升级.较高的养老金替代率实际上反映了代际负担的不可持续性,所以合适的养老金替代率的确定无论对世界还是对中国都具有重要意义.有鉴于此,未富先老的中国应该坚持带有生产主义特征的社会养老保障模式,构筑多支柱、多来源的退休金体系,适当降低基础养老金替代率,并构建养老金负担与给付的自动调整机制,从而保障养老金财政的长期平衡和社会保障制度的可持续发展.     

长期外出流动人口的养老境遇:基于停留预期与社保参与状况的分析

流动人口的社会保障问题一直以来备受社会各界的广泛关注。本文运用国家人口计生委2010年实施的106个城市流动人口监测调查数据,对停留在流入城市达10年及以上的流动人口这一最先迈入老龄阶段的群体,就其人口社会特征和停留预期与养老境遇进行重点分析。总体而言,长期外出流动人口显示有长期停留之预期,但社会保险的参与状况却令人堪忧。此外,不同人口社会特征的长期外出流动人口,其长期停留预期和社保参与状况存在一定差别。     

Making the Technological Transition – Citizens' Encounters with Digital Pension Services

We examine in this article the impact of digitization on the provision of public services by studying how citizens experience the use of web portals in their pension planning. Based on focus groups and user test material, we elucidate five critical phases that each operate as an obstacle for citizens' further engagement in the digital self‐service process: interest, access, comprehension, reflection and support. We argue that these phases and the obstacles they entail illustrate a transition away from a situation in which control and agency over the quality of public services is embedded in a dyadic relationship between citizens and frontline personnel, and to a situation characterized by more complex relations between citizens, the front line, and the digital infrastructure. We argue that this transition implies that citizens are required to possess a new type of competence that contains both financial and digital skills. Citizens who are unable to develop or acquire such competence are likely to be disadvantaged by the services. Lastly, we argue that these developments pose significant challenges for public administrations to ensure the overall quality of the public services.     

城镇职工基本养老保险退保群体特征研究

本文基于深圳特区2005-2011年企业社会追踪调查数据,对养老保险退保群体特征因素进行随机效应回归,结果表明：退保群体的性别、年龄、保险意识、收入水平、户口、劳动合同属性、行业类型等有显著差异。2009年国务院颁布《城镇企业职工基本养老保险关系转移接续暂行办法》后,退保显著减少。     

非线性参数异质Phillips曲线模型及应用

基于分位数回归理论与非线性回归方法,提出一个包容性较强的模型：非线性参数异质Phillips曲线模型,并给出其估计、检验与条件密度预测方法。该模型不仅可用于刻画Phillips曲线的非线性与非对称等典型特征,而且还可以揭示在不同经济环境下通货膨胀的完整分布变动规律,从而能够准确掌握通货膨胀的不确定性,便于科学决策。最后,将该模型应用于中国Phillips曲线特征研究,结果显示：该模型在拟合优度、结构分析、预测能力等方面优于其他Phillips曲线模型。     

2m − p compromise plans with strongly clear specified main effects and two-factor interactions

This article studies two-level strongly clear compromise plans. We derive some necessary conditions for the existence of four classes of two-level strongly clear compromise plans which allow the estimations of some specified main effects and two-factor interactions, with the assumption that the fourth- or higher-order effects are negligible. Also, some methods for constructing 2^{m ? p} strongly clear compromise plans are introduced.