选举法修改的意义——推动中国民主政治进程

从选举对民主政治的影响、选举的平等性原则、选举对我国人民代表大会制度的影响、竞争性选举等角度来论述此次选举法修改的理论意义和实践意义,认为城乡按照相同比例选举人大代表体现了民主理论的基本精神和价值要求,有利于公民更大范围地参政议政,这无疑会推动我国民主政治的发展.     

Protests,signaling, and elections: conceptualizing opposition-movement interactions during Argentina’s anti-government protests (2012-2013)

ABSTRACT

This article explores the interface of protest movements and opposition parties, considering this remains conceptually under-specified. It does so by proposing a processual framework involving three mechanisms of party-movement interaction – signaling, frame-alignment, and coalition-building – at play in different phases of a contentious cycle unfolding under electoral conditions. Drawing on novel interview data, the article validates this proposal by tracing direct and indirect effects between protest signals, activists, and Argentine opposition parties during the year-long contentious cycle that preceded the defeat of the Kirchner government in the 2013 legislative elections. On this basis, it is argued that interactive dynamics between protest actors and political parties can significantly affect opposition politics, supporting the emergence of collaborative strategies that may have major electoral implications. The article thus makes relevant theoretical and empirical contributions, by both offering an analytical bridge between social movement and party politics literatures with potential for further elaboration, while illuminating new developments concerning the positioning of Latin American center-right parties in relation to mass protests.     

Ideal Speech and Feminist Discourse:

Abstract

This essay examines the candidate recruitment and training programs of four leading women's organizations. Author interviews with political directors, as well as an examination of the groups' literature, provide the insiders' accounts of their electoral activities and perceptions of the importance of future such endeavors by women's groups. The essay assesses the value of these electoral activities and potential for real political impact.     

Immigration: an election issue that has yet to be addressed?

ABSTRACT

Amongst other things, election year 2017 will be remembered for record levels of permanent and long-term migration. Immigration featured regularly in the media, both as a topic in its own right, as well as a factor associated with a deepening housing crisis in Auckland, increasing congestion on the roads in Auckland and in major tourist towns, and much faster population growth than had been anticipated. Yet immigration was not a prominent issue in either the election or during the first six months of the Labour-led Coalition Government. In this paper we assess the impact of policy changes introduced by the National Government in October 2016 and July 2017. Our analysis draws on several data sets, some of which have been withdrawn from public access regrettably. Declining net migration gains and concerns over exploitation of people on study and short-term work visas has delayed major changes in immigration policy through to June 2018.     

Trust,distrust, and the end of politics-as-we-knew-it: the mood of the nation prior to election 2017

ABSTRACT

New Zealand’s party-political system has, in the past, undergone significant transformations. And recent political events around the world have been marked by anti-establishment distrust, electoral disruption and the rise of populist parties. So the present article asks if this country could be on the verge of similar disruption, and whether there is a mood among the public that could precipitate a phase of populism. An online survey run in May 2017 by Stuff.co.nz and Massey University (supported by comparable opinion polls) is used to investigate this. In spite of significant levels of dissatisfaction and desire for changes, the survey did not reveal a mood for disruptive or systemic political change in the short term. Nonetheless, political fragmentation of the kind seen in proportional systems in Europe could occur in New Zealand in the long term.     

农村权力结构的民主转型:动力与阻力

自1998年中国农村普遍推行村民直选以来,广东农村的治理结构开始了民主转型.这种民主转型所释放的能量正在战胜各种保守势力的抗拒.在农村工业化和城市化中成长起来的民间经济,是乡村民主发展的社会动力,依托于民间社会经济力量的乡村民主具有不可逆转的性质.乡村民主的力量一旦登上直接选举的制度平台,就会按照自身逻辑重构农村权力结构.政府在搭建民主制度平台的过程中可以发挥主导作用,而民主的帷幕一旦拉开,主动权就会转移到表演者手中了.     

Impact and significance of the 2016 ‘Campaign to Change the Male Face of Parliament’ in Iran

Iranian women have never represented more than 5.9% of sitting parliamentarians in the Islamic Republic of Iran. This compares poorly with relevant regional and global averages. In the lead up to the 2016 parliamentary elections, the women’s movement took action to address the low representation of women in the legislature by launching the ‘Campaign to Change the Male Face of Parliament’. The Campaign did not reach its goal of achieving 50 seats for women in the 2016–2020 Parliament. It was also subject to some criticism for effectively (or apparently) legitimising what many women view as a broken form of government unable to promote and protect women’s rights in any meaningful sense. However, the Campaign was an important exercise in democracy and had significant higher-order impacts on voter behaviour and women’s capacities. Through personal communication with three Campaign activists, this profile provides an authoritative account of the Campaign experience and its impact and significance for the future of women’s empowerment in Iran.     

State-level personality and presidential vote share in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections

Recent research has examined how variation across the states in the “Big Five” personality trait taxonomy helps explain the proportion of votes the presidential candidates receive in the states, concluding that state personality traits had a direct effect on presidential vote share in the 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential elections. The current study has three goals: First, to examine the influence of personality traits on Barack Obama's vote share in the 2008 and 2012 elections; second to test whether the influence of personality traits on vote share holds under stricter controls for political factors and white racial prejudice; and, third, to test for potential meditating effects of state-level political characteristics and white racial prejudice in linking state-level personality traits with Obama's vote share. The findings indicate that two state personality traits – conscientiousness and openness – had indirect effects on Obama's 2008 and 2012 vote share through their influence on state ideology, partisanship, and white racial prejudice.     

RANDOMISATION AND THE 1975 SENATE BALLOT DRAW

“So the last shall be first, and the first last; for many be called, but few chosen.” Matthew 20:16 The “random” draw for positions on the Senate ballot papers in the 1975 election resulted in an apparently non-random ordering, to the possible advantage of one particular party. This paper assesses the statistical significance of the 1975 draw and looks at possible causes of the evident non-randomness. A simplified yet realistic mathematical model is used to describe conditions under which the so-called donkey vote can have an effect on the final outcome of the election, thereby confirming the widely-held belief that the order of parties on the Senate ballot paper is relevant. We examine other Senate elections between 1949 and 1983 for the existence of relevant non-randomness similar to the 1975 result. Finally, we report briefly on our submission to the 1983 Joint Select Committee on Electoral Reform, which led to an improvement in the randomisation procedure.     

中国基层选举中投票行为差异研究

村委会、居委会选举是基层民主的重要内容,而投票行为则是选举中最易测量的重要环节。选取2013年中国综合社会调查数据筛选出的10 904个样本进行分析,探讨不同个人背景变量的样本在基层选举中的投票行为是否存在显著差异,以期为中国基层民主建设提供决策依据。结论认为:不同宗教信仰被试者投票行为得分没有显著性差异; 有党性身份被试者投票行为得分相对较高,如工会会员、中共党员等; 年龄与投票行为得分呈正相关,健康状况和学历与投票行为得分呈负相关。