激活的断裂、合作的结果相依性与团队学习行为

从断裂激活的视角出发,以断裂理论和社会相依性理论为基础,提出了激活的断裂和合作的结果相依性影响团队学习行为和团队创新的概念模型,并利用68个有效的团队样本进行了实证检验。研究发现:激活的断裂直接对团队效率产生负向作用,团队学习行为在激活的断裂对团队创新的负向作用中起部分中介作用;合作的结果相依性对激活的断裂与团队学习行为和团队创新之间的关系具有负向调节效应。     

Outcome of Minnesota's Gambling Treatment Programs

This study measured the outcome of four state-supported outpatient gambling treatment programs in Minnesota. The programs were developed specifically for the treatment of pathological gamblers and offered multiple modalities of treatment including individual, group, education, twelve-step work, family groups, and financial counseling. The therapeutic orientation was eclectic with an emphasis on the twelve steps of Gamblers Anonymous (GA) and a treatment goal of abstinence. The sample included 348 men and 220 women treated between January 1992 and January 1995. A pretest-posttest design was utilized with multidimensional assessments obtained at intake, discharge, six-months, and twelve-months post-discharge. Variables assessed included a range of clinical and outcome variables. At six month follow-up, 28% reported that they had abstained from gambling during the six months following discharge and an additional 20% had gambled less than once per month. Almost half of the sample (48%) showed clinically significant improvement in gambling frequency at six monthfollow-up. Outcome variables of gambling frequency, SOGS scores, amount of money gambled, number of friends who gamble, psychosocial problems, and number of financial problems, all showed statistically significant improvements from pretreatment to follow-up. The treatment programs yielded outcome results similar to those reported for alcohol and drug abuse treatment programs.     

I Knew It All Along: The Sexual Grooming Behaviors of Child Molesters and the Hindsight Bias

Recent high profile cases of child sexual abuse have increased interest in the grooming behaviors of child molesters and why these offenders are not identified sooner. This study examined one possible explanation—the hindsight bias. Five hundred and twenty-six undergraduates were randomly assigned to read one of six vignettes and asked to rate the likelihood the person in the story is a child molester. Results supported the presence of the hindsight bias, with participants who were given outcome information overestimating the likelihood they would have predicted that the person was a child molester. Also, participants were able to recognize sexual grooming behaviors when the potential child molester was a relative and nonrelative. Findings indicated that sexual grooming behaviors may be more easily identified than previously proposed, but individuals greatly overestimate the likelihood they would have predicted a person was a child molester once they are given outcome information.     

小额信贷在西藏的实践评析

文章以通过长期演化而在世界范围内获得普遍认可的小额信贷典型机制和相应理论为规范,以实际调研获取的数据资料为佐证,力图规范分析和经验实证中国农业银行西藏自治区分行和西藏扶贫基金会在西藏农牧区开展小额信贷近10年所取得的成效.研究发现,在覆盖率和扶贫方面取得良好成效的同时,由于机构自身的性质和西藏农牧区经济的显著差异性,农行西藏分行和西藏扶贫基金会的小额信贷分别存在定位模糊、激励不足和拓展困难等问题.据此作者提出明确农行西藏分行的商业化定位,鼓励邮政银行西藏分行开展小额信贷以促进竞争和培育政策性小额信贷机构的政策建议.     

权威类型、决策程序对高层管理团队决策结果影响的实验研究

随着企业管理环境的复杂多变,高层管理团队中客观存在的各种类型的权威将会对决策的结果起到怎样的作用,已成为企业重大决策非常关注的科学问题.本文利用200多名MBA学生开展了权威类型、决策程序对高层管理团队决策结果影响的实验研究,结果表明有知识权威和复合权威的团队能够明显提高高层决策结果的质量,引导组织决策得到满意、认可的决策方案,同时权威采取的决策程序对于结果的一致性也会有一定的影响等,其研究结论将为高层管理团队的组成和决策效率的提高提供有益的参考.     

Recurrent time-to-event models with ordinal outcomes

A model to accommodate time-to-event ordinal outcomes was proposed by Berridge and Whitehead. Very few studies have adopted this approach, despite its appeal in incorporating several ordered categories of event outcome. More recently, there has been increased interest in utilizing recurrent events to analyze practical endpoints in the study of disease history and to help quantify the changing pattern of disease over time. For example, in studies of heart failure, the analysis of a single fatal event no longer provides sufficient clinical information to manage the disease. Similarly, the grade/frequency/severity of adverse events may be more important than simply prolonged survival in studies of toxic therapies in oncology. We propose an extension of the ordinal time-to-event model to allow for multiple/recurrent events in the case of marginal models (where all subjects are at risk for each recurrence, irrespective of whether they have experienced previous recurrences) and conditional models (subjects are at risk of a recurrence only if they have experienced a previous recurrence). These models rely on marginal and conditional estimates of the instantaneous baseline hazard and provide estimates of the probabilities of an event of each severity for each recurrence over time. We outline how confidence intervals for these probabilities can be constructed and illustrate how to fit these models and provide examples of the methods, together with an interpretation of the results.     

Analyzing Binary Outcome Data with Small Clusters: A Simulation Study

Binary outcome data with small clusters often arise in medical studies and the size of clusters might be informative of the outcome. The authors conducted a simulation study to examine the performance of a range of statistical methods. The simulation results showed that all methods performed mostly comparable in the estimation of covariate effects. However, the standard logistic regression approach that ignores the clustering encountered an undercoverage problem when the degree of clustering was nontrivial. The performance of random-effects logistic regression approach tended to be affected by low disease prevalence, relatively small cluster size, or informative cluster size.     

An Approach for Estimating Causal Effects in Randomized Trials with Noncompliance

We developed methods for estimating the causal risk difference and causal risk ratio in randomized trials with noncompliance. The developed estimator is unbiased under the assumption that biases due to noncompliance are identical between both treatment arms. The biases are defined as the difference or ratio between the expectations of potential outcomes for a group that received the test treatment and that for the control group in each randomly assigned group. Although the instrumental variable estimator yields an unbiased estimate under a sharp null hypothesis but may yield a biased estimate under a non-null hypothesis, the bias of the developed estimator does not depend on whether this hypothesis holds. Then the estimate of the causal effect from the developed estimator may have a smaller bias than that from the instrumental variable estimator when the treatment effect exists. There is not yet a standard method for coping with noncompliance, and thus it is important to evaluate estimates under different assumptions. The developed estimator can serve this purpose. Its application to a field trial for coronary heart disease is provided.     

Communication of statistcal concepts: examples in medical collaboration

While effective communication of statistical concepts is important for the enthusiastic adoption of these concepts by collaborators, statisticians are not necessarily trained in the process of communication with collaborators in other substantive fields. It is proposed that increased attention be paid to pedagogical techniques for communicating to our non-statistical colleagues what statisticians have to offer to the design and analysis aspects of a collaborative effort. One approach is to offer examples relevant to our colleagues’ fields when we explain statistical ideas. This paper provides several such examples from the field of neurology, focusing on the issue of sample selection bias and prospective study designs.