人类学视野中的礼物世界

人类学关于礼物的考察主要集中于三个方面的主题,即互惠原则、感情信仰和商品交换。以此通过对马林诺夫斯基的库拉交换、莫斯的礼物之灵、斯特劳斯的最高等级的礼物,阎云翔的中国礼物流动理论的分析,企图纵览人类学视野中礼物的研究轨迹,再现“地方性知识”的特有魅力。     

微观结构视角下人民币汇率形成机制改革探讨

传统的汇率决定理论不能对我国1994年以来的汇率水平做出很好的解释,外汇市场微观结构理论从市场微观结构角度分析汇率的决定和短期波动的原因,为分析外汇汇率的短期决定和波动提供了一个全新的视角.该理论的分析思路可以较好地解释1994年我国外汇体制改革以来人民币超稳定之原因,同时也能帮助我们探讨人民币汇率制度进一步改革的思路和对策.     

人民币汇率与经济增长

2005年7月,中国人民银行宣布调整人民币汇率形成机制,并决定人民币对美元升值2%。合理的汇率调整,有利于中国经济的持续稳定发展。在制订和调整中国的汇率政策时,应当权衡人民币汇率对中国经济增长和可持续发展的关系,使之有利于中国经济的整体利益;实现有管理的汇率体制,将为中国的宏观调控提供了一个新的重要手段。     

不确定条件下投资战略期权博弈分析

实物期权方法用于不确定条件下投资,忽略竞争者之间的相互作用,竞争导致期权价值侵蚀而使投资者投资阀值降低。期权博弈理论方法已成为金融经济学解决不确定条件下投资估价与决策的主流文献之一,它融合了两个成功的理论——实物期权理论与博弈论,该方法已被越来越多的理论工作者与实践家所采纳.本文对多寡头企业连续时间实物期权投资模型下的能力扩展与随机微分博弈行为及几个关键因素诸如不确定性、最优时机进行分析。     

Combination forecasting for directional accuracy: An application to survey interest rate forecasts

Using published interest rates forecasts issued by professional economists, two combination forecasts designed to improve the directional accuracy of interest rate forecasting are constructed. The first combination forecast takes a weighted average of the individual forecasters' predictions. The more successful the forecaster was in past forecasts at predicting the direction of change in interest rates, the greater is the weight given to his/her current forecast. The second combination forecast is simply the forecast issued by the forecaster who had the greatest success rate at predicting the direction of change in interest rates in previous forecasts. In cases where two or more forecasters tie for best historic directional accuracy track record, the arithmetic mean of these forecasters is used. The study finds that neither combination forecasting method performs better than coin-flipping at predicting the direction of change in interest rates. Nor does either method beat the simple arithmetic mean of the predictions of all the forecasters surveyed at predicting the direction of change in interest rates.     

Generalized exchange and propensity for military service: The moderating effect of prior military exposure

The propensity for military service (PMS) of young Americans is an important issue for our Armed Forces. Since the 1990s, the PMS of young Americans has steadily declined. Overtime, a declining PMS may cause military mission degradation, lowering of military recruitment standards, base closures, and reinstatement of the unpopular military draft system. This paper investigates the moderator effect of prior military service on the Generalized Exchange-PMS relationship. Generalized exchange is when indirect benefits such as preserving freedom and the American way of life accrue to the larger society because of an individual's military service. This paper uses a structural equation modelling approach to analyse the moderating effect of prior military exposure on prospective recruits regarding their PMS. Findings indicate that the group of prospective recruits with prior military exposure had higher levels of PMS than the group without such exposure, that is, the young people with prior military exposure are more likely to enlist in the military than the young Americans with no prior military exposure.     

Estimation suroptimale de la densité par projection

Superefficiency of a projection density estimator The author constructs a projection density estimator with a data‐driven truncation index. This estimator reaches the superoptimal rates 1/n in mean integrated square error and {In ln(n/n}^1/2 in uniform almost sure convergence over a given subspace which is dense in the class of all possible densities; the rate of the estimator is quasi‐optimal everywhere else. The subspace in question may be chosen a priori by the statistician.     

从佛郎国献天马事看蒙古人的尚马情结

意大利罗马教皇委派佛罗伦萨教士马黎诺里向元顺帝妥欢帖睦尔进呈教皇信件和一匹佛郎国(今法国)异马,引起元廷震动,谓之天马。顺帝在朝中举行盛会,令文人学士和画家著诗文、作画来记述这一盛事,《元史》亦有记载。蒙古族作为马背民族,对于马寄有深厚的感情。此时的域外贡马之事,引起朝中蒙古族上层对自己民族往事的回顾与追忆。他们在马身上寄托和传承着美好的理想和追求。同时,也表现出元末中国与其他国家之间接触频繁,其文化交流处在良性循环的状态之中。     

论我国外汇储备的合理规模

本文介绍了几种国外外汇储备适度规模的基本理论，在总结应用这些理论的基础上，设计了一个我国外汇储备适度规模的计算模型。根据这个模型测算，得出了目前我国外汇储备规模过大的结论。     

关于写作教学过程的思考

从不同角度看 ,写作教学过程有不同的呈现。为体现师生双方的交往互动 ,充分发挥学生作为学习主体的主动性和创造性 ,拟将写作教学过程划分为教师引导 ,学生定向 ;学生写作 ,教师帮助 ;交流评改 ,互相沟通三个阶段。整个写作教学过程是教师与学生、学生与学生交流互动的过程