The offender group reconviction scale: a statistical reconviction score for use by probation officers

The criminal courts in England and Wales may request the probation service to submit pre-sentence reports which are considered by magistrates and judges before making their sentencing decision. Pre-sentence reports must include an assessment of the risk of reoffending and the risk of harm to the public which the convicted offender presents. The offender group reconviction scale is a statistical aid to such risk assessment. We describe the scale and the statistical analysis on which it is based, and we discuss some statistical aspects of its interpretation and use.     

Rates and correlates of recurrent psychiatric crisis episodes among children and adolescents in state custody

The purpose of this study was to determine the extent of and factors associated with recurrent psychiatric crisis episodes among children and adolescents in state custody. A total of 1362 children ages 3 to 16 years who were in custody of the child welfare agency and underwent a psychiatric crisis screening and services for the first time between 2001 and 2003 were followed for the same observation period of 24 months. Logistic regression was used to determine the clinical and non-clinical factors associated with a return to psychiatric crisis screening and services. Overall, 44.6% of the sample had another psychiatric crisis episode in the following two years. Nearly two thirds of those who returned did so within 6 months of their first crisis episode. A greater likelihood of recidivism was associated with severity of psychiatric illness, being female, white, in residential care placement, and having placement instability. Recurrent psychiatric crises appear to be predictable using readily available variables, which can inform interventions designed to reduce repeat episodes.     

Planned treatment and outcomes in residential youth care: Evidence from Sweden

A recurring theme in evaluations of Swedish residential youth care is that treatment is often unplanned. Using a data set of teenagers placed in youth care in 1991 (N = 357), we show that planned treatment — in the sense of a known expected duration of treatment — is strongly positively associated with treatment outcomes. In the short term, teenagers with planned treatment are 32% less likely to experience a treatment breakdown and 25% less likely to be reassigned to other forms of residential care after completed treatment. In the long term, teenagers with planned treatment are 21% less likely to engage in criminal behavior and 40% less likely to be hospitalized for mental health problems. The results are robust to controlling for a rich set of potentially confounding factors: Even though observable pre-treatment teenager characteristics explain about one fifth of the variation in criminal behavior 5-10 years after treatment, they have almost no predictive power for whether treatment is planned or unplanned.     

Reactions of Practitioners to the Introduction of a Standard Instrument to Monitor Clinical Outcomes

ABSTRACT

This paper describes, step by step, the efforts made by the authors to introduce a clinical monitoring system into a marital and family counselling clinic in Tel Aviv, Israel. The monitoring system which was chosen for that purpose was the McMaster Clinical Rating Scale (MCRS). Systematic training helped the counsellors to become more receptive to the idea of monitoring, acknowledge its potential utility, and try it out. However, they failed to use the instrument fully and regularly, until finally the whole effort had to be abandoned. It emerged that the assumptions underlying the system fit the agency's ideology, but not the actual practice of counselling and supervision. Furthermore, the administrative and technical environment may not have been adequate to assure counsellors sufficient rewards for compliance. A vicious circle developed: The monitoring instrument was regarded by partationoner as irrevlent as long as the information it provided was not integreated into counselling and supervision.     

Seattle’s Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD): Program effects on recidivism outcomes

Drug users and dealers frequently cycle through the criminal justice system in what is sometimes referred to as a “revolving door.” Arrest, incarceration and prosecution have not deterred this recidivism. Seattle’s Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD) program was established to divert these individuals to case management and supportive services instead of jail and prosecution. A nonrandomized controlled evaluation was conducted to examine LEAD effects on criminal recidivism (i.e., arrests, criminal charges). The sample included 318 people suspected of low-level drug and prostitution activity in downtown Seattle: 203 received LEAD, and 115 experienced the system-as-usual control condition. Analyses were conducted using logistic generalized estimating equation models over both the shorter term (i.e., six months prior and subsequent to evaluation entry) and longer term (i.e., two years prior to the LEAD start date through July 2014). Compared to controls, LEAD participants had 60% lower odds of arrest during the six months subsequent to evaluation entry; and both a 58% lower odds of arrest and 39% lower odds of being charged with a felony over the longer term. These statistically significant differences in arrests and felony charges for LEAD versus control participants indicated positive effects of the LEAD program on recidivism.