不确定需求下二级供应链中的鲁棒定价问题

对由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的单一产品二级供应链,在市场潜在需求和价格敏感系数不确定的情况下,分析制造商和零售商的鲁棒定价决策。首先考虑了零售商掌握完全信息而制造商仅已知各参数区间的不对称信息情形,建立Stackelberg鲁棒博弈模型并对模型的均衡解进行探讨,进一步通过对解的分析和对比讨论了不对称信息下零售商的决策优势。然后研究了制造商和零售商都仅已知各参数区间的不完全信息情形,给出Stackelberg鲁棒博弈模型,求得其均衡解并与完全信息下的情形以及不对称信息下的情形进行比较,分别得到制造商和零售商在不完全信息下所获得的利润比在完全信息下所获得利润高的条件,并证明了制造商在不完全信息下所获得的利润比在不对称信息下获得的利润高,而零售商则刚好相反。最后给出算例分析,对所得到的解和结论做一些补充。     

关于英语口语能力测试信度的思考

测试信度是与效度同等重要的考试学理论。口试作为一种主观性考试 ,其信度评估一直制约口试的推广。本文运用美国语言学家奥勒 (JohnW .Oller;Jr)的“语用期待语法规则”理论 ,把口试作为一种交际性测试来研究 ,结合口试实践 ,分析影响口试信度的因素 ,以及提高口试信度的方式。     

基于资源观的企业IT能力理论及实证研究

本文研究目的是探讨企业IT能力的构成、测量及其提升问题.基于我国信息化实践背景,以企业资源观(Resource-based View)为理论依据,提出IT能力构成维度的概念模型,设计问卷及测量问题,并进行了数据收集以及信度、效度检验等实证研究对理论模型予以验证.最后,根据数据分析结果,为企业建立IT能力给出一系列的指导建议,从而有助于通过IT应用获取竞争优势.     

配合物〔Cr(salen)(nic)(H_2O)〕·H_2O的电子光谱

通过测定配合物[Cr(salen)(nic)(H_2O)·H_2O的电子光谱,给出了铬(Ⅲ)离子d电子跃迁的系列参数,并对配合物的配位场光谱强度进行了分析讨论.     

Some new classes of multivariate survival distribution functions

The concept of the univariate mean remaining life (m.r.l.) function is generalized to the multivariate case. The multivariate mean remaining life (m.m.r.l.) function is utilized to introduce four new classes of multivariate survival distribution functions (s.d.f.'s). Each of these classes is a new generalization of the univariate decreasing mean remaining life (DMRL) class of s.d.f.'s. The duals of these classes are introduced. Some properties, physical interpretation, and relationships among these classes are investigated. Also for each case, the class of s.d.f.'s common in a class and its dual is characterized.     

Asymptotic properties of a conditional maximum-likelihood estimator

Inference for a scalar interest parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters is considered in terms of the conditional maximum-likelihood estimator developed by Cox and Reid (1987). Parameter orthogonality is assumed throughout. The estimator is analyzed by means of stochastic asymptotic expansions in three cases: a scalar nuisance parameter, m nuisance parameters from m independent samples, and a vector nuisance parameter. In each case, the expansion for the conditional maximum-likelihood estimator is compared with that for the usual maximum-likelihood estimator. The means and variances are also compared. In each of the cases, the bias of the conditional maximum-likelihood estimator is unaffected by the nuisance parameter to first order. This is not so for the maximum-likelihood estimator. The assumption of parameter orthogonality is crucial in attaining this result. Regardless of parametrization, the difference in the two estimators is first-order and is deterministic to this order.     

A bayesian approach to a reliability problem: Theory,analysis and interesting numerics

We consider approximate Bayesian inference about the quantity R = P[Y₂> Y₁] when both the random variables Y₁, Y₂ have expectations that depend on certain explanatory variables. Our interest centers on certain characteristics of the posterior of R under Jeffreys's prior, such as its mean, variance and percentiles. Since the posterior of R is not available in closed form, several approximation procedures are introduced, and their relative performance is assessed using two real datasets.     

An evaluation of change-point estimators for a sequence of normal observations with unknown parameters

Performance of maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the change-point in normal series is evaluated considering three scenarios where process parameters are assumed to be unknown. Different shifts, sample sizes, and locations of a change-point were tested. A comparison is made with estimators based on cumulative sums and Bartlett's test. Performance analysis done with extensive simulations for normally distributed series showed that the MLEs perform better (or equal) in almost every scenario, with smaller bias and standard error. In addition, robustness of MLE to non-normality is also studied.     

水力喷射压裂孔内压力分布研究

水力喷射压裂工艺是集水力射孔和压裂一体的新型油田增产技术。在室内实验基础上， 运用流体力学计算方法， 对水力喷射压裂孔道内压力场进行计算， 得到了井下水力射流在地层孔道内的压力及速度分布， 揭示了喷嘴空间位置、 喷嘴数量、 孔道形状、 喷嘴压降和喷嘴直径对孔道压力的影响规律。结果表明：高速射流之间具有很强的独立性， 喷嘴空间位置和喷嘴数量不会影响孔道内压力； 水力射流在不同形状孔道内产生的压力相同； 孔道压力随喷嘴压降和喷嘴直径的增大而增加。     

Evaluation of Recursive Detection Methods for Turning Points in Financial Time Series

Timely identification of turning points in economic time series is important for planning control actions and achieving profitability. This paper compares sequential methods for detecting peaks and troughs in stock values and deciding the time to trade. Three semi‐parametric methods are considered: double exponential smoothing, time‐varying parameters and prediction error statistics. These methods are widely used in monitoring, forecasting and control, and their common features are recursive computation and exponential weighting of observations. The novelty of this paper is the selection of smoothing and alarm coefficients for maximisation of the gain (the difference in level between subsequent peaks and troughs) of sample data. The methods are compared on applications to leading financial series and with simulation experiments.