Quantifying Cyberinfrastructure Resilience against Multi‐Event Attacks

This article introduces a general approach for characterizing cyberinfrastructure resilience in the face of multiple malicious cyberattacks, such as when a sequence of denial‐of‐service attacks progressively target an already weakened information system. Although loss assessment frequently focuses on a single overall measure such as cost or downtime, the proposed technique considers both the timing and the amount of loss associated with each individual attack, as well as whether this loss is incurred suddenly or is “slow‐onset.” In support of this, an underlying mathematical model is developed to represent the relative impact of each attack and the corresponding length of time that its effects persist within the system, as well as to illustrate the trade‐offs between these two factors. The model is extended to represent uncertainty in its parameters and thus to support comparative analyses among various security configurations with respect to a baseline estimate of resilience. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to illustrate the model's capabilities and to support a discussion of its ability to provide for more effective decision making in the context of disaster planning and mitigation. [Submitted: March 21, 2011. Revised: July 14, 2011; November 4, 2011. Accepted: December 19, 2011.]     

多模态教育评价模式研究

传统的教育评价只重视语言的功用,忽视了其他非语言模态在教育评价中的积极作用,有其明显的局限性.本文首先对多模态和多模态研究进行了回顾,接着探讨了进行多模态教育评价的必要性,然后以系统功能语言学的理论框架为指导构建了一个进行多模态教育评价的模式,研究在教育评价过程中各种模态形式之间是如何相互协调和相互配合来发挥教育评价的最佳功能.     

Using the Assessment Framework to measure parental mood: an investigation of the reliability of the Adult Well‐Being Scale

The adoption of evidence‐based practice in social work has been widely promoted in recent years and with this, a growing emphasis on the evaluation of practice using well‐validated and reliable measurement processes. The Department of Health's ‘Framework for the Assessment of Children in Need and their Families’ in the UK includes quantitative measures that form part of a systematic assessment of the needs of children and their families that includes assessment of parenting capacity and parental emotional state. The measure selected to assess parental mood was originally known as the Irritability, Depression and Anxiety Scale, and has been renamed within the Assessment Framework as the Adult Well‐Being Scale. This instrument is designed to assess depression, anxiety, and inward and outward irritability. However, there has been relatively little contemporary evaluation of the reliability and validity of the measure, and the extent to which it measures the four constructs it is designed to assess. This research therefore conducted extensive analyses of the reliability, validity and underlying factor structure of the Adult Well‐Being Scale. The four subscales did not demonstrate sound psychometric properties. At best a total score may be used as an indicator of ‘overall psychological distress’.     

重大公共政策社会稳定风险评估中风险沟通机制的构建--基于北京市水价调整政策的案例分析

针对重大公共政策社会稳定风险评估（以下简称“稳评”）中利益相关方之间风险沟通不足的问题,引入IRGC的风险治理理念,建立重大公共政策稳评中风险沟通机制的分析框架,将风险沟通作为稳评工作的核心环节并贯穿于政策制定与实施的全过程。为了验证该分析框架的适用性,选取北京市水价调整政策为典型案例,对稳评过程中风险沟通机制的现实运作进行深入剖析和经验总结,并从注重评估工作与风险沟通的全程性、加强多元主体间的协商对话、充分发挥媒体作用等方面,就如何进一步推进和完善重大公共政策稳评机制展开探讨。     

A Comparative Study of Child Abuse Risk Assessment in the United States and Korea

The perceptions and judgments of social workers who interview the child and family are especially significant factors in child abuse assessment process. The current study describes and compares child protection workers’ assessment processes in Korea and the USA through the use of case vignettes and in‐depth interview. The responses from social workers in these two countries were compared and discussed in the areas of: risk assessment; perception of the main problems; tolerance of corporal punishment; and judgments about appropriateness of interventions. Most revealing was that Korean social workers determined abuse based on their child abuse definition and the US Army FAP social workers determined abuse based on their definition, which was affected by legal standards and cultural differences. Korean social workers are more likely to remove a child from the home, even in mild cases, but US FAP social workers would recommend child removal from the home as a last option. The social workers that participated in this survey play a vital role in the safety of children in child protective services. Both countries can benefit from sharing information to improve the child protection services delivered. Social workers' professional judgment leads to objective and consistent outcomes and are less likely to compromise child safety in the decision making process.     

中国森林火灾风险统计分析

依据信息扩散理论,从森林火灾次数、受灾范围和致灾程度的角度对1998—2011年中国森林火灾风险进行了统计分析。对森林火灾次数选取一般与较大森林火灾次数、重大森林火灾次数及各自在森林火灾总次数中所占比例三项指标,进行动态趋势和风险概率分析。对受灾范围和致灾程度选取森林火灾损失率、受害率和损受比三个指标观察其动态变化并计算风险概率。研究的主要结论有:重大森林火灾次数和其在总次数中所占比例两指标的波动幅度和频率较为一致;一般和较大森林火灾随着次数的累积,对森林的危害程度也会较大;森林火灾损失率和受害率的值都相对较高时,损受比不一定高;一年中森林火灾损失率、受害率、损受比的值在各自均值以上的概率都约为60%左右。     

Patient-specific meta-analysis for risk assessment using multivariate proportional hazards regression

We propose a method for assessing an individual patient's risk of a future clinical event using clinical trial or cohort data and Cox proportional hazards regression, combining the information from several studies using meta-analysis techniques. The method combines patient-specific estimates of the log cumulative hazard across studies, weighting by the relative precision of the estimates, using either fixed- or random-effects meta-analysis calculations. Risk assessment can be done for any future patient using a few key summary statistics determined once and for all from each study. Generalizations of the method to logistic regression and linear models are immediate. We evaluate the methods using simulation studies and illustrate their application using real data.     

Evaluating a Scale to Measure Student Competencies in Macro Social Work Practice

ABSTRACT

This article outlines the development of an evaluation tool for measuring student competency in macrolevel social work practice. Researchers followed a multistage process that incorporated the wisdom of experienced field instructors in identifying key competencies for practice, ranking performance levels in each competency, and evaluating the reliability and validity of the scale. The resulting Macro Practice-Based Evaluation tool includes six skill domains (learning and growth; behavior and relationships; leadership; critical thinking, analysis, planning, and implementation; professional communication; and values and ethics), each of which has five levels of student competence ranging from unsuitable for practice to exemplary. Evaluation in an experimental setting, by comparing student evaluations on the new tool and previous tools, demonstrated promising reliability and validity. Implications for social work education and future research in actual practice environments are discussed.     

Social Policy Excellence – Peer Review or Metrics? Analyzing the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise in Social Work and Social Policy and Administration

A metrics‐based assessment can predict reasonably well the overall outcome of the Research Assessment Exercise 2008 for social work and social policy and administration in terms of research environment, but not in terms of research outputs. It is not possible to replicate peer review of the research outputs using existing data. It is sometimes argued that citation counts provide an alternative approach that might help research assessment, but it is one fraught with difficulties. Academics did not, in fact, routinely chose to submit their most cited work. At least in this subject, metrics are more suited as handmaiden to peer review than its replacement.