论中古时期世族家风、家学之特质——以江东世族为中心的历史考察

世族是中古时期据有统治地位的社会阶层。以家风、家学为主要内容的世族文化 ,是当时各大家族延续其家世、维持其门第、提高其门望的关键性因素。世族之家风 ,即其家族之精神传统 ,其表象虽然纷繁 ,但其核心则是儒家礼法规范 ,讲求孝义 ;至于世族之家学 ,其最重儒家礼学 ,并且包容文史、杂艺等 ,以增强世族的适应性和生存能力     

"两课"教学与网络时代

信息技术的发展和普及,对高校的“两课”教学既是机遇,又是挑战。本文分析了信息网络技术的发展与普及对“两课”教学产生的影响,研究探讨了信息网络发展及普及形势下“两课”教学改革的具体措施。     

关于中国民族民间文学史编写若干思考

民族民间文学作品的断代是个难题,但通过作品角色、情节、时间标记3要素,是可以大体鉴别的。根据鉴别的总体比例和文本产生年代的清晰度,已经可以建构5种不同的民族民间文学框架。今后可以参照《中华文学通史》框架,做适当调整,最终达到汉族民间文学史和少数民族民间文学史的有机融合。     

论计算机犯罪及其法律对策

计算机犯罪是信息时代的产物 ,计算机犯罪采用“活动天窗”等方法 ,具有隐蔽性强、智能性高等特点。分析了目前我国计算机犯罪的现状与发展趋势 ,并就计算机犯罪的法律对策进行了初步探讨。     

A law of large numbers for the scaled age distribution of linear birth-and-death processes

It is shown that certain measure-valued stochastic processes describing the age distribution of particles whose development is controlled by linear critical birth-and-death processes converge in distribution to a deterministic positive bounded measure.     

老龄化背景下退休对城镇家庭金融资产选择的影响——基于模糊断点回归设计

随着老龄化程度日益加深,我国退休人口将会呈现增长趋势。本文研究退休作为一种个体工作状态的外生冲击,如何影响家庭的金融资产选择行为。利用中国家庭金融调查微观数据,采用模糊断点回归设计的非参数估计方法,本文发现退休不会造成家庭风险金融资产配置比例发生显著变化,但会引起风险资产种类构成的明显变动,现金、股票和基金在家庭金融资产中所占比重显著下降,银行存款、理财产品和借出款所占比重则显著上升。影响机制检验发现,退休对家庭金融资产选择的这种影响,可能是通过退休之后家庭的风险态度变化、金融知识变化和收入冲击造成的。本文研究表明,对退休人口进行金融知识普及和金融风险教育十分必要。     

The pension incentive to retire: empirical evidence for West Germany

In this paper, the impact of the West German pension system on the retirement decisions of elderly citizens is analyzed within the framework of a discrete-time hazard rate model deduced from a micro-economic decision rule. The model is estimated using a panel dataset of elderly West German citizens. In order to improve the precision of the estimates obtained, the data from the sample are combined with aggregate-level information on the labour force participation behaviour of the elderly. Policy simulations based on the estimates reveal that the probability of early retirement can be reduced significantly by appropriate changes in the pension system. JEL classification: C32, C41, J26 Received September 6, 1995 / Accepted: August 28, 1996     

城市中年人养老规划状况及其影响因素

随着我国城市老龄化状况的加剧,家庭养老负担越来越重,城市中年人的养老规划尤为重要,研究发现,中年人是否有养老规划是个体特征、家庭情况、养老需要等多种因素综合作用的结果。目前城市中年人有养老规划的比例较低,具有养老规划的中年人在养老方式选择上思想还比较传统,多选择家庭养老,对社区养老缺乏信任。多数人存钱但不去理财,对未来风险防范意识较差,健康意识薄弱,休闲技能少且内容传统。政府应加强中年人的养老规划宣传,增加养老规划服务,完善社区养老服务。     

二胎时代农民生育观念研究——基于安徽省C村的调查

生育意愿和意愿生育数随着时代的发展有所不同.随着“二胎政策”的落地,生育政策再次成为社会关注的焦点,通过个案访谈、问卷调查等方法,在定量与定性分析法的基础上从理想生育数、理想生育性别、生育动机等方面来探讨我国农民生育意愿的变化情况,研究表明理想子女数趋向于二孩,性别偏好开始弱化,生育观念趋于理性化发展.农民的生育动机逐渐将个人家庭幸福和社会责任相结合,生育意愿与实际具体的生育行为在某种程度上实现了从传统生育观向现代价值观的转变,从落后、保守向文明、开放化方向转变,思维方式、生活方式和工作状态、精神风貌也向现代化迈进.     

Multiple imputation of a randomly censored covariate improves logistic regression analysis

Randomly censored covariates arise frequently in epidemiologic studies. The most commonly used methods, including complete case and single imputation or substitution, suffer from inefficiency and bias. They make strong parametric assumptions or they consider limit of detection censoring only. We employ multiple imputation, in conjunction with semi-parametric modeling of the censored covariate, to overcome these shortcomings and to facilitate robust estimation. We develop a multiple imputation approach for randomly censored covariates within the framework of a logistic regression model. We use the non-parametric estimate of the covariate distribution or the semi-parametric Cox model estimate in the presence of additional covariates in the model. We evaluate this procedure in simulations, and compare its operating characteristics to those from the complete case analysis and a survival regression approach. We apply the procedures to an Alzheimer's study of the association between amyloid positivity and maternal age of onset of dementia. Multiple imputation achieves lower standard errors and higher power than the complete case approach under heavy and moderate censoring and is comparable under light censoring. The survival regression approach achieves the highest power among all procedures, but does not produce interpretable estimates of association. Multiple imputation offers a favorable alternative to complete case analysis and ad hoc substitution methods in the presence of randomly censored covariates within the framework of logistic regression.