服务型政府建设的基本途径：政府创新

服务型政府是针对中国传统的管制型政府而提出的新概念。服务型政府是民主政府、有限政府、责任政府、法治政府、绩效政府。这是服务型政府的形态，也是服务型政府的目标。实现服务型政府目标的基本途径是政府创新。政府创新不是随心所欲，也不是标新立异，更不是标语口号。政府创新是在不断积累的基础上的新发现和新创造，包括理论创新和实践创新。只有通过政府创新，才能实现服务型政府的目标，才能最终建成服务型政府。     

Resolving conflicting demands on evaluation: A test demonstration of videotex for farmers

Evaluating an innovation for federal, state, and local policymakers and program managers alike entails conflicting demands on the evaluation study. Policymakers at federal, state, and local levels are best assisted by impact evaluations, whereas state and local program managers are best assisted by process evaluations. In-house evaluators often have an advantage in conducting process evaluations; external evaluators generally have an advantage in conducting impact evaluations. A cost-effective approach may be to combine in-house process evaluation and external impact evaluation. This dual approach was found to reduce conflicting demands on the evaluation of an experimental videotex system for agricultural producers.     

Leverage and evaluation effectiveness

Weaknesses in evaluations often can be traced to structural limitations in the positions of evaluation researchers. Conventional human relations techniques often are an insufficient basis for securing strong support for evaluation research. Strategies for increasing evaluation research leverage are reviewed. Alignment of evaluation research with regulatory bodies with authority to suspend public program expenditures is advocated. Several likely obstacles in the development of the regulatory evaluation model are anticipated and addressed.     

关于山西省建设新型农业社会化服务体系的调查与思考

农业社会化服务体系是建设新农村过程中出现的又一重要事物。本文分别从政府公益性服务、企业经营性服务、合作组织互助性服务三方面对山西省农业社会化服务体系的发展现状做出评析,并从服务主体、服务内容、服务环境三方面指出山西省建设新型农业社会化服务体系面临的现实困境,在此基础上,提出了山西省进一步完善新型农业社会化服务体系的路径选择。     

学科化服务视阈下的高校图书馆IC服务模式探析

介绍了学科化服务的内涵及IC服务模式的特点和优势,分析了高校图书馆IC实现学科化服务的途径和条件,并对学科IC的具体服务内容进行了探讨,旨为高校图书馆IC服务模式提供新的思路,满足高校学科建设和教学科研的日益个性化的信息需求。     

Sequential and Simultaneous Decision Making for Optimizing Health Care Resource Flexibilities

Health care administrators commonly employ two types of resource flexibilities (demand upgrades and staffing flexibility) to efficiently coordinate two critical internal resources, nursing staff and beds, and an external resource (contract nurses) to satisfy stochastic patient demand. Under demand upgrades, when beds are unavailable for patients in a less acute unit, patients are upgraded to a more acute unit if space is available in that unit. Under staffing flexibility, nurses cross‐trained to work in more than one unit are used in addition to dedicated and contract nurses. Resource decisions (beds and staffing) can be made at a single point in time (simultaneous decision making) or at different points in time (sequential decision making). In this article, we address the following questions: for each flexibility configuration, under sequential and simultaneous decision making, what is the optimal resource level required to meet stochastic demand at minimum cost? Is one type of flexibility (e.g., demand upgrades) better than the other type of flexibility (e.g., staffing flexibility)? We use two‐stage stochastic programming to find optimal resource levels for two nonhomogeneous hospital units that face stochastic demand following a continuous, general distribution. We conduct a full‐factorial numerical experiment and find that the benefit of using staffing flexibility on average is greater than the benefit of using demand upgrades. However, the two types of flexibilities have a positive interaction effect and they complement each other. The type of flexibility and decision timing has an independent effect on system performance (capacity and staffing costs). The benefits of cross‐training can be largely realized even if beds and staffing levels have been determined prior to the establishment of a cross‐training initiative.     

Time Series Modeling of Degradation Due to Outdoor Weathering

Environmental variables have an important effect on the reliability of many products such as coatings and polymeric composites. Long-term prediction of the performance or service life of such products must take into account the probabilistic/stochastic nature of the outdoor weather. In this article, we propose a time series modeling procedure to model the time series data of daily accumulated degradation. Daily accumulated degradation is the total amount of degradation accrued within one day and can be obtained by using a degradation rate model for the product and the weather data. The fitted model of the time series can then be used to estimate the future distribution of cumulative degradation over a period of time, and to compute reliability measures such as the probability of failure. The modeling technique and estimation method are illustrated using the degradation of a solar reflector material. We also provide a method to construct approximate confidence intervals for the probability of failure.     

生产性服务资源环节错配对高技术产品出口的影响分析

本文以修正Antràs et al（2012）模型为切入点，首次构建了生产性服务资源环节错配的测度方法，进而以WIOD数据库中发展中国家为样本首次细致分析了生产性服务资源环节错配对高技术产品出口的作用机理。研究发现：首先生产性服务资源环节错配系数对发展中国家高技术产品出口的作用力呈现倒U型，生产性服务资源环节错配不利于发展中国家高技术产品的出口，这一结论在分位数回归、控制内生性、分时间段和分产业等条件下依然稳健；其次中国生产性服务资源环节错配系数在所有样本国中最高，中国生产性服务资源过于偏向上游原料环节导致了上述现象的出现，这使得中国生产性服务资源处于“偏离最优值较远的低效扭曲使用”状态；最后高等教育、企业经营环境和经济效率均对高技术产品出口具有较为显著的促进效应，而“资源诅咒”使得丰裕的资源禀赋对高技术产品出口表现出一定的负效应，空间型贸易地理优势和契约型贸易地理优势均有助于高技术产品的出口，金融危机则对高技术产品出口产生了较为显著的负向冲击。     

高技术复杂度中间品进口会加剧制造业中间品进口依赖吗?

本文在测度制造业和服务业中间品进口技术复杂度的基础上,剖析了中间品进口技术复杂度对中间品进口依赖的作用机制及其作用渠道,并进一步分析了中间品进口技术复杂度对经济量增和质增的作用机制。得到的结论主要有:一是高技术复杂度中间品进口会加剧一国的中间品进口依赖,该结论在多维度检验中均稳健成立,这一机制不仅有助于高技术中间品先发企业成为制衡全球价值链的链主,还容易导致高技术复杂度中间品后发企业成为全球价值链的被俘获者和尾随者;二是高技术复杂度中间品进口通过抑制制造业的资本积累和科研人员规模扩大来加剧高技术复杂度中间品进口国的中间品进口依赖,中国的制造业和服务业中间品进口技术复杂度远高于自身经济发展水平,这使得中国承受的中间品进口依赖压力可能远高于其他国家;三是高技术复杂度中间品进口是经济量增和质增的重要推动力量,促进经济量增和质增战略与降低中间品进口依赖战略之间存在潜在冲突,这一潜在冲突也证实了中国当前以国内大循环为主体发展战略的科学性和正确性。     

Customer Behavior in an Online Ordering Application: A Decision Scoring Model*

This research presents the development of behavioral scoring models to predict future customer purchases in an online ordering application. Internet retailing lowers many barriers for customers switching between retailers for repeat purchases; thus, retaining existing customers is a key challenge for achieving profitability. Survey data were collected from 1,089 online customers of two companies. The subjective survey data were then used to predict purchases over the ensuing 12 months based on data from the company databases. The analysis illustrates the general applicability of predictive models of future customer purchases while also demonstrating the need to develop specific models tailored for an individual company's operating and marketing environment. The models provide insight on how companies can target marketing dollars more effectively and allocate investment across multiple operational areas for maximum return. The research answers a call for rigorous research in the area of predictive marketing, an area in which many companies are excelling but where there is a scarcity of detailed knowledge regarding application of such models.