“绿色经济”视角下汽车消费税的政策效应

汽车消费税是降低汽车工业能源消耗和交通污染排放的重要手段。在汽车消费税"绿色政策"效应研究理论的基础上,通过构建虚拟变量和断点回归模型对1994-2014年中国汽车行业的相关数据进行实证分析。研究发现,在短期受"价格效应"的影响,汽车消费税抑制了汽车生产及使用环节的CO2排放量,并且促进了汽车行业的技术进步;在长期"反弹效应" "市场效应" "生产效应""替换效应"和"持续效应"的共同作用下,导致政策对CO2排放量的影响表现为负向效应。此外,政策的实施在增加小排量汽车销售量的同时降低了大排量汽车的销售量,但是对3.0~4.0升（含4.0升）以及4.0升以上排量汽车的销售量没有显著影响。鉴于此,提出完善汽车税收制度的改革建议,以期为下一步的政策制定提供参考依据。     

品牌、认证与消费者信任倾向——以有机牛奶为例

以山东省570个消费者样本为例,基于中欧比较视角,探究消费者对不同品牌或认证的有机牛奶的信任倾向,并运用结构方程模型分析了消费者信任的前因。结果表明,消费者个体特征、感知价值、有机食品知识及行业环境对消费者信任产生显著正向影响,而食品安全意识和信息交流对信任的影响较为复杂;消费者对中欧品牌或中欧认证的信任存在差异,形成前因也略有不同。提升公众消费信心,应着力于推动有机知识宣传普及、增加消费者体验以及强化行业监管,乳品企业应根据消费者中外品牌或认证信任的差异制定相应的营销策略。     

Comparing two measures of creatinine clearance: an application of errors-in-variables and bootstrap techniques

Two indices of creatinine clearance (an index of kidney function) are compared on a group of cancer patients who underwent chemotherapy with a potentially nephrotoxic drug. The standard index, measured creatinine clearance MCC, is cumbersome to use, whereas the more convenient alternative, estimated creatinine clearance ECC, has not yet been conclusively evaluated on cancer patients. We conclude that under certain clinical conditions ECC and MCC are identically calibrated for males, but not for females, and we obtain estimated true and false positive rates for assessing the use of ECC instead of MCC as a diagnostic tool. We use a model that is formally equivalent to an errors-in-variables model with (unbalanced) repeated observations and correlated measurement errors. The bootstrap is used to obtain standard errors and confidence limits.     

An Exploratory Analysis of the Value of the Skills of IT Personnel: Their Relationship to IS Infrastructure and Competitive Advantage

Determining and assessing the requisite skills of information technology (IT) personnel have become critical as the value of IT has risen in modern organizations. In addition to technical skills traditionally expected of IT personnel, softer skills like managerial, business, and interpersonal skills have been increasingly cited in previous studies as mandatory for these employees. This paper uses a typology of IT personnel skills—technology management skills, business functional skills, interpersonal skills, and technical skills—and investigates their relationships to two information systems (IS) success variables, IS infrastructure flexibility and the competitive advantage provided by IS. The study investigates these relationships using the perceptions of chief information officers (CIOs) from mostly Fortune 2000 companies. The contributions of this study are: IT personnel skills do affect IS success, technical skills are viewed as the most important skill set in affecting IS infrastructure flexibility and competitive advantage, and modularity is viewed as more valuable to competitive advantage than integration. Several explanations are offered for the lack of positive relationships between the softer IT personnel skills and the dimensions of IS success used in this study.     

投资品相对价格、技术冲击与劳动要素投入——基于RBC观点的一个实证研究

本文由实证层面详细地考察了中性的与投资技术冲击对于我国劳动就业的宏观动态影响.基于投资品相对价格的长期趋势特征,我们发现:在长期限制识别条件下,正向的投资(中性)技术冲击对于劳动就业具有明显的促进作用(负向的抑制效应).这意味着,仅考虑单一中性技术冲击的SVAR模型混淆了不同性质的技术冲击对于劳动就业的不同影响.     

Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models

In econometrics there are many occasions where knowledge of the structural relationship among dependent variables is required to answer questions of interest. This paper gives identification and estimation results for nonparametric conditional moment restrictions. We characterize identification of structural functions as completeness of certain conditional distributions, and give sufficient identification conditions for exponential families and discrete variables. We also give a consistent, nonparametric estimator of the structural function. The estimator is nonparametric two‐stage least squares based on series approximation, which overcomes an ill‐posed inverse problem by placing bounds on integrals of higher‐order derivatives.     

中国省际农业生产力成长差异及其结构性因素

近几年,由于政策推动等多方面因素作用,中国农业连续五年实现粮食大幅增产,结构性调整也正逐步推进。但多年来,要素投入而非技术进步是支撑中国农业增长的根本要素这一状况并未得以根本改变。通过测度省际间农业生产力成长水平可见,技术退步是造成近年来中国农业生产力趋于下降的根本原因。另一方面,定量考察影响农业生产力变动的结构性因素时发现,部分旨在提升农业生产力水平的政策,从实际效果来看并未能够达成政策的初衷,有必要做出适当修正。     

结构转变、制度变迁下的人口红利与经济增长

已有的对人口红利影响经济增长的实证研究未将结构和制度的重大变革纳入模型,这与东亚及我国经济增长的现实不符。本文通过在模型中纳入结构转变和制度变迁变量,用1978～2008年的数据进行误差修正分析,计算出在结构转变和制度变迁的背景下,我国人口红利及各要素对经济增长的影响。结果发现,固定资产投资对我国经济增长的影响程度最大,其次是技术进步,第三是制度变迁,结构变化的影响也很显著。人口红利的影响也较显著,但是其对经济增长解释力度较小。因此随着人口红利的逐渐消失,未来的经济增长更需要依靠投资、技术进步、结构变迁和制度变革。     

Causal Linkages in Supply Chain Management: An Exploratory Study of North American Manufacturing Firms

In this paper we investigate the key causal linkages in supply chain management. We propose a conceptual framework and test this framework on data from 215 North American manufacturing firms using structural equation modeling techniques. Three major research issues are addressed in this study: Do sourcing decisions affect the degree to which firms achieve manufacturing goals of cost, flexibility, dependability, and quality? Does the degree of manufacturing goal achievement lead to higher customer responsiveness? Does the degree of manufacturing goal achievement lead to higher internal manufacturing performance? The study examines the relationship among sourcing decisions, manufacturing goals, customer responsiveness, and manufacturing performance. The results support the notion that an integrated supply chain involves aligning sourcing decisions to achieve manufacturing goals that are set to respond favorably to the needs of customers.     

Interorganizational Determinants of Environmental Purchasing: Initial Evidence from the Consumer Products Industries*

Environmental purchasing consists of the purchasing function's involvement in activities that include reduction, recycling, reuse, and substitution of materials. Despite the potentially important role that the purchasing function can play in a firm's environmental activities, little research has been performed to date that examines the factors that impact environmental purchasing. The authors develop and empirically test a theoretical model that examines how interorganizational factors both drive and constrain purchasing's involvement in environmental activities. The empirical findings suggest that environmental purchasing activities will be facilitated through increased coordination with suppliers as well as downstream members of the supply chain, including retailers. The results also suggest the need for increased coordination within the firm, particularly between the purchasing function on the inbound side and marketing and distribution functions on the outbound side.