Comparison of Bayesian sample size criteria: ACC, ALC, and WOC

A challenge for implementing performance-based Bayesian sample size determination is selecting which of several methods to use. We compare three Bayesian sample size criteria: the average coverage criterion (ACC) which controls the coverage rate of fixed length credible intervals over the predictive distribution of the data, the average length criterion (ALC) which controls the length of credible intervals with a fixed coverage rate, and the worst outcome criterion (WOC) which ensures the desired coverage rate and interval length over all (or a subset of) possible datasets. For most models, the WOC produces the largest sample size among the three criteria, and sample sizes obtained by the ACC and the ALC are not the same. For Bayesian sample size determination for normal means and differences between normal means, we investigate, for the first time, the direction and magnitude of differences between the ACC and ALC sample sizes. For fixed hyperparameter values, we show that the difference of the ACC and ALC sample size depends on the nominal coverage, and not on the nominal interval length. There exists a threshold value of the nominal coverage level such that below the threshold the ALC sample size is larger than the ACC sample size, and above the threshold the ACC sample size is larger. Furthermore, the ACC sample size is more sensitive to changes in the nominal coverage. We also show that for fixed hyperparameter values, there exists an asymptotic constant ratio between the WOC sample size and the ALC (ACC) sample size. Simulation studies are conducted to show that similar relationships among the ACC, ALC, and WOC may hold for estimating binomial proportions. We provide a heuristic argument that the results can be generalized to a larger class of models.     

税收伦理问题初探

税收伦理是现代伦理学研究的一块尚待开垦的处女地,其研究的紧迫性、必要性和重要性生不必赘言。它既是税收治理面临税收法定主义、税收相对主义、税收技术主义现实挑战的催生,也是伦理学和税收学学科发展的必然要求。税收伦理是指征纳行为事实如何的规律以及应该如何的规范,其当代使命在于寻找和发现优良的税收治理道德规范,为税收治理奠定坚实的道德基础;其基本问题在于探求税收活动中征纳行为事实如何的客观规律,社会制定税收道德的终极目的,进而制定优良的税收治理道德原则和规范。税收伦理的道德原则和规范是：税收公正、税收平等和人道,而诚信是税收治理最重要的道德规则。     

我国利率市场化改革的道路选择与步骤安排——基于对典型发展中国家利率市场化改革实践比较的实证分析

利率是资金的价格,也是调节国民经济的重要杠杆。实行利率市场化,对深化金融体制改革,促进市场经济发展有着重要的推动作用。当前,我国经济正处于向市场经济转轨的过程中,利率市场化这一复杂的系统工程现实地摆在我们面前。文章以发展中国家的利率市场化改革为切入点,实证分析了典型发展中国家的利率市场化改革的经验,认为根据我国国情,中国的利率市场化改革应该走渐进式的改革道路,重点提出了适合我国利率市场化改革的步骤安排。     

Can strategic uncertainty help deter tax evasion? An experiment on auditing rules

This paper adds to the economic-psychological research on tax compliance by experimentally testing a simple auditing rule that induces strategic uncertainty among taxpayers. Under this rule, termed the bounded rule, taxpayers are informed of the maximum number of audits by a tax authority, so that the audit probability depends on the joint decisions among the taxpayers. We compare the bounded rule to the widely studied flat-rate rule, where taxpayers are informed that they will be audited with a constant probability. The experimental evidence shows that, as theoretically predicted, the bounded rule induces the same level of compliance as the flat-rate rule when strategic uncertainty is low, and a higher level of compliance when strategic uncertainty is high. The bounded rule also induces distinctive tax evasion dynamics compared to the flat-rate rule. The results suggest that increasing the level of strategic uncertainty among taxpayers could be an effective device to deter tax evasion.     

A measuring instrument to evaluate e-service quality in a revenue authority setting

Tax revenue forms the backbone of any economy. The quality of the e-services provided by a revenue authority is therefore crucial, as e-service quality directly influences the burden of complying with tax obligations, and hence affects the tax compliance climate in a country. The aim of the study is the development of a measuring instrument that encapsulates the ‘lens of a tax practitioner’ in an e-service revenue authority setting. In order to develop a conceptual framework, an in-depth, qualitative approach was used to identify a comprehensive range of service attributes and dimensions that potentially drive e-service quality in the revenue authority setting. This framework is then compared with other relevant service quality models to derive at a proposed e-service quality-measuring instrument. Findings from this study may advance the understanding and the management of the e-service quality of the e-services in a revenue authority setting.     

中国生育现代化问题的定量研究

本文主要对我国生育现代化进行了一些定量研究 ,构造了生育现代化综合指数 ,在历史及省际比较的基础上认为我国生育现代化自建国以来呈波浪形上升演进过程 ,省际差异大而且生育现代化内部各方面发展不平衡。     

退休年龄与养老金支付

退休年龄由各国各地人口的平均寿命以及劳动力供求状况所决定 ,它对养老金的支付有重要影响作用。在人口老龄化日益加剧、劳动力供应日益困难的当今社会 ,不少国家和地区都做出了推迟退休年龄以维持养老基金平衡的政策选择。中国城镇职工退休年龄是几十年前规定的 ,在人口平均寿命不断增长、养老保险制度日益成熟的今天 ,也存在着推迟退休年龄的社会需求和可能条件。文章通过对养老保险制度赡养率、被动率的分析 ,提出了按男女有别、分步到位的原则推迟职工退休年龄的政策建议 ,文章还就一些地区大批办理职工提前退休的做法对养老金支付造成的压力进行了分析     

ASMEC-O:一个基于主体的开放经济模型

为了分析国际贸易对一个国家宏观经济的影响 ,我们提供了一个基于主体的开放经济模型———ASMEC -O。模型由两个独立的国家组成 ,并通过外汇主体联系在一起。每个国家都由多个家庭、多个企业和一个政府组成 ,他们通过产品市场和劳动力市场相互作用。家庭依据收入和价格进行消费 ;企业依据库存量和销售量制定生产策略 ,依据利润、销售量和价格制定销售决策 ;政府通过税收和支付社会保障金来维持经济的平等。通过国际贸易 ,两国的产品可以相互流动。外汇主体可以将一国货币转换成另一国货币 ,并调整汇率的大小来反映资金的波动。政府可以通过制定关税控制进口产品的数量。在模型的运行过程中 ,家庭可以应用遗传算法进化其劳动生产率 ,企业可以应用分类器系统完善其定价策略。实验结果表明 :发展中国家通过适当地制定关税 ,经济可以达到较高的增长速度 ,平均失业率逐步下降 ,汇率趋于稳定。     

上海市税收收入与经济增长的相关分析

本文采用动态计量经济学研究方法,运用虚拟变量和广义最小二乘模型,以上海市1949--2005年的数据为样本．对上海市税收收入与经济增长相关性进行实证分析表明,上海市经济增长与税收收入增长基本协调,但是,在上海市经济高速增长的同时,也存在着税收超常增长的态势。这一方面说明税务部门征收管理工作的进步,另一方面也说明税源结构并不合理。为此,应继续加强征收工作;优化产业布局;建立高效税源管理体系。     

青岛市三大产业增长效应分析

近年来青岛经济发展十分迅速,青岛综合经济实力不断提升。根据库兹涅茨的产业结构演进理论,为了实现青岛经济的更快更好发展,第二、第三产业的发展顺序问题不得不慎重考虑。通过分析各产业对青岛经济发展的贡献率以及产业结构的偏离度,得出青岛应进一步加大第三产业发展力度的结论,最后提出政策建议。