提高排污费能促进企业创新吗?——兼论对我国环保税开征的启示

考虑到我国2018年首征的环保税是由原排污费采取“税负平移”方式改制而成,本文以国发〔2007〕15号文颁布实施后各省级政府陆续调整二氧化硫(SO2)排污费标准为准实验;以2005-2014 年深沪股市重污染行业的上市公司为研究样本;采用双重差分方法(DID)研究了SO2排污费标准提高带来的企业创新效应,并以此探讨对环保税政策的相关启示。研究发现:排污费征收标准的提高总体上抑制了企业创新,然而当环保税税额提高到一定程度,环保税征收可促进企业进行技术创新。由此对我国环保税改革的启示在于,需进一步提高我国现行环保税税率并出台相应的配套政策。本文主要创新点在于通过外生政策冲击并采用DID 模型,相对有效处理了环境规制强度与企业创新之间的内生性问题,研究结论对由原排污费改制而来的我国环保税的进一步完善具有相应的政策指导意义。     

Tax structure and state economic growth during the Great Recession

Concern about the effect of taxes on economic growth and development in the United States is longstanding. While most studies are concerned with the growth impacts of tax burden, marginal rates, or the impact of a particular tax, there are few works that examine the impact of tax structure in the way it is defined in this work. Here, tax structure is defined as the shares of revenue collected by various taxes. Using a pool of data on the 50 states between 2004 and 2010, this paper explores the relationship between state and local tax structure and growth of real per-capita GDP through the Great Recession centered in 2008. The results are used to generate estimates of the growth impacts of revenue neutral changes in tax shares.     

中国县级政府税收竞争研究

税收竞争是地方政府财政竞争的常见方式。为吸引税基,放松税收征管力度是其主要表现形式。理论模型表明地方政府不同策略行为取决于相对税率的权衡;政府间不同的资本税率弹性导致了实际税率的分化。利用空间计量方法分析了中国县级政府的税收竞争行为,发现相邻县存在显著的策略互补(税收模仿);异质性政府税率存在差异,贫穷县的实际税率要高于富裕县。纠正扭曲的税收征管策略和提升市场保护激励是未来改革关键。     

利率期货推出对现货市场的冲击效应——基于香港市场的经验证据

新兴市场利率期货的引进,对现货市场的动态波动和信息传递一定的冲击效应。本文针对香港市场90天利率期货,应用自回归条件异方差模型(GARCH)和方差比模型(VR),检验利率期货推出前后对现货市场的波动冲击与消息传递效果。实证结果显示,利率期货推出后波动性干扰所造成的影响效果有更快速地向正常水平调整的现象,波动性干扰半衰期大幅减小,但波动率显著增加。同时,利率期货引入后现货市场的收益率序列几乎接近于随机游走过程,所有的信息都立即反映在价格上,信息传递效率提高。     

The Neutrality Properties of Competing Relative Price Models: Tests Using Linear Feedback

This article uses a variant of Geweke's (1982) linear feedback measure to test common characterizations of monetary neutrality implicit in classes of relative price models. The neutrality properties are defined in terms of relative price changes' response to monetary policy shocks in a system including average price changes, an interest rate, and industrial production growth. The magnitude and patterns of monetary feedback found in U.S. relative price data provide no support for any of the structurally neutral models.     

中国当代城市电影：历史的性格决定命运

中国当代城市电影是一个历史的特定的概念,是中国当下现代城市化进程的产物。它的发展走向是与中国市场经济和城市化进程所呈现的由南而北的区域历程相一致的。当城市电影的创作由南粤而进入北京、西安等具有深厚传统文化积淀的内陆城市时,文本表现出人对现代都市的强烈的“震惊”体验,呈现出鲜明的“反城市化”创作特征。它无疑具有很大的社会认知价值,即便是在历史评判的尺度上,也是具有实质理性的。然而,随着市场经济和城市化进程的不断发展和深入,具有自己特定历史内涵的中国当代城市电影,也就日益显示出其局限和落寞而逐渐走向了边缘。     

视觉文化时代文学形式凝聚力的涣散

文化权力格局的改变以及影视改编带来的传播效应和经济效应,使印制出版与改编"触电"同时成为文学写作设定的目标。"触电"的追求将文学审美引向影视化、市场化,消解了文学创作的单纯和自律,改变了文学艺术的个性气质和文体特征,涣散了文学形式的凝聚力。     

Real and financial shocks,exchange rate regimes and the probability of a currency crisis

We analyze the relationships among shocks, exchange rate regimes, and capital controls in relation to the probability of a currency crisis. Based on the theoretical model by Nakatani (2016, 2017a), we use panel data on 34 developing countries and apply a probit estimation. We find that both productivity shocks and risk premium shocks trigger currency crises, whereas productivity shocks are important for severe currency crises. We also find that the effects of these shocks on the probability of a crisis are larger for floating exchange rate regimes and that capital controls mitigate the effects of productivity shocks in pegged regimes.     

论我国间接税对收入分配的影响

政府应该充分发挥税收在二次分配中的调节作用,缩小收入分配差距,实现社会的和谐发展。因此,在前人研究的基础上,致力于分析我国间接税的设计机理,探讨间接税对收入分配的影响,认为当前我国税制的收入分配调节功能远没有充分发挥,以流转税为主体之一的税制设计甚至恶化了初次分配状况。提出政策建议,为税制的进一步改革提供一点启示。     

Welfare Attitudes of Singaporeans – Ambiguity in Shifting Socio‐political Dynamics

This article presents findings from a survey of 440 Singaporeans on their attitudes towards welfare and welfare recipients. Attitudes were generally favourable, but sentiments towards higher taxes to help the poor were ambivalent. Controlled for demographic characteristics, ‘poverty sympathizers’ and affiliates of opposition political parties held the most liberal views, but were not more willing to pay higher taxes. Instead, poor respondents on the one hand and highly educated respondents on the other hand were more willing to pay higher taxes. Knowledge accumulation and beliefs about causes of poverty were strong predictors of attitudes. Effects of personal values and self‐interest were less evident. Couched against the backdrop of an economy that has experienced rapid transformation and one of the widest income inequality in the developed world, the article discusses the critical juncture of social response and policy choices that Singapore finds itself.