The distribution of a moment estimator for a parameter of the generalized poisson distribution

The ratio of the sample variance to the sample mean estimates a simple function of the parameter which measures the departure of the Poisson-Poisson from the Poisson distribution. Moment series to order n?²⁴ are given for related estimators. In one case, exact integral formulations are given for the first two moments, enabling a comparison to be made between their asymptotic developments and a computer-oriented extended Taylor series (COETS) algorithm. The integral approach using generating functions is sketched out for the third and fourth moments. Levin's summation algorithm is used on the divergent series and comparative simulation assessments are given.     

Sharpening Jensen's Inequality

This article proposes a new sharpened version of Jensen's inequality. The proposed new bound is simple and insightful, is broadly applicable by imposing minimum assumptions, and provides fairly accurate results in spite of its simple form. Applications to the moment generating function, power mean inequalities, and Rao-Blackwell estimation are presented. This presentation can be incorporated in any calculus-based statistical course.     

Predictive Influence of Unavailable Values of Future Explanatory Variables in a Linear Model

We consider an approach to prediction in linear model when values of the future explanatory variables are unavailable, we predict a future response y ^f at a future sample point x ^f when some components of x ^f are unavailable. We consider both the cases where x ^f are dependent and independent but normally distributed. A Taylor expansion is used to derive an approximation to the predictive density, and the influence of missing future explanatory variables (the loss or discrepancy) is assessed using the Kullback–Leibler measure of divergence. This discrepancy is compared in different scenarios including the situation where the missing variables are dropped entirely.     

Variable selection approach for zero-inflated count data via adaptive lasso

This article proposes a variable selection approach for zero-inflated count data analysis based on the adaptive lasso technique. Two models including the zero-inflated Poisson and the zero-inflated negative binomial are investigated. An efficient algorithm is used to minimize the penalized log-likelihood function in an approximate manner. Both the generalized cross-validation and Bayesian information criterion procedures are employed to determine the optimal tuning parameter, and a consistent sandwich formula of standard errors for nonzero estimates is given based on local quadratic approximation. We evaluate the performance of the proposed adaptive lasso approach through extensive simulation studies, and apply it to analyze real-life data about doctor visits.     

Nonlinear filters based on taylor series expansions ∗

The nonlinear filters based on Taylor series approximation are broadly used for computational simplicity, even though their filtering estimates are clearly biased. In this paper, first, we analyze what is approximated when we apply the expanded nonlinear functions to the standard linear recursive Kalman filter algorithm. Next, since the state variable α_t and α_t-t are approximated as a conditional normal distribution given information up to time t - 1 (i.e., I_t-1) in approximation of the Taylor series expansion, it might be appropriate to evaluate each expectation by generating normal random numbers of α_t and α_t-1 given I_t-1 and those of the error terms θ and η_t. Thus, we propose the Monte-Carlo simulation filter using normal random draws. Finally we perform two Monte-Carlo experiments, where we obtain the result that the Monte-Carlo simulation filter has a superior performance over the nonlinear filters such as the extended Kalman filter and the second-order nonlinear filter.     

“新经济人”:科学管理的本质——“新经济”下对泰罗“经济人”假设的思考

学术界普遍认为 :泰罗的科学管理是以纯粹的“古典经济人”为其人性假设。这种看法其实是对泰罗的误解。泰罗的“经济人”假设体现了物质刺激与精神刺激 ,外在刺激与内在刺激的结合 ;制度管理与文化管理 ,刚性管理与柔性管理的统一 ;硬环境与软环境 ,有形环境与无形环境的融合 ,蕴含着丰富的“社会人”、“自我实现人”的思想 ,本质上已区别于以往时代的“古典经济人”,成为“新经济人”。     

Berry-Esseen-type bounds for the kernel estimator of conditional distribution and conditional quantiles

Berry-Esseen bounds of order O(n^−1/2) have been obtained for several classes of statistics. In this paper, the rates of convergence in central limit theorem for conditional empirical functions and conditional sample quantiles based on kernel estimators are studied for both conditional and unconditional distributions.     

查尔斯·泰勒的诠释性社会科学哲学

查尔斯·泰勒认为,人类是一种自我诠释的动物,他们能够理解并且反思人类生活以及他们与其他人的关系的意义.社会实践应该按照行动者的社会意义进行阐释.他由此批评了试图按照因果解释将社会科学还原为自然科学的自然主义,它忽视了人类生活中意义与意向性等最为重要的方面.因此,他倡导一种诠释性的社会科学知识理论,这种诠释的目标在于理解,而这种诠释性理解理论通过语言哲学得到支持,语言提供一种表达理解的形式.主体的实践通过他们的语言理解所塑造.     

The early days of public relations in British Malaya: Winning the hearts and minds of the Empire

This article traces the early form of public information services during the colonial period to provide new insights into the historical development of Malaysia’s public relations. The first formal information agency created in 1910 was based in London to promote the early practices of public relations for British Malaya and its interests in Britain. British consolidation during the years of economic boom and depression, until the achievement of Malaysian Independence, was aided by the early information services. The article makes an alternative argument about the beginnings of Malaysian public relations based on colonial economic and political interest as against other previously held views