提高劳动生产率的要素比较

要发展先进生产力 ,就要选择先进生产要素。劳动者 ,科学技术 ,资本 ,技术 ,管理等生产要素对劳动生产率有不同程度的影响。在不同的历史时期 ,其作用和地位也不同。     

Identity-based planning of prices and quantities: Cambridge and neoclassical models for Brazil

The paper uses two extensions of standard “sources of growth” analysis to develop price-endogenous medium term planning models for Brazil. The model constructed on the basis of neoKeynesian (or Cambridge, England) assumptions is shown to describe Brazilian growth and distribution changes in the 1960s better than the alternative neoclassical model. In forecasting exercises for the 1970s, both models point to a trade-off between increased inflation and a higher labor share. The neoclassical variant suggests that potential balance of payments difficulties can be offset by opportune devaluation, but the Cambridge results are much less optimistic. Current events suggest that this pessimistic view may be closer to the mark.     

Spatial generalized linear mixed models in small area estimation

In survey sampling, policy decisions regarding the allocation of resources to sub‐groups of a population depend on reliable predictors of their underlying parameters. However, in some sub‐groups, called small areas due to small sample sizes relative to the population, the information needed for reliable estimation is typically not available. Consequently, data on a coarser scale are used to predict the characteristics of small areas. Mixed models are the primary tools in small area estimation (SAE) and also borrow information from alternative sources (e.g., previous surveys and administrative and census data sets). In many circumstances, small area predictors are associated with location. For instance, in the case of chronic disease or cancer, it is important for policy makers to understand spatial patterns of disease in order to determine small areas with high risk of disease and establish prevention strategies. The literature considering SAE with spatial random effects is sparse and mostly in the context of spatial linear mixed models. In this article, small area models are proposed for the class of spatial generalized linear mixed models to obtain small area predictors and corresponding second‐order unbiased mean squared prediction errors via Taylor expansion and a parametric bootstrap approach. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated through simulation studies and application of the models to a real esophageal cancer data set from Minnesota, U.S.A. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 426–437; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

在通往和解与圆满途中--从查尔斯·泰勒对黑格尔“自我意识”的诠释谈起

查尔斯·泰勒不仅对黑格尔哲学的基本合理性做出了强有力的辩护,而且更为重要的是,力图揭示黑格尔与现代社会之间的隐秘关联及其对现代社会的重要启示。“自我意识”构成黑格尔哲学体系的理论基点,泰勒对此核心概念进行重构,通过再现其经由“感性确定性”到“自我意识”的蜕变历程、自我意识之间的承认斗争以及自我意识对自由的追求三个阶段,描绘了黑格尔“自我意识”追求完满与和解的艰险路途。     

中国货币政策规则分析——基于泰勒规则和麦克勒姆规则比较的视角

在深入回顾和分析货币政策规则理论与模型的基础上,利用中国数据对泰勒规则、修正的泰勒规则、麦克勒姆规则、修正的麦克勒姆规则进行了检验。检验结果表明中国货币政策对物价的反应比较大,两种泰勒规则要比两种麦克勒姆规则更适合作为中国货币政策的操作指南。伴随着中国利率市场化改革步伐的加快,泰勒规则将能更好地刻画和描述中国的货币政策状态,为中国货币政策的制定与执行提供指南作用。     

APPROXIMATING VOLATILITIES BY ASYMMETRIC POWER GARCH FUNCTIONS

ARCH/GARCH representations of financial series usually attempt to model the serial correlation structure of squared returns. Although it is undoubtedly true that squared returns are correlated, there is increasing empirical evidence of stronger correlation in the absolute returns than in squared returns. Rather than assuming an explicit form for volatility, we adopt an approximation approach; we approximate the γth power of volatility by an asymmetric GARCH function with the power index γ chosen so that the approximation is optimum. Asymptotic normality is established for both the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (qMLE) and the least absolute deviations estimator (LADE) in our approximation setting. A consequence of our approach is a relaxation of the usual stationarity condition for GARCH models. In an application to real financial datasets, the estimated values for γ are found to be close to one, consistent with the stylized fact that the strongest autocorrelation is found in the absolute returns. A simulation study illustrates that the qMLE is inefficient for models with heavy-tailed errors, whereas the LADE is more robust.     

泰罗与法约尔管理思想的异同比较——对完善我国政府内部管理的启示

泰罗与法约尔都曾对西方的古典管理理论作出过重大的贡献。从泰罗的科学管理理论与法约尔的一般管理理论入手，分析比较了其管理思想的异同，并从科学借鉴的角度，就泰罗和法约尔的思想对我国政府内部管理创新的重要启示作了简略的概括。     

Taylor linearization sampling errors and design effects for poverty measures and other complex statistics

A systematic procedure for the derivation of linearized variables for the estimation of sampling errors of complex nonlinear statistics involved in the analysis of poverty and income inequality is developed. The linearized variable extends the use of standard variance estimation formulae, developed for linear statistics such as sample aggregates, to nonlinear statistics. The context is that of cross-sectional samples of complex design and reasonably large size, as typically used in population-based surveys. Results of application of the procedure to a wide range of poverty and inequality measures are presented. A standardized software for the purpose has been developed and can be provided to interested users on request. Procedures are provided for the estimation of the design effect and its decomposition into the contribution of unequal sample weights and of other design complexities such as clustering and stratification. The consequence of treating a complex statistic as a simple ratio in estimating its sampling error is also quantified. The second theme of the paper is to compare the linearization approach with an alternative approach based on the concept of replication, namely the Jackknife repeated replication (JRR) method. The basis and application of the JRR method is described, the exposition paralleling that of the linearization method but in somewhat less detail. Based on data from an actual national survey, estimates of standard errors and design effects from the two methods are analysed and compared. The numerical results confirm that the two alternative approaches generally give very similar results, though notable differences can exist for certain statistics. Relative advantages and limitations of the approaches are identified.