自贸协定对中国和“一带一路”沿线国家福利影响的实证研究

自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,越来越多的国家参与到“一带一路”的合作与建设中来,而自由贸易协定可以促进国家间的贸易合作,消除或减少贸易壁垒,促进国家社会居民福利。为了定量化测算自由贸易协定给中国以及其他国家带来的贸易和福利影响,采用基于李嘉图比较优势、Eaton Kortum国际贸易模型和部门间投入产出表的Caliendo Parro模型,构建了包括43国家40个部门的国际贸易模型,利用模型中的福利计算公式,计算了中国在2005～2011年期间签订的自贸协定的福利和进出口效应,模拟计算了关税为零后给中国和“一带一路”沿线国家带来的福利变化和进出口贸易效应。测算表明:关税为零后促进了“一带一路”沿线国家和欧盟国家的福利,“一带一路”沿线29国平均增加0.86%、欧盟17国增加达0.72%;促进了中国进出口的增长,如中国对韩国出口增长幅度达128.00%、中国从斯洛伐克的进口增长达140.20%。测算还表明,对于已经和中国签订并执行自贸协定的国家,关税进一步降为零后它们的福利增加和进出口影响不大,如秘鲁福利增加0.06%、智利福利增加0.03%;进出口方面,中国从新西兰的进口将增加24.00%,中国对秘鲁的出口将增加53.8%。测算结果表明:中国应该坚持多边主义和国际贸易自由化,与更多的“一带一路”沿线国家签订自贸协定,利用与“一带一路”沿线国家的自贸区应对中美贸易摩擦,并探索对现代新型自由贸易协定的规则制定和监管措施。     

劳动力成本上升、加工贸易转移与企业出口附加值率攀升

中国出口国内附加值率（DVAR）持续攀升,伴随其上升的是用工成本的明显提高和加工贸易占比的显著下降,中国DVAR的提升究竟源于已有研究所指出的,投资自由化所带来的国内中间品对国外中间品的替代,即“主动”的提升？还是成本上升引致加工贸易不断退出市场的一个客观结果,即“被动”的提升？本文基于2000--2006年的微观数据,测算了企业层面的DVAR,从加工贸易退出的角度刻画了企业DVAR的动态演进过程,并进一步考察了最低工资所代理的劳动力成本、加工贸易与企业出口DVAR之间的关系。实证研究表明：最低工资所代理的劳动力成本上升会促使中国企业DVAR的攀升,这一结果在多个维度的稳健性检验中均是高度稳健的。最低工资上升对中国企业DVAR的促进作用通过引致加工贸易退出这一机制来实现。拓展性的研究还表明,最低工资上升对高生产率企业、外资企业和资本相对密集企业DVAR的正面促进作用更强。我们的发现意味着,中国DVAR的上升至少部分是加工贸易产业转移的结果,鼓励进口,同时促进国内中间品质量提升是我国现阶段发展的重要政策方向。     

对外贸易隐含SO2测算及影响因素的结构分解分析

 本研究根据中国2002、2005、2007年非竞争型投入产出表、OECD的国外投入产出表和GTAP Version 7.0的SO2排放强度等数据,利用多国投入产出模型方法测算了中国对外贸易中隐含SO2,相关的行业结构分布以及隐含污染物在主要贸易伙伴国的贸易流向,并通过结构分解方法分析了三大因素对出口贸易隐污染物的贡献大小。研究结果表明：2002年至2007年间,我国对外贸易创造了巨大贸易顺差,同时也带来了大量隐含SO2顺差;迅速增长的贸易规模是出口贸易隐含污染物增加的主要因素,但是,环境保护和节能减排技术改进导致的SO2排放强度下降抑制出口贸易隐含SO2增加,而投入产出中间结构变化对其影响较小。     

TRAVELLING PEOPLE,TRAVELLING OBJECTS

The paper introduces the essays on consumption, shopping tourism and informal trade in socialism, by presenting the framework of the research project in which they were produced. As opposed to tourists' shopping, shopping tourism is defined as travel abroad with the explicit aim to buy goods, unavailable, difficult to find, or inordinately costly in one's home country, for personal use or reselling to compatriots. Shopping tourism became a widespread practice in the East-European socialist economies of shortage as soon as travel restrictions, at first among socialist countries and, later, to the West, had been relaxed. Following a discussion of official and popular attitudes to consumption during socialism, the author points out that shopping tourism was not a form of popular resistance to the political system but rather a set of ingenious practices of adaptation to the everyday exigencies it created.     

上海服务贸易发展的现状、问题与对策

新世纪以来,上海服务贸易发展规模大、增速快、占比高,服务贸易结构趋好,新兴服务贸易发展迅速,发展环境日趋完善,但也存在着产业基础薄弱、国际竞争力逐年恶化、多头管理和政策瓶颈、征税环节不尽合理、服务贸易统计方法有待完善等问题。上海进一步发展服务贸易,需要提高产业融合度,完善服务贸易促进体系,提升服务水平,还需要在管制、金融、税制、信用、监管等方面得到国家支持,开展综合试点。     

Gendering (Trans)National Advocacy

Whether lauded or deplored, transnational organizing among non-governmental organizations (NGOs) generally, and women's NGOs specifically, is recognized as an active player in debates about international economic policy. In this article, I turn attention toward one consequence of women's transnational NGO organizing that has been under-analyzed: the impact that transnational activism has on domestic political organizations and opportunities. The recent increase in activism on gender and policies of free trade in the USA is the product of women's transnational political organizingover the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In the case of NAFTA, theoretical insights about the ways that gendered categories undergird the economy were made visible by and through the transnational advocacy in which feminists engaged.And, this article indicates, these transnational advocacy efforts have helped to shift the domestic political terrain of women's organizing in the United States. I argue that as women's rights advocates in the United States were confronted with the realization that the nexus between gender and trade policy was important to many women's rights and feminist activists around the world, they began to question why the gendered implication of trade policy did not hold a comparable place in the US feminist arena. Thus, changes in the domestic political landscape of non-governmentalactivismmay be one of the longest lasting (and most overlooked) consequences of transnational political engagement.     

试论中国-东盟自由贸易区争端解决机制

自由贸易区的建立促使其成员方的国际贸易和投资自由化,同时,也使国际争端增多。国际争端的恰当解决,很大程度依靠于争端解决的方式,法律方式在当今社会中因为其有效而可以预期,因此逐渐成为人们喜欢采用的方法。中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)顺其潮流,制订和签署了《中国—东盟全面经济合作框架协议的争端解决机制协定》。如何解读并评价这一解决机制成了当务之急,中国和东盟各国应在实践中不断地加以改进和完善。     

现代中国工会角色冲突原因分析

分析了目前我国工会角色冲突显现的原因;阐述了导致我国工会角色冲突的理论根源及历史原因;指出对中国工会进行更为明确的角色定位是避免角色冲突的必要途径。     

The Demand for Labor: An Analysis Using Matched Employer–Employee Data from the German LIAB. Will the High Unskilled Worker Own-Wage Elasticity Please Stand Up?

This paper uses matched employee–employer LIAB data to provide panel estimates of the structure of labor demand in western Germany, 1993–2002, distinguishing between highly skilled, skilled, and unskilled labor and between the manufacturing and service sectors. Reflecting current preoccupations, our demand analysis seeks also to accommodate the impact of technology and trade in addition to wages. The bottom-line interests are to provide elasticities of the demand for unskilled (and other) labor that should assist in short-run policy design and to identify the extent of skill biases or otherwise in trade and technology.

State and Regional Variation in the Effects of Trade on Job Displacement in the US Manufacturing Sector, 1982–1999

Worker-level data from the 1984–2000 Displaced Worker Surveys are employed to examine the effects of trade on manufacturing workers’ probabilities of job displacement. Observed changes in import and export penetration rates yield increases in displacement probabilities for the North Central, Middle Atlantic and South Central regions yet lower displacement probabilities for the Plains/West and Pacific regions. Changes in import and export price indexes lead to increases in displacement probabilities for the Pacific, Southeast and Northeast regions and decreases for the South Central and Middle Atlantic regions. However, while the influences of imports and exports on job displacement vary considerably across states and regions, the estimated net effect of trade on displacement probabilities is minor, generally speaking, when compared to the combined influence of other factors.