Estimating rating transition probabilites with missing data

In this article we provide a rigorous treatment of one of the central statistical issues of credit risk management. GivenK-1 rating categories, the rating of a corporate bond over a certain horizon may either stay the same or change to one of the remainingK-2 categories; in addition, it is usually the case that the rating of some bonds is withdrawn during the time interval considered in the analysis. When estimating transition probabilities, we have thus to consider aK-th category, called withdrawal, which contains (partially) missing data. We show how maximum likelihood estimation can be performed in this setup; whereas in discrete time our solution gives rigorous support to a solution often used in applications, in continuous time the maximum likelihood estimator of the transition matrix computed by means of the EM algorithm represents a significant improvement over existing methods.     

Leaving Home Early: Passing from Girlhood to Womanhood

This paper presents a case study of a young woman’s narrative of leaving home and her transition to adulthood. The case study is part of a larger research project about young women with an experience of an early break-up from home, through running away or being thrown out. Empirical material underlying this paper consists of a qualitative study of 12 young women that have been interviewed. The aim of the study is to understand how events like running away/being thrown out of home influences their transition to adulthood. The particular narrative demonstrates how a young woman presents and accounts for such a dramatic event as running away or being thrown out from home, and how that is understood in relation to her adulthood. A further aim is to illustrate how social services efforts are reflected in her narrative.     

从“积极”到“稳健”——中国财政政策的适时转型

稳健性财政政策的科学内涵是:控制赤字、调整结构、推进改革、增收节支。当前提高稳健性财政政策的有效性,在税收方面,推进税制改革,加强税收征管;在支出方面,调整支出方向,做到有保有控;在国债方面,应逐步减少需发国债资金和数额;在财政政策的功能方面,完善公共财政体制。     

Copula-based regression models: A survey

In this review paper we collect several results about copula-based models, especially concerning regression models, by focusing on some insurance applications.     

Chinese Contract Law and the Economic Reform

China’s previous contract laws had many contradictions and failed to meet the needs of China’s developing market economy. Although some problems still need to be dealt with, the unified contract law is more advanced, systematic and plays an important role in fostering and encouraging transactions.

Women’s experiences of,and attitudes to,maternity education across the perinatal period in Victoria,Australia: A mixed-methods approach

Background

While the provision of maternity education across the perinatal period can increase the confidence and self-efficacy in childbearing women, there is still thought to be a lack of effective educational resources for parenthood. This study, conducted in Victoria, Australia, investigated women’s experiences of, and attitudes to education communicated in maternity service provision.

Becoming the mother of a child with disabilities: a systematic literature review

The transition to motherhood starts early in pregnancy and is completed when the mother feels competent in caring for the infant. Becoming the mother of a child with disabilities is demanding as their needs are complex. The aim of the review was to appraise completed qualitative and quantitative reports on the challenges of mothers of children with disabilities regarding their own transition to motherhood. A review of the literature was carried out through, first, a computerized search strategy to identify relevant studies from selected databases and, second, quality appraisal and thematic analysis of selected studies. The transition to motherhood of children with disabilities takes place in the inside world at home, the outside world external to home and the ‘going-between’ world of travelling between the two worlds. The mothers are challenged at home to integrate basic infant care with technical care of their children. In the outside world they often struggled to ensure that their children got the necessary professional care. Travelling between their homes and healthcare services posed many problems.     

中东剧变以来的东盟与海合会关系研究

中东剧变对阿拉伯世界整体格局和阿拉伯板块在国际体系中的地位产生了深刻影响。阿拉伯世界转型促使海合会正不断向阿拉伯君主共同体转型,也加快了东盟本身及其许多成员国的民主化进程。面对当前海合会从海湾次地区力量迈向中东地区性力量的战略走向,东盟在政治与经济层面加强了与海合会的协作,海合会的大国外交战略也将不断变化中的东盟纳入其重要战略目标领域。尽管如此,双边政治合作仍滞后于经贸合作,东盟—海合会自由贸易区仍是未来的首要目标。     

“二十四贤”与“汉魏革命”

十卷本《陶潜集·四八目》所载的魏文帝于汉魏禅代之际彰表"二十四贤"之事,可以认为源自确切的汉末魏晋史料,具有重要的史料价值。"二十四贤"的人选构成来自于东汉后期的"清流"士人群体,既包括了积极参与反外戚、反宦官政治活动的官僚士人,也包括了以隐居不仕表达消极反抗之意的民间处士。曹丕在代汉建魏前夕彰表如是面貌的"二十四贤",显示了曹魏王朝君臣以汉末清流的继承者自居的政治立场,也是着眼于重构王朝秩序的"汉魏革命"的组成部分。     

Social Policy and Development in Latin America: The Long View

In the new development strategy currently shaping Latin America, alternative social policy models have emerged. This article argues that far from being rival alternatives, each of these models considers the wide differences among countries. The region is emerging from a century of transformation – from a traditional agrarian economy to an urban industrial one – in which countries have taken diverse historical paths. Some have almost completed this transformation, others are taking early steps, and the vast majority are living through it. State‐led transition has followed two successive development strategies. From the 1920s up to the 1980s, state developmentalism has mostly successfully assumed the twin challenges of economic and social progress. In the last two decades of the century, Latin American states adopted the policies of the Washington Consensus, which emphasized the importance of business in the framework of globalization and benefited the affluent few. However, an unambiguous shift in direction has been taking place in Latin America since the 1997 economic crisis. This article suggests that a new developmental welfare state model seems to be in the making. How will it evolve over the wider space of an increasingly integrated Latin America?