“1·25革命”前后埃及政治转型比较

“1·25革命”后，埃及的政治转型一度为中东政治发展带来一丝曙光，但之后更剧烈的社会动荡又为民主转型带来了巨大的不确定性。事实上，在西方民主转型理论的诱导下，埃及的民主化走向误区具有必然性，西方民主转型理论注重即时性的结果，片面地将民主制度的建立及公民政治权利尤其是选举权的实现视作民主转型的终点，而忽视了民主的深刻内涵。民主某种程度上就是各种公民权利，包括基础权利、政治权利及社会权利，依次实现的漫长过程。三种权利互相支撑，构成三位一体的民主。穆巴拉克时代的民主转型缺乏基础权利和社会权利的支撑，最终导致民主的空心化。革命后的埃及尽管在民主制度建设上取得实质性进展，但公民权利的匮乏对民主的成熟构成严重制约，从选举到善治，埃及的民主转型任重而道远。     

Influence of human immunodeficiency virus infection on neurological impairment: an analysis of longitudinal binary data with informative drop-out

A study to investigate the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status on the course of neurological impairment, conducted by the HIV Center at Columbia University, followed a cohort of HIV positive and negative gay men for 5 years and assessed the presence or absence of neurological impairment every 6 months. Almost half of the subjects dropped out before the end of the study for reasons that might have been related to the missing neurological data. We propose likelihood-based methods for analysing such binary longitudinal data under informative and non-informative drop-out. A transition model is assumed for the binary response, and several models for the drop-out processes are considered which are functions of the response variable (neurological impairment). The likelihood ratio test is used to compare models with informative and non-informative drop-out mechanisms. Using simulations, we investigate the percentage bias and mean-squared error (MSE) of the parameter estimates in the transition model under various assumptions for the drop-out. We find evidence for informative drop-out in the study, and we illustrate that the bias and MSE for the parameters of the transition model are not directly related to the observed drop-out or missing data rates. The effect of HIV status on the neurological impairment is found to be statistically significant under each of the models considered for the drop-out, although the regression coefficient may be biased in certain cases. The presence and relative magnitude of the bias depend on factors such as the probability of drop-out conditional on the presence of neurological impairment and the prevalence of neurological impairment in the population under study.     

A qualitative study of innovations implemented to improve transition of care from maternity to child and family health (CFH) services in Australia

BackgroundThe transition of care (ToC) from maternity services, particularly from midwifery care to child and family health (CFH) nursing services, is a critical time in the support of women as they transition into early parenting. However significant issues in service provision exist, particularly meeting the needs of women with social and emotional health risk factors. These include insufficient resources, poor communication and information transfer, limited interface between private and public health systems and tension around role boundaries. In response some services are implementing strategies to improve the transition of care from maternity to CFH services.AimThis paper describes a range of innovations developed to improve transition of care between maternity and child and family health services and identifies the characteristics common to all innovations.MethodsData reported were collected in phase three of a mixed methods study investigating the feasibility of implementing a national approach to child and family health services in Australia (CHoRUS study). Data were collected from 33 professionals including midwives, child and family health nurses, allied health staff and managers, at seven sites across four Australian states. Data were analysed thematically, guided by Braun and Clarke's six-step process of thematic analysis.FindingsThe range of innovations implemented included those which addressed; information sharing, the efficient use of funding and resources, development of new roles to improve co-ordination of care, the co-location of services and working together. Four of the seven sites implemented innovations that specifically targeted families with additional needs. Successful implementation was dependent on the preliminary work undertaken which required professionals and/or organisations to work collaboratively.ConclusionImproving the transition of care requires co-ordination and collaboration to ensure families are adequately supported. Collaboration between professionals and services facilitated innovative practice and was core to successful change.     

Staff and youth views on autonomy and emancipation from residential care: A participatory research study

The use of participatory approaches in designing services is still relatively uncommon. In this study, we helped design a service to support the transition of youth from residential care to independent living by exploring the perspectives of staff and of youth regarding: (a) the concept and development of autonomy; and (b) key factors in developing this type of service. We gathered the data through 10 interviews with staff (n = 10) and 4 focus groups with youth (n = 21), and subjected the data to a thematic content analysis. Staff defined autonomy as self-regulation and self-care, and identified three paths to foster autonomy – a sense of normality, meaningful relationships, and planning for emancipation. The staff and youth identified the following important aspects in designing the service: achieving normality (e.g. limited number of residents), promoting youth capacity (e.g. skill-building activities), providing social support (e.g. trust and respect between residents), and assuring guidance and boundaries (e.g. supervision of youth).     

英国的“低碳转型计划”及其政策启示

作为低碳经济的先行者，近来英国正式颁布了低碳转型计划。该计划对电力部门、家庭与社区、工作场所和就业、交通系统、农业等领域的碳排放都给出了详细的应对措施，将减排目标具体量化，并在此基础上提出了明确的时间表。与此同时，计划还突出强调政府在低碳转型中的定位和作用。该计划对我国发展低碳经济具有重要启示。     

社会转型期部分民众信仰缺失问题研究

本文在分析改革开放以来部分民众信仰缺失状况及其危害的基础上,从信仰引导的缺失引发的问题,社会变革引发的问题,传统文化中消极因素引发的问题以及社会转型时期的信仰重建等四个方面,研究部分民众的信仰缺失问题,并提出了相应的对策。     

Community and social capital in Slovenia—the impact of transition

The transition from socialism to capitalism has many impacts on the everyday life of the people of Slovenia. Amongst others it has an impact on their community ties and their choices regarding participation in public life. Community can enable or diminish the basic processes, such as solidarity, equal choices and opportunities, and respect for the differences that are needed for an inclusive society. This article researches such processes through the concept of social capital and provides some responses necessary for the political and professional planning of social policy and the practice of social services.     

体制转轨时期证券市场低效率的经济学分析

就我国目前而言,由于处于新旧体制转轨时期,旧体制下的重工业优先发展战略所造成的亏损大中型国有企业难以退出市场的现状影响了政府决策者的经济行为,从而影响了证券市场的运行效率。笔者结合我国的经济现状,以证券市场有效运行为基本模式,分析我国证券市场低效率运行的原因,并提出一些较为现实的政策建议。     

中国农民工问题的思路选择

农民工是合乎中国国情、极富有中国特色的当代中国社会转型期出现的新概念，它代表着当今中国改革开放中涌现的一个庞大的新兴社会群体。农民工的存在与发展，影响党的事业和国家的稳定、现代化进程和社会经济发展。马克思主义的动力思维、辩证思维、规律思维，应成为我们研究农民工问题的逻辑起点、思维方式和思维趋向。     

A Bayesian Model for Markov Chains via Jeffrey's Prior

Abstract

This work deals with the problem of Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities associated with multistate Markov chain. The model is based on the Jeffreys' noninformative prior. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of MCMC techniques. A numerical study by simulation is done in order to compare the Bayesian estimator with the maximum likelihood estimator.