人口“乡-城”流动下城镇失业保险基金支出预测：以西安市为例

本文运用人口发展方程与回归预测方法建立了人口“乡-城”流动规模测算模型。根据社会保障精算原理构建了人口“乡-城”流动下的失业保险基金支出测算模型;在此基础上,对2009—2020年西安市失业保险基金支出额进行了预测,结果表明,西安市失业保险基金支出总量年均递增12．93％,由2．67亿元增长到10．19亿元,其中,由“乡-城”人口流动引发的失业保险基金支出额从1232．75万元增长到2．58亿元。年均递增31．85％。     

Extracting the causal component from the intergenerational correlation in unemployment

This paper examines the intergenerational correlation in unemployment in Norway and discusses and estimates two approaches for extracting the causal component: sibling differences and the use of parental unemployment occurring after the child’s outcome as control for the unobserved family heterogeneity. Confirming existing evidence, I find a substantial intergenerational correlation in unemployment. Almost half of this is due to observed family heterogeneity. The causal effect is found to be statistically insignificant by both identification strategies, but while the estimated effect is negative on the sample made for the sibling-difference approach, this finding is not replicated on a less selective sample.

Inequality, unemployment and growth: New measures for old controversies

This essay surveys some of the work of the University of Texas Inequality Project, a small research group that for the past decade has worked primarily to develop new measures of economic inequality, using a method based on the between-groups component of Theil’s T statistic. In this way, inequality statistics can be computed from many diverse and mundane sources of information, including regional tax collections, employment and earnings, census of manufacturing, and harmonized international industrial data sets. The rich data environment so constructed permits new analyses of patterns of economic change, by region, by sector, and by country, and broadly supports the idea that the movement of inequality is closely related to macroeconomic events at the national and the global level. I thank Ravi Kanbur for the invitation to submit this essay for consideration by the JOEI, and I thank the members of the UTIP team for comments on the draft.     

Does unemployment increase suicide rates? The OECD panel evidence

Previous studies of whether unemployment increases suicide rates give mixed results. None of them controlled for an interaction between unemployment and income. This paper tests the hypothesis whether the relationship between unemployment rates and suicide rates vary according to the level of real per capita GDP. We use the cross-country panel fixed effects approach to exclude cross-sectional variations but exploit time-series ones. We support that higher income is associated with higher suicide rates. In particular, the evidence shows that the implied effect of unemployment on suicide rates is positive for countries with higher income. Actually, for countries with lower-income levels, there is a negative impact of unemployment on suicides.     

广东妇女就业状况分析

本文以广东省第二期全国妇女社会调查资料为依据,首先对广东妇女就业现状进行分析,以此为基础,探讨广东妇女就业过程中存在的一些具体问题,最后就解决妇女就业难的问题提出了自身的见解。     

失业空间特征分析

本文利用2000年的第五次人口普查长表资料对我国的失业问题做简要分析,并对我国失业人口的空间分布特征作简要的阐述,结合区域的产业及就业结构特征分析区域的失业问题。     

Patterns and correlates of involuntary unemployment and underemployment in single-mother families

Economic downturns, trends in the increased number of single-mother families and women entering the workforce, recent welfare reforms that make receipt of cash benefits contingent on employment, and changes in the economic environment that have increased employment problems, all highlight the importance of examining unemployment and underemployment particularly among single-mother families. The current study used the 2004 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine patterns and correlates of unemployment and underemployment among single-mother families. The results indicate fairly substantial employment problems. Although approximately one-half (55.6%) of the single mothers had adequate employment, 30% experienced unemployment or involuntary job gaps, and approximately 15% experienced underemployment. Results further indicate that age, education level, past work experience, and homeownership are related to a reduced risk of employment problems. On the other hand, work disability, other family income, receipt of cash benefits, and state unemployment rates place single mothers at an increased risk of unemployment and underemployment. The findings suggest social policy implications and targeted assistance for those at-risk single mothers trying to secure adequate employment.     

Effects of unemployment and underemployment on material hardship in single-mother families

Using data from the 2004 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), this study examined relationships between employment problems and four types of material hardship among single-mother families. Although a bill-paying hardship was the most common hardship reported by the mothers (41%), 38% of the families experienced a health hardship, 33% suffered a food hardship, and 25% had a housing hardship. The multivariate results indicate that compared with families whose mothers were adequately employed, families whose mothers were unemployed/had involuntary job gaps and were underemployed had heightened risks of experiencing bill-paying, health, and housing hardships. Only unemployment/involuntary job gaps was related to having a food hardship. A number of other factors associated with experiencing material hardship also were identified. Finally, implications for social work practice and social policy are discussed.     

Can unemployment forecasts based on Google Trends help government design better policies? An investigation based on Spain and Portugal

The Covid-19 pandemic has increased the unemployment issue and accelerated the digital transformation. Real-time data specific to ongoing revolution in applied economic analysis are increasingly demanded to anticipate changes in unemployment to improve decision-making. The aim of this paper is to test whether unemployment rate forecasts based on Google Trends data improve the predictions based only on macroeconomic indicators published with a longer time lag. The research has been carried out at the national level for Spain and Portugal, and the main novelty is the analysis of unemployment rate forecasts at the regional level for Spain using dynamic panel data models to implement the best policies to reduce unemployment. The keywords unemployment and job offers have been used in each language. The results obtained demonstrate the capacity of Google Trends data associated with unemployment to improve the predictions of unemployment rates in Spanish regions. Moreover, predictions based on Google Trends data at national level in Spain and Portugal are significantly more accurate than those based on autoregressive models for both countries.     

Ethnic differences in the labour market: a comparison of the samples of anonymized records and Labour Force Survey

The public use sample from the 1991 UK census makes it possible to conduct individual level analyses of ethnic minorities' educational and occupational attainments. Unfortunately, however, the census asked only about higher level qualifications obtained after reaching 18 years of age. A comparison with the Labour Force Surveys (LFSs) shows that the census gives in some respects a misleading impression of qualifications among the first-generation members of ethnic minorities: the LFS data show that ethnic minorities tend to be more polarized in their qualifications than the British-born whites, with relatively large proportions at the two extremes, either with degrees or with no qualifications at all. It follows that the census's treatment of qualifications may tend to exaggerate the scale of disadvantage of ethnic minorities in the labour market, and particularly in access to the salariat where qualifications play a particularly large role in recruitment. Regression analyses of sample of anonymized records and LFS data confirm these expectations although they indicate that the results of the census are not seriously misleading as regards the pattern of ethnic disadvantages in the competition to avoid unemployment. The LFS data also confirm earlier findings that the ethnic penalties are in general of similar magnitude among the second generation to those among the first generation, despite the substantial equalization of educational experience that has taken place. There is some evidence that disadvantages in access to the salariat may have been reduced, but this is counterbalanced by the evidence that disadvantages in the avoidance of unemployment may have deteriorated.