明代西南总督与民族社会冲突调控

明代总督之制,始于西南。本文在对明代30余任西南总督的统计基础上,探讨了总督置罢、事权授予、辖区大小、任期长短与西南民族地区社会冲突之间的内在联系。文章提出,西南总督之暂设,以及西南民族社会冲突主要依托西南数省之力调控,皆反映了明中央王朝重北轻南的边疆战略思想。西南总督之设,虽有维护边疆民族地区统一和稳定之意义,但大军征讨所带来的破坏与影响至为沉重,是为史鉴。     

Engineering confederalism for Iraq

This article examines Iraqi political developments in the last few years. It argues that unless a constitutional mechanism for proper dispersal of political powers across Iraq's regions and branches of its government is developed quickly, it may become too late for defeating Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, stemming the sectarian and ethnic conflicts, overcoming its perpetual crises of governance or for keeping Iraq united. We suggest that a confederal structure is a better and lasting political solution for Iraq than federal or other structural configurations. We also argue that power-sharing and consensus must be intertwined directly into the constitutional fabric of the political structure.     

Addressing potential prior‐data conflict when using informative priors in proof‐of‐concept studies

Bayesian methods are increasingly used in proof‐of‐concept studies. An important benefit of these methods is the potential to use informative priors, thereby reducing sample size. This is particularly relevant for treatment arms where there is a substantial amount of historical information such as placebo and active comparators. One issue with using an informative prior is the possibility of a mismatch between the informative prior and the observed data, referred to as prior‐data conflict. We focus on two methods for dealing with this: a testing approach and a mixture prior approach. The testing approach assesses prior‐data conflict by comparing the observed data to the prior predictive distribution and resorting to a non‐informative prior if prior‐data conflict is declared. The mixture prior approach uses a prior with a precise and diffuse component. We assess these approaches for the normal case via simulation and show they have some attractive features as compared with the standard one‐component informative prior. For example, when the discrepancy between the prior and the data is sufficiently marked, and intuitively, one feels less certain about the results, both the testing and mixture approaches typically yield wider posterior‐credible intervals than when there is no discrepancy. In contrast, when there is no discrepancy, the results of these approaches are typically similar to the standard approach. Whilst for any specific study, the operating characteristics of any selected approach should be assessed and agreed at the design stage; we believe these two approaches are each worthy of consideration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

亲亲相隐制度的解读与重构——以和谐社会为背景的思考

我国的亲亲相隐制度源于儒家思想,其合理性基础是人性的根本需求.当行为人面临道德义务和法律义务冲突时,法律是不能强人所难的.顺应当下构建和谐社会之需要,解读亲亲相隐制度的合理价值蕴涵,并借鉴国外刑事法的相关规定,重构亲亲相隐制度具有重大现实意义.     

环境匮乏、社会适应性和紧急冲突:霍马-迪克逊环境安全研究述评

环境安全是当代可持续发展的重要议题。在建构环境匮乏、社会适应性和紧急冲突的因果联系过程中,霍马—迪克逊(Homer-D ixon)探讨了环境安全的本体论与方法论问题,对发展中国家的环境安全问题进行了经验研究,并且建立了较为完整的环境安全理论体系。他的研究有一些启发意义,当然也存在一些不足。     

Studying children in armed conflict: data production,social indicators and analysis

The authors seek to give an overview of ways in which social indicators relevant to research on children affected by armed conflict can be developed, and how such research can be carried out. Technical and methodological challenges involved in this pursuit are discussed. It is argued that data production must consider issues of definition and delineation of the phenomenon of war-affected children more actively than it does currently. An analytical approach is proposed, in which children’s characteristics in different situations, or in different stages of conflict, may be used as intakes to understanding how the social processes pertaining to life histories of children in armed conflict are created and reproduced.

The Complexity of Families Involved in High-Conflict Disputes: A Postseparation Ecological Transactional Framework

The use of the term ‘high conflict’ to describe a wide range of family dynamics after separation and divorce has increased significantly over the years. At the moment, no consensus on the definition of high conflict exists. Lack of definitional clarity hinders the ability for legal and mental health professionals to assess, identify, and effectively intervene with this population. Based on a rapid evidence assessment of 65 empirically based social science studies relevant to high conflict, this article positions high-conflict separation and divorce using an ecological transactional model to better understand risk factors and indicators associated with these families. Authors propose a more comprehensive definition that captures the complexity and interactions of various risk factors and indicators on multiple levels. Positioning high-conflict families using an ecological model identifies several points of intervention professionals can use and the fundamental need for collaboration among stakeholders for effective intervention.     

Shared Parenting After Parental Separation: The Views of 12 Experts

ABSTRACT

This article summarizes panel discussions that took place at an international conference on shared parenting (SP) held in May 2017. The panelists were internationally recognized experts on the legal and psychological implications of custody arrangements and parenting plans. Seven broad themes dominated the discussions: whether or not there was persuasive evidence that SP provides real benefits to children whose parents separate; what specific factors make SP beneficial; what symbolic value SP might have; whether there should be a legal presumption in favor of SP, and if so, what factors should make for exceptions; whether high parental conflict, parents’ failure to agree on the parenting plan, or dynamics of parental alienation should preclude SP; and what should happen when a parent wants to relocate away from the other parent.     

Risk Regulation in High-Conflict Parenting

That “there is no gathering of roses without risking the thorns” might be the simplest way to think of the paradox of relationship. Risk regulation as psychological mechanism minimizes rejection (thorns) and maximizes assurance (roses). In the article, the social psychology of risk regulation is set in the context of divorce and high-conflict parenting. Risk regulation provides not only guidance for treatment, but also a conceptual framework for professional opinion in forensic evaluation and legal consideration.     

In search of family-friendly careers? Professional strategies,work conditions and gender differences in work–family conflict

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether women in a dual-earner context acquire family-friendly jobs as a strategy to keep work–family conflict down. The analysis is based on a survey of newly graduated highly educated men and women in five occupations in Sweden (n?≈?2400). The sample was stratified by occupation and gender to minimize the influence of factors other than gender. The results show that women are more family-oriented, but also more career-oriented than men in their professional strategies. In their jobs, women have less control over work and schedules than men but a similar level of work demands. However, women face lower requirements for employer flexibility (e.g. frequent over time) and this is related to their professional strategies. Finally, women report a higher level of work–family conflict than men in the same occupation, but this gender difference becomes non-significant when accounting for women’s lower level of control. In sum, women in this sample clearly aim for both family and career and do not acquire family-friendly jobs, but aim to avoid ‘family-unfriendly’ requirements for constant availability. To some extent, this enables them to limit their work–family conflict but due to their lower control over work, women still experience more conflict than men in the same occupation.