A robust regression model for a first-order autoregressive time series with unequal spacing: application to water monitoring

Summary.  Time series arise often in environmental monitoring settings, which typically involve measuring processes repeatedly over time. In many such applications, observations are irregularly spaced and, additionally, are not distributed normally. An example is water monitoring data collected in Boston Harbor by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority. We describe a simple robust approach for estimating regression parameters and a first-order autocorrelation parameter in a time series where the observations are irregularly spaced. Estimates are obtained from an estimating equation that is constructed as a linear combination of estimated innovation errors, suitably made robust by symmetric and possibly bounded functions. Under an assumption of data missing completely at random and mild regularity conditions, the proposed estimating equation yields consistent and asymptotically normal estimates. Simulations suggest that our estimator performs well in moderate sample sizes. We demonstrate our method on Secchi depth data collected from Boston Harbor.     

Lognormal Distributions for Total Water Intake and Tap Water Intake by Pregnant and Lactating Women in the United States

Using probability plots and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), we fit lognormal distributions to data compiled by Ershow et al. for daily intake of total water and tap water by three groups of women (controls, pregnant, and lactating; all between 15–49 years of age) in the United States. We also develop bivariate lognormal distributions for the joint distribution of water ingestion and body weight for these three groups. Overall, we recommend the marginal distributions for water intake as fit by MLE for use in human health risk assessments.     

浅谈《水浒传》中的乡村意象

通过对《水浒传》中乡村意象的文本解读,具体分析了“村景”、“村酒店”和“村庙”等意象,从诗化的语言中探究所蕴涵的俗文学里文人化因素和其创作倾向,从模式化的内容中发现民俗文化的痕迹。乡村是《水浒传》人物活动的重要场所,是与城市相对应的另一重要环境,解读其中的内涵,对我们进一步理解《水浒传》不无裨益。     

A critical analysis of Australian policies and guidelines for water immersion during labour and birth

Background

Accessibility of water immersion for labour and/or birth is often dependent on the care provider and also the policies/guidelines that underpin practice. With little high quality research about the safety and practicality of water immersion, particularly for birth, policies/guidelines informing the practice may lack the evidence necessary to ensure practitioner confidence surrounding the option thereby limiting accessibility and women’s autonomy.

Examining the variation in local water sustainability practices

As sustainable development is becoming more important to ensure the economic success and social well-being of any government, without regard to its level, the efficient use and protection of natural resources has increased in importance. And local governments are at the forefront of developing sustainability policy in many ways. This study investigates the factors that influence the variation in local sustainability practices in one critical area, water conservation. The variation in adoption of water sustainability programs in municipalities across the U.S. is hypothesized to rely on three key factors: environmental condition, form of government, and fiscal condition. Our findings from an ordered logistic regression model indicate that municipalities with high drought level, high environmental policy priorities, and high community wealth are likely to adopt more water conservation programs.     

百年诉讼:村落水利资源的竞争与权力——对家藏村落文书的历史人类学研究之一

历史人类学在注重文献、碑记资料的同时,特别强调田野调查,以增加学术的"现场感",把注意力转向传统历史学的"宏大叙事"所遗漏和忽视的基层社会与地方社会,尤其关注那些被认为是"没有历史的人民"和无文字社会的历史研究.本文对自己在田野中发现的循化县清水乡两个村落之间水利纠纷事件进行探讨,借以解释地方社会的组织结构、权力结构和国家权力之间的关系.     

乡村领袖与湫神娘娘的亲密关系 ———关于地方信仰对联村组织建构作用的研究

一个颇具创意的民间仪式使乡土领袖与湫神娘娘保持着一种眷属般的亲密关系,但污染禁忌和洁净仪式又使这种关系处于亲密与敬畏之间,两者的平衡既提升了女神的权威又强化了乡土领袖的社会地位。在祭献女神仪式中,两位联村领袖代表他们的村落联合体交换羊头、相互叩拜之举,实际上完成了从信仰一体化到组织一体化的过程。研究表明地方信仰仪式是传统乡土组织的孵化器。     

北仑区水资源现状及面临问题的对策

水是人类赖以生存的三大资源之一，也是工农业生产、乃至整个国民经济发展的一个重要的制约因素。因此，牢固树立水利基础产业观念，了解和认识水资源现状及其面临的问题，并研究、探讨解决途径，确保北仑改革开放和国民经济建设顺利进行。     

论清代水利立法思想

清代水利立法继承了历代水利立法的成就,又有所创新,体现了以下特点:重视水利及水利立法工作;水利立法体现了对大江大河综合治理的要求;在水利管理机构设置和职责分工上,既明确职责范围,又互相监督、互相制约;水利立法体现了德治与法治相结合的精神;水利立法专制主义思想浓厚。     

清传奇水浒剧《偷甲记》价值观念述略

敷衍小说《水浒传》故事的《偷甲记》是清初重要的传奇水浒剧。与《水浒传》相比,该剧虽然在思想观念上依然是褒扬忠义,但在某些细节上表现得更加复杂和深刻。《偷甲记》中梁山人物在价值观念上具有助行忠义、热衷政治和建功立业的共同特征,但几类人物之间仍存在微妙的差异。该剧明确提出了奸臣作乱于内是梁山聚义的重要原因,梁山人物对"盗贼"身份亦有了全新的认识。《偷甲记》继承了明代水浒戏士大夫化的价值取向,忠孝节义和功名事业依然是梁山人物的核心价值观。