我国基本养老金隐性债务变化趋势分析——基于改进精算测算模型的实证研究

隐性债务问题是养老保险制度改革过程中需要面对的重要问题。本文在前人精算测算模型基础上,指出其在数据选取、参数设定、最新制度应用等方面的不足,从三个方面扩展了精算测算研究:结合最新法规对测算模型进行完善,考虑了未来工资增长率与历史工资增长率的区别,修改了养老金调整系数;在测算模型中考虑了过渡性养老金与基础性养老金领取特点的区别;利用最新、最合理的数据进行实证分析。通过研究本文发现,保持合理的工资增长率水平与利率水平可以保证隐性负债规模实际可控,确保隐性负债占财政收入和GDP比例在安全线以内。为此,本文建议:维持温和的工资增长,保证隐性债务不过高的同时兼顾社会福利的提高;尽量提高社会养老金运作的投资收益率,但同时应当权衡提高收益率的成本与其降低的隐性债务之间的利弊。     

Implicit debt in public‐sector pension plans: An international comparison

Most countries have separate pension plans for public‐sector employees. The future fiscal burden of these plans can be substantial as the government usually is the largest employer, pension promises in the public sector tend to be relatively generous, and future payments have to be paid out directly from government revenues (pay‐as‐you‐go) or by funded plans (pension funds) which tend to be underfunded. The valuation and disclosure of these promises in some countries lacks transparency, which may hide potentially huge fiscal liabilities to be passed on to future generations of workers. In order to arrive at a fair comparison between countries regarding the fiscal burden of their public‐sector pension plans, this article recommends that unfunded pension liabilities should be measured and reported according to a standard approach for reasons of fiscal transparency and better policy‐making. From a sample of Member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, the size of the net unfunded liabilities as of the end of 2008 is estimated in fair value terms. This fiscal burden can also be interpreted as the implicit pension debt in fair value terms.     

信息披露时间不确定与风险债务评估

本文研究当公司信息披露时间不确定、而信息披露时投资者能完全真实地了解公司价值的情形下风险债务的评估问题,假设关于公司真实价值的信息流服从泊松过程,得到了公司债务安全条款的阈值和公司债务价值评估的表达式。分析表明,当信息流到达率增大时,债务安全条款的阈值降低的同时导致债务价值的损失,但若公司价值增大,债务价值的损失将逐渐减小。     

实物期权理论在矿产资源开发领域中的发展研究

针对实物期权理论在矿产资源开发领域中的应用,梳理基本模型的发展过程,着重分析近期对基本模型的扩展和优化,根据扩展角度的不同对这些研究进行分类评述,并总结现有模型中的不足以及未来的发展方向。     

Evaluating patents using damage awards of infringement lawsuits: A case study

As the era of knowledge economics rose, the patent became one kind of knowledge outcome. This study aimed at the basis of the patent law and proposed an integrated evaluator for patent management. The damage award of a patent infringement lawsuit was deemed to be the legal value of the patent. 65 effective samples were extracted from 4289 patent infringement lawsuits retrieved from the U.S. district courts. 17 indicators were summarized to quantitatively describe the dimensions of the patents. Back-Propagation Neural Network was applied to build the patent valuation model, wherein the 17 indicators were the inputs and the damage award was the output. The patent valuation model was validated to be feasible by error analysis. The integrated evaluator for patents was then established by transforming the output of the patent valuation model via the Z-score. The proposed integrated evaluator accommodated to the patent management effectively.     

分数型几何亚式-再装股票期权的保险精算定价公式及其仿真

文章讨论了再装股票期权在再装日按B-S定价模型执行所产生的经理激励缺陷,提出了将有效期内股价的几何平均值作为再装期权结算价格的思想,建立了几何亚式-再装股票期权的定价模型。并利用保险精算方法,从评估实际损失和相应概率分布的角度,研究了几何亚式-再装股票期权的价值构成,获得了基于分数布朗运动下几何亚式-再装股票期权的保险精算定价公式。还通过数值模拟分析比较了传统再装期权与几何亚式-再装股票期权在经理激励中的作用。     

Willingness to Pay for Rehabilitation Versus Punishment to Reduce Adult and Juvenile Crime

Punitive penal policies are often justified on the assumption that members of the public demand punitive responses to crime. The current study employed a contingent valuation survey design to assess the extent to which this is true in the state of New South Wales, Australia. The survey investigated public willingness to pursue crime control policies that rehabilitate offenders versus those that punish. Using a quota‐based telephone survey, 1885 taxpaying residents in the state of New South Wales, Australia, were asked how much additional tax they would be willing to pay to produce a 10 per cent reduction in serious crime. A 2times2 randomised factorial design was employed, with one factor being the means offered to reduce crime (rehabilitation versus imprisonment) and the other factor being the population under study (adults versus juveniles). There were no significant differences in willingness to pay for crime reduction across any of the four resulting groups. The findings suggest that the NSW public are equally disposed to reducing crime by rehabilitating offenders as they are to imprisoning them for longer. There would therefore seem every reason to pursue rehabilitation with greater vigour, especially in light of the relative cost‐effectiveness of rehabilitation programs over incarceration.     

基于精算模型参数调整的农村养老金可持续性仿真研究

随着人口老龄化进程加剧和新型农村社会养老保险制度全面覆盖,农村老年人群与养老需求激增,农村养老金收支失衡与不可持续风险快速加大。本文基于新农保筹资和给付的双重视角,应用总体法构建农村养老金收支与平衡精算模型,基于全国东、中、西部三省六县(市、区)新农保试点地区实地调研数据(有效问卷5031份),通过甄选并调整关键参数,预测农村养老金收支及差额变化与发展趋势,对其可持续性进行仿真研究,针对预测结果提出增强农村养老金可持续性的改革思路。研究结果表明,政策参数缴费率、补贴率和经济参数农民收入增长率、基金投资收益率的提高及其联动增长均有利于增强农村养老金的可持续性,而养老金计发月数的增减对农村养老金可持续性的影响方向并不统一,二者的联合增长对农村养老金的长期可持续性发展具有积极作用。本研究对于丰富、发展农村养老金精算建模与仿真理论、方法及农村社会保障制度完善、政策改进具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。     

当前我国资产评估中存在的问题及对策研究

资产评估业是我国经济生活中不可或缺的社会公正性中介服务行业 ,在社会主义市场经济中发挥着越来越广泛、越来越重要的作用。本文在深入探讨当前我国资产评估业存在的主要问题的基础上 ,提出了促进行业健康发展的具体构想。     

基于农户受偿意愿的征地补偿及影响因素分析——以湖北省4市25村354份问卷为证

基于湖北省四市的农户受偿意愿问卷调查,采用Logistic模型对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明,农户接受征地的平均受偿意愿为101.336万元/hm2,上次征地每公顷补偿程度、征地前后非农年收入差额程度、征地前后食品年支出差额程度、土地估算每公顷收入水平以及对土地作用的认知程度等5个因素对农户的受偿意愿有显著影响。提出"合理拉近实际补偿与农民受偿意愿差距"是现阶段征地改革的重要依据。