改革目标和企业风险度测定─—现代企业制度建设的关键

在建立现代企业制度的探索中,原有的“承包制”在实践中已暴露它的不足,与改革的深入不相适应。企业的生机在于竞争和风险。在商品经济条件下,企业经营实际上就是经营者运用创新手段,将受损风险转化为超额收获。而企业生产经营所存在的诸多不确定因素,可以通过概率论中的中心极限定理和经验,借鉴计划评审法（ＰＥＲＴ）中概率估算法对企业的经验风险度作出有价值的测定。     

De minimis and equity in risk

Indices and orderings are developed for evaluating alternative strategies in the management of risk. They reflect the goals of reducing individual and collective risks, of increasing equity, and of assigning priority to the reduction and to the equity of high risks. Individual risk is defined as the (random or non-random) level of exposure to a danger. In particular the role of a lower negligibility level is investigated. A class of indices is proposed which involves two parameters, a negligibility level and a parameter of inequality aversion, and several interpretations of the indices are discussed. We provide a set of eight axioms which are necessary and sufficient for this class of indices, and we present an approach to deal with partial information on the parameters.     

The Limitations and Opportunities of Business Process Re-engineering in a Politicized Organizational Climate

This paper is concerned with the organizationalchange and project management issues raised by theimplementation of a business process re-engineering(BPR) approach in the politicized hospital context. This is a report of research in progress,focusing on the issues arising at the problem definitionand project planning stages of a BPR application in anoperating theaters department experiencing problems with scheduling and delays. The research designrelies on a case study approach, with the researcher asparticipant observer, as both an adviser to the projectteam and as field interviewer. The paper argues that an ambitious BPR agenda is compromised inat least two regards. First, the lack of precisionsurrounding the focus and methodology of BPR givespolitically motivated actors considerable influence with respect to defining terms of reference in wayswhich will shape potential outcomes in their favor.Second, the complexity and indeterminacy of the businessprocess or patient trail can also diluteredesign attempts. The principal limitations of theapproach thus concern the impracticality of embarking onrapid and radical change working from a blanksheet of paper with respect to organizational and job design. BPR, unlike other organizationdevelopment interventions, is not a contextsensitive approach. The role of project manageris critical in establishing a working balance betweenindividual, occupational, and organizational goals in a manner perceivedto be legitimate in the context. Effective BPR projectmanagement thus requires a combination of political andprocess analysis skills. The principal opportunities of BPR derive from its process orientation,which brings a fresh perspective to a traditionally andfunctionally fragmented organizational setting, andwhich presents a potentially valuable platform for anevolutionary approach to process improvement.     

Comparative probability for conditional events: A new look through coherence

We study, from the standpoint of coherence, comparative probabilities on an arbitrary familyE of conditional events. Given a binary relation ·, coherence conditions on · are related to de Finetti's coherent betting system: we consider their connections to the usual properties of comparative probability and to the possibility of numerical representations of ·. In this context, the numerical reference frame is that of de Finetti's coherent subjective conditional probability, which is not introduced (as in Kolmogoroff's approach) through a ratio between probability measures.Another relevant feature of our approach is that the family & need not have any particular algebraic structure, so that the ordering can be initially given for a few conditional events of interest and then possibly extended by a step-by-step procedure, preserving coherence.     

Financial management: Development of scales

This study is a contribution to the development of family resource management scales, specifically financial management scales. Principal axis factor analysis, with varimax rotation, is used to assess underlying relationships in 23 family resource management variables related to time and money resources. Reliability and content, construct, and criterion-related validity of the scales are assessed. Two scales that are reliable and have some degree of validity are developed: frequency of financial problems and frequency of financial management. The scales could be used in future research, teaching, or counseling to organize financial management concepts.Preparation of this research was supported in part by the Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station. Data were collected in conjunction with the cooperative regional research project NC-182, Family Resource Utilization as a Factor in Determining Economic Well-Being of Rural Families. Cooperating states are Arizona, California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Minnesota.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois; her current research interests include gender roles, family financial management, and economic well-being.Her current research interests include family financial management and consumer bankruptcy. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Missouri.Her current research interests include the economic well-being of various family forms. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois. Her research interests are economic well-being and quality of life.     

一类供应链的线性转移支付激励机制研究

针对不同的供应链设计不同的契约是供应链协作的一个重要手段。在由一个零售商和一个供应商组成的供应链中,零售商的促销努力水平对供应链的效率有重大的影响,本文提出了一种线性转移支付激励机制,且证明了在该机制的作用下,零售商将付出对整个供应链最优的促销努力水平,这时供应链的总收益将得到提高,而对新增收益的划分则取决于供应商和零售商之间的讨价还价能力。     

金融市场多标度分形现象及与风险管理的关系

已有研究通过对汇率、股票收益率、黄金价格等金融市场实证数据的分析,发现这些数据 具有多标度分形(multifractal) 特征. 通过对中国金融市场的代表数据之一———上海证券交易 所综合股价指数(SSECI) 的研究得出了相似的结论,并且初步提出了运用多标度分形理论所 提供的信息来进行金融风险管理的风险管理思路.     

基于本体系统的知识管理人工智能研究

分析了知识管理中的信息组织难题和群体过程非结构化特性的本质意义. 介绍了用于解 决人工智能中非结构化问题的本体系统方法. 并通过支持群体交互知识管理的电子公共大脑 本体系统设计的案例,对本体系统方法的概念、构成和应用方法作了具有典型意义的示例性 介绍.     

Corporate Management,Industry Competition and the Sustainability of Firm Abnormal Profitability

This paper models the sustainability of firmabnormal profitability and uses theeffectiveness of corporate managementcapabilities as a test to examine its impact onthe sustainability of firm abnormalprofitability. The role of industry competitionas a moderator between the effectiveness ofcorporate management capabilities and thesustainability of firm abnormal profitabilityis also examined. Consistent with theresource-based view of the firm, we found thatthe effectiveness of corporate managementcapabilities positively influence thesustainability of firm abnormal profitability.This implies that corporate managementcapabilities are important contributors to theentire bundle of firm-specific resources andcapabilities which enable some firms togenerate competitive advantages that aresustainable. The effectiveness of corporatemanagement capabilities has a larger influenceon the sustainability of firm abnormalprofitability for firms in lowly competitive ormonopolistic industries than firms in highlycompetitive industries. The findings supportthe notion that not only do firm capabilitiesyield sustainable competitive advantages andabnormal profitability, but also industrycompetition reinforces the impact of firmcapabilities in yielding sustainable abnormalprofitability.     

Making Sense of Organizations in Public Management: A Back-to-Basics Approach

This article addresses some basic facts and ideas about organizations as a way of concluding the symposium. It identifies different types of organizations in terms of their legal-structural characteristics, and considers aspects of their legal power, ownership, financing, staffing, and outsourcing. It ends with some suggestions for further related research on organizations.