The social context of Welsh-medium bilingual education in anglicised areas

Principal component analysis of indicators from the 1991 Census was used to characterise the social context of school age Welsh speakers in South East Wales. The area had been largely anglicised by the Census of 1971, but the growth of Welsh-medium education was responsible for net gains in numbers of younger Welsh/English bilinguals. Doubts as to whether young people will remain active bilinguals after leaving school have been raised. The inter-relationships between figures for Welsh speaking in the Census and other social indicators were examined. Being categorised as a young Welsh speaker was found to cut across an economic advantage/disadvantage dimension, and so was a matter of life style rather than a by-product of parental choices unrelated to language resurgence. Probing life styles by means of interviews where Welsh-medium and English-medium schools could be matched on the economic advantage/disadvantage dimension showed that deciding for Welsh-medium education was embedded in authentic local life styles. Although networks of people at more local spatial scales were involved in Welsh-medium education, they were linked to wider scale networks establishing domains for Welsh language use in the public sector and local government.     

农村分家类型与三代直系家庭的变动趋势——基于对全国人口普查数据的分析

本研究基于全国人口普查数据,以及笔者已有关于农村分家类型数量模型的分析,对家庭结构再生产过程中的分化因素与组合因素进行了归纳,揭示了家庭结构再生产的内在逻辑,构建分家类型对家庭类型的微观作用机制．进而据此解释1990—2000年三代直系家庭的历史变动,并预测未来独子家庭结构再生产的变动趋势。结论是：（1）家庭结构再生产的过程中,家庭结构的分裂因素对组合因素的优势日益明显,无论是在独子家庭还是在多子家庭都是这样。（2）自1990年以来三代直系家庭比重上升的内在原因是多子分家类型的急剧减少．由此而减少了大量核心家庭,而相对提升了三代直系家庭的比例．三代直系家庭本身的演变趋势是走向日益瓦解,特别是在日益增加的独子家庭中,分裂因素日渐强势并占据主导地位,三代直系家庭在未来将会顽强坚持的判断可能是靠不住的。文章最后回应了学界关于中国家庭结构问题的争论。     

我国人力资本分布与流动的研究——基于“五普”与“六普”的比较分析

利用中国人口普查资料分析并比较中国人力资本存量和结构的分布现状与变化．阐述了人力资本流动时人力资本分布的影响,结果表明：我国人力资本空间分布不均衡,人力资本流动“俱乐部趋同”现象明显,但人力资本分布结构有收敛趋势。在此基础上提出加强增长极建设,建立人力资本提升机制的政策建议。     

Trajectories of Fertility and Household Composition in the Demographic Profile of the Czech Republic

The household composition matrix is a representation of the demographic structure of households, specific to age groups of household members and household heads. As such, the matrix reflects also the environmental conditions, housing in particular, that mould households' demographic structure. By specifically depicting the presence of children in households, household composition could be viewed as gauging fertility within the context of housing conditions. This stance is examined in an application to Czech census data for the year 1991, at the commencement of an intense process of socio-economic transformation that accompanied the collapse of communism across Eastern Europe. Within this process, housing had an inadvertent impact upon the structure of households in general, and upon fertility decline in particular. By using the standard matrix representation of household composition, correspondence between trajectories of age-specific fertility and household composition emerge throughout the Czech Republic. This correspondence illustrates the potential household composition analysis carries for fertility measurement and estimation in rapidly changing economic environments.     

名籍、户籍、编户齐民——试论春秋战国时期户籍制度的起源

户籍制度是随着国家的形成而产生的一种社会制度,是国家对人民实行道德教化、经济剥削、人身控制的重要途径。春秋中晚期以前,宗族制度是统治者控制社会的有效手段,完整意义上的户籍制度并不存在,社会组织形态表现为“以丁为户”的名籍;春秋以后,随着血缘关系被地缘关系所取代,宗法政治逐渐转化为郡县政治,“以户定籍”的户籍逐步确立,并在战国时期形成了在中国社会延续了两千余年的编户齐民制度。     

“五普”人口总量和结构的分析与调整

以人口普查资料为基础,运用人口存活分析方法和数值拟合思想,并辅之以其他统计数据和对比分析方法,分析五普数据中的重报和漏报,对普查人口总量和结构进行调整。研究发现,“五普”0-9岁人口存在漏报,漏报人口为3 743万;而10-60岁人口存在重报,重报人口为1 134万人;最终调整五普人口总数为127 120万,普查人口漏报率为2.05%。     

人口普查覆盖误差估计方法综述

人口普查工作的质量主要体现在覆盖误差的规模上.人口统计学家创建了估计人口普查覆盖误差的方法.有些方法利用独立于人口普查本身的信息,另外一些方法则利用人口行政记录的信息.由于每种方法都有其特定的形成背景和适用范围,因而没有适合于所有国家和地区的通用方法.通过对美国、新西兰、澳大利亚、英国和中国的人口普查覆盖误差估计方法进行了较为详细的介绍,说明了这些方法的使用情况.研究表明,任何一种估计方法都有其局限性,需要不断改进与完善.     

A new variant of dual-record population estimation with an application in remote indigenous communities

Dual-record system methods are commonly used as a basis for population estimation. A basic assumption is that the units sampled are drawn only from the population to be estimated. This assumption cannot be met for remote Indigenous communities in Australia. A new variant of dual-record population estimation is presented, which relies on the availability of specific additional information to relax the assumption of perfect frame specification. This variant is applied to two remote Indigenous communities in the Northern Territory of Australia, using locally available data sources. Further theoretical exploration of this method is presented along with possible applications in estimating area-enumerated populations and census coverage.     

人口数目估计中的独立双系统估计量研究

利用存在统计相依关系的两份人口登记名单构造的非独立双系统估计量是目前估计总体实际人口数的前沿方法。该估计量由最初用于估计一个区域内的野生动物数目的捕获-再捕获模型移植而来。非独立双系统估计量的一个明显缺陷是低估总体实际人口数。用独立双系统估计量替代非独立双系统估计量属于人口数目估计领域的理论创新研究。采用数理分析与实证分析相结合的方法研究独立双系统估计量及其方差估计量。为便于读者理解,通过一个实证案例全面演示了独立双系统估计量的计算过程。研究表明,独立双系统估计量所估计的人口数平均接近于实际人口数,建议在未来人口数目估计中应用独立双系统估计量。     

我国留守老人状况研究

本研究利用2000年我国第五次人口普查抽样数据对我国留守老人的总量、年龄构成、地区构成和家庭类型等进行了分析。结果表明,目前我国留守老人总量为1790万人,留守老人分布密度在市镇乡之间和地区之间存在明显差异,人口流动使生活在隔代家庭的老年人比重大大增加。