2000-2010年福建省人口死亡统计分析

人口死亡水平的变动与趋势包含了与社会发展互为因果的潜在信息,对其进行挖掘可以为人口数量与素质、城市化与劳动就业、人口分布与资源环境承载力以及人口老龄化等问题的解决提供重要参考。基于“五普”、“六普”的人口普查数据,文章利用模型生命表方法对福建省的人口死亡率进行了校正;宏观角度对比分析了2000年-2010年福建省人口死亡水平与模式变化,微观多角度剖析了设区市之间预期寿命、婴儿死亡的差异及其原因。研究结论为：一是福建省人口死亡率显著降低,人口健康水平大幅提升,婴儿死亡漏报、错报问题明显减少;二是九个设区市之间的死亡模式存在地区差异,城市化水平、生育水平及社会卫生条件是差异产生的显著性影响因素,但经济发展、教育水平和公共医疗卫生的作用不明显。     

《元丰九域志》户口、铸钱监和盐产地年代考

《元丰九域志》政区基本上为元丰八年之制,说明其于元丰三年成书后,又经修定。但其户口、铸钱监的年代均为元丰二年,盐产地的年代则为元丰元年或二年,和政区的年代不同,应是初成书时的原貌。     

从经济普查看中国服务业

 摘　　要:第一次全国经济普查后，国家统计局对GDP数据进行了重大修正。在2004年2．3万亿元的修正量中，服务业增加值的修正量为2．13万亿元，占总修正量的93％。服务业增加值占GDP的比重由修正前的31．9％上升到修正后的40．7％。而服务业就业人数却较统计年鉴数据减少了7592万人，降幅达33％。各地区生产总值与结构的变化改变了各省、市、自治区的原有排名，反映出一些新的情况。本文对经济普查后中国GDP总量、结构和速度的修订、地区生产总量及结构变化、服务业就业人员情况进行了分析，探讨了数据变化的原因及其影响，并对中国服务业发展水平进行了国际比较 。     

Modelling the effect of pupil mobility on school differences in educational achievement

Summary.  The recently introduced national pupil database in England allows the tracking of every child through the compulsory phases of the state education system. The data from key stage 2 for three local education authorities are studied, following cohorts of pupils through their schooling. The mobility of pupils among schools is studied in detail by using multiple-membership multilevel models that include prior achievement and other predictors and the results are compared with traditional 'value-added' approaches that ignore pupil mobility. The analysis also includes a cross-classification of junior and infant schools attended. The results suggest that some existing conclusions about schooling effects may need to be revised.     

我国人口普查中城镇人口统计口径探讨

本文通过对 1982年 ,1990年和 2 0 0 0年人口普查中城镇人口统计口径变化的具体分析 ,解释了国家统计局两次修改城镇人口统计口径的具体原因 ,并通过对重庆市和南海市的具体情况分析 ,说明了我国历次人口普查的城市化水平数据是反映了我国的实际情况的、是可比的     

基于普查的抽样框编制方法探讨

能否在普查的基础上科学编制抽样框是在我国统计调查方法体系中能否真正确立普查的基础地位和抽样调查的主体地位的关键。抽样总体单元与目标总体单元的一致性,有效辅助信息最大化与费用最小化的均衡性和具体操作的实用性,是编制优良抽样框的基本要求。基于普查的抽样框编制方法路径为:第一步,抓好源头,打牢基础,编制好基础抽样框;第二步,实况连结,具体处理,编制好操作抽样框。     

中国经济普查数据质量评估的改进与完善

 根据官方公布的两次中国经济普查方案和相关数据质量抽查实施办法,本文在分析现有经济普查数据质量评估特点的基础上,具体论述了引入基于事后重复调查的偏差估计、扩展普查登记数据准确性的评估方法、在普查数据质量抽查中采用系统完善的抽样设计等改进措施,期望能够进一步完善经济普查数据质量评估的理论方法。     

Declining social mobility? Evidence from five linked censuses in England and Wales 1971–2011

In this paper we add to the existing evidence base on recent trends in inter‐generational social mobility in England and Wales. We analyse data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS‐LS), which links individual records from the five decennial censuses between 1971 and 2011. The ONS‐LS is an excellent data resource for the study of social mobility because it has a very large sample size, excellent population coverage and low rates of nonresponse and attrition across waves. Additionally, the structure of the study means that we can observe the occupations of LS‐members' parents when they were children and follow their own progress in the labour market at regular intervals into middle age. Counter to widespread prevailing beliefs, our results show evidence of a small but significant increase in social fluidity between 1950s and the 1980s for both men and women.     

Spatial modelling of the two‐party preferred vote in Australian federal elections: 2001–2016

We examine the relationships between electoral socio‐demographic characteristics and two‐party preferences in the six Australian federal elections held between 2001 and 2016. Socio‐demographic information is derived from the Australian Census which occurs every 5 years. Since a census is not directly available for each election, an imputation method is employed to estimate census data for the electorates at the time of each election. This accounts for both spatial and temporal changes in electoral characteristics between censuses. To capture any spatial heterogeneity, a spatial error model is estimated for each election, which incorporates a spatially structured random effect vector. Over time, the impact of most socio‐demographic characteristics that affect electoral two‐party preference do not vary, with age distribution, industry of work, incomes, household mobility and relationships having strong effects in each of the six elections. Education and unemployment are among those that have varying effects. All data featured in this study have been contributed to the eechidna R package (available on CRAN).     

中国少数民族全面建成小康社会进展评估——基于人口普查数据的分析

利用人口普查数据,选取《全面建设小康社会统计监测指标体系》的几个代理指标,分析我国少数民族全面小康建设的进展状况发现:第一,2000年以来,少数民族全面小康建设取得显著进展,但与总人口比较,除平均预期寿命外,其余指标的实现程度离全面小康还比较远,特别是第三产业就业和城镇化,差距尤其大.第二,少数民族全面小康建设族际间显著不平衡.第三,从各地区少数民族全面小康实现程度看,经济发达地区少数民族主要以散居为主,全面小康实现程度高,而集聚于经济欠发达地区的少数民族,全面小康实现程度低.因此,未来5年全面建成小康社会,难点在少数民族和民族地区,重点也在少数民族和民族地区.加快经济发展和实现基本公共服务均等化供给,是少数民族和民族地区经济发展的两个主要方面,政府支持的重点在于加快少数民族和民族地区产业结构的转换与升级,着力于加强非农产业特别是第三产业的发展,进而推动城镇化和城乡一体化;着力于加快传统农牧业的改造,可持续提高农牧民收入水平;着力于美丽乡村建设,进一步提高生活质量;着力于乡村基础设施建设,实现乡域、县域经济一体化,夯实底部经济;着力于加强民族地区和少数民族的职业技术教育和大中专教育,进一步少数民族劳动力的技能水平;着力于加强少数民族和民族地区文化基础设施建设.