候鸟型生活的终结:农民工择巢命题解读

庞大的"候鸟型农民工"群体为城市发展做出贡献,但频繁奔波于城乡的候鸟型生活的艰辛,也带来一些负效应。在城乡统筹深化进程中,农民工是迎接"落地生根"式的市民化还是"还归乡村"以终结候鸟型生活?该命题的解读密码在于:国情背景下"目标城市"的特有命题、与城镇化阶段相容的渐进式"开城移民"之路与渐进式户籍改革过程;此外,也需理解土地管理制度改革、城市病与新农村发展愿景等相关范畴。     

吕太后事迹与“潜用福威”及“尚私食其”考辨

《史记.吕太后本纪》之《索隐述赞》评述吕太后有"潜用福威"与"尚私食其"两种异文,综合考察《史记》所载吕太后事迹、《史记》版本流传及后人对吕后评价与司马贞撰写《史记索隐》本旨等方面,"尚私食其"均较前者义胜。     

中国少数民族人口老龄化问题研究

利用1990、2000和2010年人口普查数据,分析中国少数民族人口的老龄化问题发现,中国各少数民族人口随全国人口一起,共同进入了持续老龄化的状态,且表现为老年人口规模及其占总人口的比例增长快,75岁以上的高龄老年人增速快,老年人口规模大,老年负担系数大,老龄化族际差异大的＂两高三大＂的特征。文章认为,在未来一个相当长的时期内,少数民族人口的老龄化趋势将会持续下去,老龄化程度会进一步提高。同时,中国少数民族集聚区,经济社会发展水平低,在这一背景下步入老龄化社会,属于典型的＂未富先老＂。要解决好少数民族人口老龄化问题,首先应尽快调整人口政策,以积极的人口对策化解深度人口老龄化进程中的社会压力与经济负担;其次要转变方式,调整结构,切实加快少数民族和民族地区的经济社会发展;第三,要充分开发和利用＂银色人力资源＂,加快发展老龄事业和老龄产业;第四,以健康老龄化为中心构建全民敬老爱老社会服务机制,广泛动员和吸纳社会中介组织、志愿者与社会资源参与。     

中国少数民族人口职业结构变迁研究

利用人口普查数据,对我国少数民族在业人口的职业结构进行分析发现：第一,少数民族总体的在业人口职业分布中,除农、林、牧、渔、水利业生产人员占比远远超过总人口和汉族外,其余各职业人口比例均低于总人口和汉族人口的水平。第二,在业人口职业结构的性别差异及变化趋势说明女性地位在1990～2010年间的逐步提高。第三,从脑力劳动和体力劳动的比例看,少数民族脑力劳动占比低,体力劳动占比超过90％,农村体力劳动占比接近70％。第四,各少数民族在业人口职业结构的多样化程度有所提高。第五,各少数民族间职业结构的族际差异显著。第六,城镇化水平及人口受教育程度是决定在业人口职业结构的主要因素。根据以上分析,我们认为近十年来,少数民族的社会排斥程度在上升。这种上升已经或正在引起一些社会问题,甚至是政治稳定问题,应引起高度关注。为此,首先要进一步加强对少数民族教育的支持力度。其次,在公务员招考中,应提高少数民族的比例,使得其与人口比例相称。第三,规定在少数民族地区的项目中,规定招收少数民族工人的比例,并对超过比例的给予鼓励。     

A Study on the Change in Occupational Structure of China’ s Ethnic Minorities

The occupational structure of the employed population and its changes reflect the level of economic development and the change of social status of a population group .Based on cen-sus data , this paper analyzes the occupational structure of the employed population of China ＇ s ethnic minorities.It shows that： 1 ） Among the employed population of the eth-nic minorities （ excepting those people who are en-gaged in forestry , animal husbandry and fishery , etc., a proportion which is higher than the overall population or the Han ） , the proportion is lower than in either the overall population or the Han population . 2 ） The gender differences and directional change of the occupational structure of the em-ployed population indicates that the status of women was gradually promoted during the period 1990 to 2010. 3） Seen from the proportion of those engaged in mental labor versus physical labor;the proportion ethnic minorities engaged in mental labor is low . 4） The degree of diversity in the occupational structure of the ethnic minorities has made some improvement. 5 ） The ethnic differences in occupational structure are obvious . 6） The urbanization level and the educational level of the population are the key factors which determine the occupational structure of the em-ployed population . From this study , we feel that the degree of so-cial exclusion of the ethnic minorities has gone up during the past ten years .This ＂going up＂ has lead or is leading to social problems .Hence, it is necessary to pay high attention to this issue .Re-garding this, the author thinks that , firstly, sup-port to ethnic minority education should be en-hanced;secondly , the proportion of ethnic minori-ty people in civil servant recruitment should be im-proved;thirdly, the proportion of the employment of ethnic minority workers in projects in ethnic mi-nority regions should be stipulated .     

人口数目估计中的独立双系统估计量研究

利用存在统计相依关系的两份人口登记名单构造的非独立双系统估计量是目前估计总体实际人口数的前沿方法。该估计量由最初用于估计一个区域内的野生动物数目的捕获-再捕获模型移植而来。非独立双系统估计量的一个明显缺陷是低估总体实际人口数。用独立双系统估计量替代非独立双系统估计量属于人口数目估计领域的理论创新研究。采用数理分析与实证分析相结合的方法研究独立双系统估计量及其方差估计量。为便于读者理解,通过一个实证案例全面演示了独立双系统估计量的计算过程。研究表明,独立双系统估计量所估计的人口数平均接近于实际人口数,建议在未来人口数目估计中应用独立双系统估计量。     

基于生存分析法的医疗电子病历系统采纳与扩散研究

医疗电子病历系统作为中国医疗信息化建设的核心,关注其采纳与扩散机理,对推进医疗卫生信息化建设,以及实现有意义地使用具有重要的理论和实践意义。基于云南省222家医院信息化建设的调研数据,运用半参数生存分析法即Cox回归模型探讨医院采纳电子病历系统的影响因素及扩散机理。研究表明,教学状态、医院规模和建院时间均为有利因素,即这三个因素积极促进医院采纳电子病历系统;时间×规模为不利因素,即它对医院采纳电子病历系统有负向影响;地理位置在分层和删减样本的模型分析中均表现为不利因素;医院等级影响并不明显。     

Multicultural nationalism? National identities among minority groups in Scotland’s census

This paper uses data from a new question in the 2011 UK censuses of population to investigate national identities among ethnic and religious minorities. It focuses primarily on Scotland, while presenting comparative data for England and Wales. A robust comparison of national identities between different minorities in Scotland and with similar groups in other nations of Britain has previously not been possible because ethnic and religious minority groups represent a small proportion of Scotland’s population and are weakly represented in sample surveys. The new census question on national identity therefore offers an unprecedented opportunity for this kind of analysis. The analysis is used to critically evaluate previous claims of the existence of multicultural nationalism in Scotland and previous research that has suggested that Scottish identity is relatively inclusive of people in minority groups. The findings suggest that while Scottish national identity is relatively inclusive of minorities in some respects, the conclusions of previous research should be treated with some caution.     

和谐社会背景下农民工子女义务教育问题及对策分析

农民工为社会主义现代化事业做出了重大贡献,但是农民工子女的义务教育问题是建设和谐社会过程中一个比较突出的问题。文章从构建和谐社会的角度出发,对解决农民工子女义务教育存在的问题提出改革户籍制度、加大财政投入等对策。     

质朴美——周同宾散文的特色

以"一部乡土史书"<皇天后土>荣获中国首届"鲁迅文学奖"的南阳作家周同宾,经几十年孜孜不倦的追求,形成了他独具特色的散文语言.他善于博取众家之长,追求为人作文的真诚,使其散文短小精悍,文质精美,以真情动人,成为20世纪末中国文坛上一道亮丽的风景.