基于模糊层次综合评判方法的企业投资财务评价

企业投资管理的财务评价包括数量评价和质量评价两个方面,其中投资管理的数量评价是与企业战略发展结构的贯彻、核心能力的强化以及管理控制的跟进息息相关的;投资管理的质量评价则建立在时间价值和现金流量的考量之上。鉴于企业财务信息的模糊性特征,建立基于模糊层次综合方法的企业投资管理的财务评价方法,无疑为企业投资管理的财务评价开辟了一种新的思路。     

The effect of information on health risk valuations

This article examines the effect of familiarity with chronic lung disease on people's willingness to pay to reduce their risk of contracting chronic bronchitis, and on their willingness to increase their risk of auto death to reduce chronic bronchitis risk. We find that persons who have a relative with chronic lung disease are willing to give up more income to reduce their risk of chronic bronchitis than persons with no first-hand knowledge of the disease; however, their willingness to increase their risk of auto death to reduce their risk of chronic bronchitis is no different, on average, than persons with no first-hand knowledge of lung disease. This suggests that responses to risk-risk tradeoffs may be more stable than responses to risk-income choices.This research was sponsored by Resources for the Future and by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy Planning and Evaluation, Alan Carlin and Joel Scheraga, project officers. We thank Robert Mitchell for his help in conducting focus groups, and Caroline Harnett and Sari Radin for research assistance. Stan Presser, Sue Dowden, and Tim Triplett of the University of Maryland's Survey Research Center administered the survey. We especially thank Stan Presser for his suggestion that we sample relatives of people with chronic lung disease. We also thank Kip Viscusi, Wes Magat, and Joel Huber for making available their computer programs and data, and Ajay Kalra for programming help. Paul Portney and John Mullahy provided useful comments on an earlier draff of the article, as did two referees.     

工程量清单和合理低价评标法的探讨

探讨在适应市场机制和W TO的工程量清单计价模式下,建设工程招标定标过程中采用“合理低价评标法”可能出现的无序低价的情况及危害,并且提出解决此问题的几点建议。     

Valuing housework time from willingness to spend time and money for environmental quality improvements

We develop a new approach to assessing the value of home production time based on willingness to spend time and money to obtain environmental improvements. When peoples’ choice is constrained by time as well as money, measures of willingness to pay can be defined with respect to either numeraire. In a model that explicitly allows for multiple shadow values of time, we show that the willingness to pay time and money measures are linked through the value of saving time. With survey information on peoples’ willingness to spend additional time on housework activities, as well as pay money, to obtain environmental quality improvements, joint estimation within a utility-consistent structure produces estimates of both willingness to pay and the value of saving housework time. From the value of saving housework time, the marginal value of housework time can be readily identified. When applied to Korean households’ valuation of water quality improvements in the Man Kyoung River, we find that the value of housework time is 70–80% of the market wage.

亚式期权在依赖时间的参数下的定价

假定标的资产价格模型中的参数为时间t 的函数(即无风险利率r ( t) ,标的资产的期望 收益率μ( t) ,波动率σ( t) 及红利率g ( t) ) ,利用风险中性定价及随机积分的性质,得到连续几 何平均欧式亚式期权在六种情形下价格的解析公式和一个平价关系,且通过调整执行价格的 形式而得到固定执行价格的连续算术平均欧式亚式期权的渐进公式     

基于决策导向的企业内在价值评估与案例研究

针对企业决策信息优化的现实需求,应用企业战略管理和业绩评价的相关理论,在重新定义内在价值的基础上,探讨了其评估的必要性和可行性,并据以设计了评估技术方案。随后以宝钢股份公司为研究对象,对其内在价值进行了模拟评估。研究认为:企业内在价值是企业在要素市场和商品市场规律制约下,受历史惯性、现行结构和演进态势共同影响的现金流量折现的专业判断,是企业行为定位和态势的集合;通过试点企业内在价值评估,可以发挥其检验账面价值和制衡市场价值的决策参考功效。     

民众本位:当代中国政府绩效评估的基本价值取向

政府绩效评估对监督政府行为、提高政府绩效、改善政府形象有重要意义.当代中国政府绩效评估的基本价值取向是"民众本位",这是由我国的社会主义性质所决定的,同时也是中国体制转轨与政府行为的价值取向转变的必然结果.我国政府绩效价值取向以民为本的途径是:扩大公众对绩效评估的参与程度,使绩效评估能真正表达公众利益,反映公众对政府的责任要求;绩效评估应着重于政府行为的实际效果,满足社会公众对公共服务的需求;完善绩效评估过程中的经济指标测定,降低政府与公众的"成本投入".     

价值相关性的实证研究方法评述

本文梳理了价值相关性研究的研究方法及其发展,并对其进行评述。按研究方法分,价值相关性研究分为事件研究法和估值模型法。事件研究法依赖有效市场假说,仅能检验某一事件能否引起市场反应,其对权益价值的具体影响则难以估计,而且短窗口选择存在操作上的困难。估值模型法在实证检验中应用相对较广,然而几乎所有的估值模型都没要考虑期权的影响,而且运用价格模型和收益模型有时得到截然相反的结论。因此,本文认为,今后的研究应重点关注三个方面：第一,继续修正估值模型。第二,抛开相关性和可靠性联合检验的方式,关注会计信息的可靠性。第三,应多角度研究价值相关性,而不仅仅局限于投资者视角。     

Effects of Risk Representation and Scope on Willingness to Pay for Reduced Risks: Evidence from Tokyo Bay, Japan

When applying the contingent valuation method (CVM) in risk reduction studies, some studies report that willingness to pay (WTP) is insensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction while other studies do not. On the other hand, social-psychological research has shown that the affect heuristic biases judgments on probability, relative frequency, and risk. This article examines both magnitude (or scope) effect and affect heuristic (or representation) effect on WTP for risk reduction measures against tsunamis by introducing two experimental (i.e., absolute and relative) systems with four different representations to evaluate public behaviors in two different scenarios of risk reduction. Two common denominators (100 and 10,000) are introduced into absolute risk reduction representation (i.e., "of every 100 persons, from present 2 deaths to 1") to form different formats (i.e., "of every 10,000 persons from 200 to 100," and "of every 100,000 persons from 2,000 deaths to 1,000"). There is little evidence that WTP estimates are sufficiently sensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction, but relative risk reduction representations may be better than the absolute one given in CVM mail surveys when the risk is small. There is a statistically insignificant effect of risk reduction representations on respondent frequency, but mixed effects on the monetary values of WTP at the level of 0.05. The representation effect of absolute risk reduction on the WTP value varies with the common denominator. The larger the common denominator, the less the WTP to reduce the risk of tsunamis, and the significance probability is improved to less than the level of 0.05 when the common denominator becomes large enough. The findings suggest that improved methods are required for estimating the rates of tradeoff between fatality risk and other goods among consumers.     

The Higher Education White Paper: The Good,the Bad,the Unspeakable – and the Next White Paper1

This article argues that reforms of higher education finance for undergraduates in England introduced by the Blair government in 2006 provided a progressive strategy for achieving the central objectives of higher education of quality (better), access (wider) and size (larger). Reforms in 2012 are a not a strategy but a collection of ad hoc arrangements. They include the good (a higher fees cap, a higher interest rate on student loans, better information and improved support for part‐time study), the bad (abolishing most taxpayer support for teaching in the arts and humanities and the social sciences, and raising excessively the threshold at which loan repayments start) and the unspeakable (abolishing Education Maintenance Allowances and AimHigher). The reforms are fiscally costly and hence perpetuate the central problem of capped student numbers, and will not stand the test of time. The concluding section outlines the next White Paper.