国有投资控股公司全面风险管理

针对目前中国国有投资控股公司在风险管理上存在的问题。采用理论分析与图示结合的方法构建了适用于国有投资控股公司的全面风险管理体系，从而加强其在风险管理方面的能力，以提升投资控股公司的管理水平和投资能力，进一步稳固其在国民经济中的重要地位。     

Cognitive and Emotional Representations of Terror Attacks: A Cross-Cultural Exploration

A questionnaire measuring cognitive and affective representations of terror risk was developed and tested in Turkey and Israel. Participants in the study were university students from the two countries (n= 351). Four equivalent factors explained terror risk cognitions in each sample: costs, vulnerability, trust, and control. A single negative emotionality factor explained the affective component of terror risk representations in both samples. All factors except control could be measured reliably. Results supported the validity of the questionnaire by showing expected associations between cognitions and emotions, as well as indicating gender differences and cultural variations. Current findings are discussed in relation to previous results, theoretical approaches, and practical implications.     

重大利益相关的教育评价中应引入宽容理念

"高考"这类与考生存在重大利益相关的考试,受到社会过度关注。这类考试的改革中存在一种倾向:追求评价更加全面、更完善、更符合表象上的公正,其结果是对学生更加的不宽容。社会对人才需要的多样性以及人才成长的规律表明,应在这类考试中引入宽容理念,为教育评价改革,为走出高考改革的困境提供新的思路。     

保险中的道德风险及其防范

保险市场中存在的信息不对称,保险公司内部管理不规范,现有保险相关法规不健全,以及一些违法犯罪分子诈保骗赔等是产生保险道德风险的主要原因。那么,建立风险评估机制和保险调查人制度,建立健全保险公司间信息共享制度,完善保险合同中承保、理赔方式等则可防范保险的道德风险。     

Regression Modelling of Disease Risk in Relation to Point Sources

We describe a class of models for the investigation of possible raised risk of disease around putative sources of environmental pollution. An adaptation of the point process method suggested by Diggle and Rowlingson is presented, allowing the use of routinely available aggregated data and incorporating the more general distance–risk model suggested by Elliott and co-workers. An application to data on cancers of the stomach around municipal solid waste incinerators is presented.     

高校运动伤害的风险管理研究

学校体育由于自身特点和运动实践的教学方式决定，存在着一定的风险性。其中常见的运动伤害类型分为运动引起特殊性疾病复发，带伤带病参加运动使伤病加重，运动造成的跌、撞、外伤三类。诸多造成运动伤害的原因与管理不善有关。为了有效地预防和控制运动伤害的发生，借鉴金融投资风险管理的策略和方法，分析识别学校运动伤害风险类别，选择采用风险管理的相关策略与方法，提出了学校体育教学的风险管理框架。     

Remedial Policies in Radiologically-Contaminated Forests: Environmental Consequences and Risk Assessment

As a result of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, large forested areas in Europe were contaminated by radionuclides. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions not only economic costs, but also human and environmental risk assessment are desired. Forest remediation by organic layer removal, one of the most promising cleanup policies, is considered in this paper. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in forests. The FORESTPATH model^(1,2) is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the application of the remedial policy. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus.     

Communicating Risks and Benefits from Fish Consumption: Impact on Belgian Consumers' Perception and Intention to Eat Fish

Communicating about the health effects of fish and seafood may potentially result in a conflict situation: increasing intake is desirable because of health and nutritional benefits, but higher consumption may also lead to an increased intake of potentially harmful environmental contaminants. In order to anticipate the communication challenge this conflict may pose, the research presented here aimed to assess the impact of risk/benefit communication on Belgian consumers' fish consumption behavior and fish attribute perception. Data were collected in June 2005 from a sample of 381 women, aged between 20 and 50 years. An experimental design consisting of four message conditions (benefit‐only; risk‐only; benefit‐risk; and risk‐benefit) combined with three information sources (fish and food industry; consumer organization; government) was used. Exposure to the benefit‐only message resulted in an increase from a self‐reported fish consumption frequency of 4.2 times per month to an intended fish consumption frequency of 5.1 times per month (+21%), while fish attribute perceptions only marginally improved. The risk‐only message resulted in a strong negative perceptual change in the range of two points on a seven‐point scale. This translated into an 8% decrease of behavioral intention (from eating fish 4.5 times per month to an intention of eating fish 4.1 times per month). Balanced messages referring to both risks and benefits yielded no significant change in behavioral intention, despite a significant worsening of fish attribute perception. The presentation order of benefits and risks in the balanced message showed a tendency to affect both behavioral intention and attribute perception, with the first message component being most influential. Information source did not yield any significant impact either on behavioral intention or on attribute perceptions, independent of the message content. The results from this study provide valuable insights for future risk/benefit and balanced communication about seafood.     

基于风险区划的水稻区域产量保险费率研究

根据农作物生产风险程度大致类似的原则，以非参数核密度信息扩散模型为核心，通过主导指标下的聚类分析方法对湖北省水稻生产县市进行了风险区划。以此为基础对湖北省水稻区域产量保险纯费率进行厘定，得出在80％保障水平下，潜江，仙桃等高风险地区的水稻保险费率为7．1％；恩施、十堰等较高风险地区水稻保险费率为5．49％；武汉，黄石，咸宁等中风险地区费率为3．17％；宜昌，襄樊等低风险地区费率为2．08％。