消费者对转基因食品感知风险影响因素分析

采用西安市区消费者的调研数据,分析消费者对转基因食品感知风险的认知程度,并利用结构方程模型研究了影响感知风险的主要因素。结果表明:不同人口特征在转基因食品感知风险上存在显著差异,消费者对转基因技术的态度、转基因食品知识、社会信任与感知风险呈显著负向关系,对健康的关心与感知风险呈显著正向关系。最后根据研究结果,提出政策建议。     

禽流感疫情管理中的问题与挑战：一项基于家禽风险管理的实证研究*

以往的疫情报告表明,小规模养殖方式的存在是导致疫情爆发的主要根源。如何对小规模养殖方式实施监督是重建整个疫情规训设置的重中之重。然而,调查表明,现有疫情规训机制是基于现代养殖场的风险管理模式建立的,不论“知识-权力”设置,还是管理技术都难以对小规模养殖方式和散养方式实施有效监管。而且,在整个乡村,盛行着工业化养殖文化（现代养殖文化）和有机养殖文化（传统养殖文化）的话语权之争。因此,为了应对碎片化风险管理现状,不仅需要进一步完善现有的“知识-权力”设置,而且需要重新定义工业化养殖文化,以克服现有“混杂性”小规模养殖方式的诟病,真正建立有效的疫情管理机制。     

碳捕获与封存技术法律规制的现状及问题研究

当前,由于化石能源的大规模使用带来大量二氧化碳排放,导致全球气候加速变暖,严重影响着人类的社会生活。为解决这一问题,世界各国都在积极探索"节能减排"措施,其中碳捕获与封存技术因具有减排能力强、成本低廉等优势而备受青睐。但该技术也存在着很大的风险,必须对该技术依法进行规制,然而由于这是一个新兴的技术项目,世界各国在法律规制方面都存在着比较大的问题,突出表现在安全方面、管辖权方面、责任归属和诉讼管辖权方面的法律规制不健全,这在一定程度上制约了该技术的健康发展。     

利率市场化下商业银行风险管理

我国利率市场化已经持续进行了18年,目前只剩下存款利率上限还未完全放开。通过以我国上市商业银行实际为例,在分析评估利率风险、信用风险主要表现和变化趋势基础上,对利率市场化下银行风险管理提出了健全利率风险管理体系、提升利率风险管理技术、提高定价能力和发展中间业务等建议,将利率风险降至最低,不断完善银行风险管理。     

基于小样本的安全第一投资组合优化模型

为了解决小样本情况下安全第一投资组合选择问题,将结构风险最小化原则引入投资组合选择过程中。根据结构风险最小化原则的直接实现,构建了含有范数约束的安全第一投资组合优化模型,并研究了模型参数的选取方法。实验结果验证了本模型的有效性。     

Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality: Time‐Related Factors in Exposure and Risk

To develop a quantitative exposure‐response relationship between concentrations and durations of inhaled diesel engine exhaust (DEE) and increases in lung cancer risks, we examined the role of temporal factors in modifying the estimated effects of exposure to DEE on lung cancer mortality and characterized risk by mine type in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort, which followed 12,315 workers through December 1997. We analyzed the data using parametric functions based on concepts of multistage carcinogenesis to directly estimate the hazard functions associated with estimated exposure to a surrogate marker of DEE, respirable elemental carbon (REC). The REC‐associated risk of lung cancer mortality in DEMS is driven by increased risk in only one of four mine types (limestone), with statistically significant heterogeneity by mine type and no significant exposure‐response relationship after removal of the limestone mine workers. Temporal factors, such as duration of exposure, play an important role in determining the risk of lung cancer mortality following exposure to REC, and the relative risk declines after exposure to REC stops. There is evidence of effect modification of risk by attained age. The modifying impact of temporal factors and effect modification by age should be addressed in any quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of DEE. Until there is a better understanding of why the risk appears to be confined to a single mine type, data from DEMS cannot reliably be used for QRA.     

Reanalysis of the DEMS Nested Case‐Control Study of Lung Cancer and Diesel Exhaust: Suitability for Quantitative Risk Assessment

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 2012 upgraded its hazard characterization of diesel engine exhaust (DEE) to “carcinogenic to humans.” The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort and nested case‐control studies of lung cancer mortality in eight U.S. nonmetal mines were influential in IARC's determination. We conducted a reanalysis of the DEMS case‐control data to evaluate its suitability for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Our reanalysis used conditional logistic regression and adjusted for cigarette smoking in a manner similar to the original DEMS analysis. However, we included additional estimates of DEE exposure and adjustment for radon exposure. In addition to applying three DEE exposure estimates developed by DEMS, we applied six alternative estimates. Without adjusting for radon, our results were similar to those in the original DEMS analysis: all but one of the nine DEE exposure estimates showed evidence of an association between DEE exposure and lung cancer mortality, with trend slopes differing only by about a factor of two. When exposure to radon was adjusted, the evidence for a DEE effect was greatly diminished, but was still present in some analyses that utilized the three original DEMS DEE exposure estimates. A DEE effect was not observed when the six alternative DEE exposure estimates were utilized and radon was adjusted. No consistent evidence of a DEE effect was found among miners who worked only underground. This article highlights some issues that should be addressed in any use of the DEMS data in developing a QRA for DEE.     

EEFSEC基因、染色体17q24和染色体11q13.2基因变异与前列腺癌的关联研究

目的探索EEFSEC基因(rs10934853,A)、染色体17q24区(rs1859962,T)和染色体11q13.2(rs7931342,T)的基因变异类型与前列腺癌患病发病风险的关联,分析这些基因型与前列腺癌患者临床特征的关系。方法采用病例对照研究设计,比较病例组中124例患者和对照组中138例正常对照者的EEFSEC基因(rs10934853,A)、染色体17q24区(rs1859962,T)和染色体11q13.2(rs7931342,T)等位基因和基因型频率的差异,并探讨各基因变异与患者的确诊年龄,BMI,Gleason评分,PSA浓度,肿瘤分期等临床特征之间的关联。结果 EEFSEC基因(rs10934853,A)、染色体17q24区(rs1859962,T)和染色体11q13.2(rs7931342,T)的基因型和等位基因在病例组和对照组中的频率分布差异均无统计学意义(P0.05),然而,EEFSEC基因(rs10934853,A)和染色体17q24区(rs1859962,T)存在更强的基因-基因协同的交互作用(P=0.0396,OR=1.722,95%CI=1.0244~2.8944);病例组基因型-表型观察指标关联分析表明,3个SNPs与PCa患者的年龄、Gleason评分、PSA浓度及烟酒均无关联(P0.05),然而,染色体17q24区(rs1859962,T)位点与食用蛋类有关(P=0.005)。结论 EEFSEC基因(rs10934853,A),17q24(rs1859962,T)和11q13.2(rs7931342,T)位点可能与我国北方人群前列腺癌的发病风险无关联,但是存在有基因之间增加PCa发病风险的协同效应。