论信用保险与保证保险之差异

信用保险乃是防范信用风险,保障债权人利益顺利实现的有效手段。信用保险定义应当从其保险合同性质、标的、被保险人和作用范围四个方面展开研究,进而总结出信用保险内涵,然后才能概括出信用保险应然的定义。信用保险是完全不同于保证保险的独立财产保险类型,二者在主体、性质和制度价值方面都有着本质的差异,所以信用保险不能为保证保险所包含。     

金融风险度量VaR与CVaR方法的比较研究及应用

风险价值(VaR)是近年来受到国际金融界的广泛支持和认可的一种度量金融风险的工具。文章指出了风险价值(VaR)模型两个重大的缺陷,并对它和条件风险价值(CVaR)金融风险度量模型进行了详细的介绍和对比分析,给出了它们的共同点和CVaR在投资组合应用中的优势,结合中国金融市场的实际情况,指出CvaR在中国金融市场中应用应注意的问题,对其应用前景提出了新的思路。     

基于模糊层次分析法的BPR风险评价

本文在分析企业在实施BPR过程中面临的风险因素的基础上,以层次分析法与模糊数学为基础,提出了一种实现业务流程再造风险评价的模型,为企业业务流程再造风险管理提供有效的支持。     

我国高校体育存在的风险及控制措施

高校体育作为一种促进学校和学生个人发展的利益活动,整个过程始终都伴随着风险。高校体育活动的最终结果将给学校和学生自身的发展带来风险损失还是风险增益,这是高校管理者应当思考的主要问题。通过对高校体育风险分析,对高校体育风险重新审视,提出相应的控制措施,为高校体育健康发展找到一定的理论支撑,为高校体育研究提供新的思维视角。     

风险社会中的青年心理问题与治理

随着世界突发事件的增多,不确定性的增强,我们的社会正在进入一个风险社会。风险社会是近代以来工业化社会发展的必然结果,是现代性潜在危机的彰显。文章在此大背景下对风险社会的特征进行解读,把风险的视野扩展到了心理学层面,考察了生态、经济、社会和政治等领域的风险对青年心理引发的影响,在此基础上,提出了国家治理、社会关注和信任再造等可能有效的治理方式。     

WDM网双故障的共享子通路保护算法

研究了WDM网中双故障导致的多链路失效问题,提出了一种共享子通路保护算法。共享子通路保护为每条业务请求计算一条最短的工作路由,并为工作路由上每段子通路各计算两条共享风险链路组分离且代价最小的保护路由。仿真表明,共享子通路保护不仅能有效地保护双故障导致的多链路失效,而且能在资源利用率(阻塞率)和保护切换时间之间进行性能折衷。     

关于我国家电业出口型企业规避汇率风险策略的思考

汇率变动及其相关问题是今年学界的一个研究热点，研究领域基本上集中在汇率变动对一国国际贸易的影响，关于汇率变动对某个特定行业影响的研究文献很少，特别是实证研究则更少。本文试图在这方面做些探索，通过分析家电业出口型企业面临的汇率风险以及汇率波动对企业的影响，探讨并总结相应的规避汇率风险的策略，希望能为我国出口型家电企业或者其他相关行业提供帮助。     

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Low- or Zero-Prevalence Countries: The Example of Norway

A predictive case-cohort model is applied to Norwegian data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the period 1980-2010. For each year, the BSE risk in cattle is estimated as the expected number of cases. The age distribution of expected cases as well as the relative impact of different challenges is estimated. The model consists of a simple, transparent, and practical deterministic spreadsheet calculation model, in which the following country-specific inputs are entered: (i) annual imports of live cattle and meat and bone meal, (ii) age distribution of native cattle, and (iii) estimated annual basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) for BSE. Results for Norway indicate that the highest risk of BSE cases was in 1989, when a total BSE risk of 0.13 cases per year was expected. After that date, the year-to-year decrease in risk ranged between 3% and 47%, except for a secondary peak in 1994 at 0.06 cases per year. The primary peak was almost entirely (99%) attributable to the importation of 11 cattle from the United Kingdom between 1982 and 1986. The secondary peak, in 1994, originated mainly from the recycling of the U.K. imported cattle (92%). In 2006, the remaining risk was 0.0003 cases per year, or 0.001 per million cows per year, with a maximal age-specific incidence of 0.03 cases per million per year in 10-year-old cattle. Only 15% of the cases were expected in imported cattle. The probability of having zero cases in Norway in 2006 was estimated to be 99.97%. The model and results are compared to previous risk assessments of Norway by the EU.     

国家助学贷款风险的法律监管

国家助学贷款实施七年来取得了显著成效,帮助了很多经济困难学生顺利完成学业。但随着实施范围的扩大和还款期的到来,助学贷款存在的问题也不断暴露出来,贷款风险已经严重阻碍了现行国家助学贷款政策的继续实施。介绍了我国对助学贷款风险进行控制和防范的相关措施,进而从助学贷款立法和诚信立法两方面阐述了对助学贷款风险的法律监管,从而保障我国助学贷款政策的顺利实施。     

An Adjustment Factor for Mode-of-Action Uncertainty with Dual-Mode Carcinogens: The Case of Naphthalene-Induced Nasal Tumors in Rats

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidelines for cancer risk assessment recognize that some chemical carcinogens may have a site-specific mode of action (MOA) involving mutation and cell-killing-induced hyperplasia. The guidelines recommend that for such dual MOA (DMOA) carcinogens, judgment should be used to compare and assess results using separate "linear" (genotoxic) versus "nonlinear" (nongenotoxic) approaches to low-level risk extrapolation. Because the guidelines allow this only when evidence supports reliable risk extrapolation using a validated mechanistic model, they effectively prevent addressing MOA uncertainty when data do not fully validate such a model but otherwise clearly support a DMOA. An adjustment-factor approach is proposed to address this gap, analogous to reference-dose procedures used for classic toxicity endpoints. By this method, even when a "nonlinear" toxicokinetic model cannot be fully validated, the effect of DMOA uncertainty on low-dose risk can be addressed. Application of the proposed approach was illustrated for the case of risk extrapolation from bioassay data on rat nasal tumors induced by chronic lifetime exposure to naphthalene. Bioassay data, toxicokinetic data, and pharmacokinetic analyses were determined to indicate that naphthalene is almost certainly a DMOA carcinogen. Plausibility bounds on rat-tumor-type-specific DMOA-related uncertainty were obtained using a mechanistic two-stage cancer risk model adapted to reflect the empirical link between genotoxic and cytotoxic effects of the most potent identified genotoxic naphthalene metabolites, 1,2- and 1,4-naphthoquinone. Bound-specific adjustment factors were then used to reduce naphthalene risk estimated by linear extrapolation (under the default genotoxic MOA assumption), to account for the DMOA exhibited by this compound.