风险社会中的青年心理问题与治理

随着世界突发事件的增多,不确定性的增强,我们的社会正在进入一个风险社会。风险社会是近代以来工业化社会发展的必然结果,是现代性潜在危机的彰显。文章在此大背景下对风险社会的特征进行解读,把风险的视野扩展到了心理学层面,考察了生态、经济、社会和政治等领域的风险对青年心理引发的影响,在此基础上,提出了国家治理、社会关注和信任再造等可能有效的治理方式。     

WDM网双故障的共享子通路保护算法

研究了WDM网中双故障导致的多链路失效问题,提出了一种共享子通路保护算法。共享子通路保护为每条业务请求计算一条最短的工作路由,并为工作路由上每段子通路各计算两条共享风险链路组分离且代价最小的保护路由。仿真表明,共享子通路保护不仅能有效地保护双故障导致的多链路失效,而且能在资源利用率(阻塞率)和保护切换时间之间进行性能折衷。     

关于我国家电业出口型企业规避汇率风险策略的思考

汇率变动及其相关问题是今年学界的一个研究热点，研究领域基本上集中在汇率变动对一国国际贸易的影响，关于汇率变动对某个特定行业影响的研究文献很少，特别是实证研究则更少。本文试图在这方面做些探索，通过分析家电业出口型企业面临的汇率风险以及汇率波动对企业的影响，探讨并总结相应的规避汇率风险的策略，希望能为我国出口型家电企业或者其他相关行业提供帮助。     

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Low- or Zero-Prevalence Countries: The Example of Norway

A predictive case-cohort model is applied to Norwegian data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the period 1980-2010. For each year, the BSE risk in cattle is estimated as the expected number of cases. The age distribution of expected cases as well as the relative impact of different challenges is estimated. The model consists of a simple, transparent, and practical deterministic spreadsheet calculation model, in which the following country-specific inputs are entered: (i) annual imports of live cattle and meat and bone meal, (ii) age distribution of native cattle, and (iii) estimated annual basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) for BSE. Results for Norway indicate that the highest risk of BSE cases was in 1989, when a total BSE risk of 0.13 cases per year was expected. After that date, the year-to-year decrease in risk ranged between 3% and 47%, except for a secondary peak in 1994 at 0.06 cases per year. The primary peak was almost entirely (99%) attributable to the importation of 11 cattle from the United Kingdom between 1982 and 1986. The secondary peak, in 1994, originated mainly from the recycling of the U.K. imported cattle (92%). In 2006, the remaining risk was 0.0003 cases per year, or 0.001 per million cows per year, with a maximal age-specific incidence of 0.03 cases per million per year in 10-year-old cattle. Only 15% of the cases were expected in imported cattle. The probability of having zero cases in Norway in 2006 was estimated to be 99.97%. The model and results are compared to previous risk assessments of Norway by the EU.     

国家助学贷款风险的法律监管

国家助学贷款实施七年来取得了显著成效,帮助了很多经济困难学生顺利完成学业。但随着实施范围的扩大和还款期的到来,助学贷款存在的问题也不断暴露出来,贷款风险已经严重阻碍了现行国家助学贷款政策的继续实施。介绍了我国对助学贷款风险进行控制和防范的相关措施,进而从助学贷款立法和诚信立法两方面阐述了对助学贷款风险的法律监管,从而保障我国助学贷款政策的顺利实施。     

An Adjustment Factor for Mode-of-Action Uncertainty with Dual-Mode Carcinogens: The Case of Naphthalene-Induced Nasal Tumors in Rats

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidelines for cancer risk assessment recognize that some chemical carcinogens may have a site-specific mode of action (MOA) involving mutation and cell-killing-induced hyperplasia. The guidelines recommend that for such dual MOA (DMOA) carcinogens, judgment should be used to compare and assess results using separate "linear" (genotoxic) versus "nonlinear" (nongenotoxic) approaches to low-level risk extrapolation. Because the guidelines allow this only when evidence supports reliable risk extrapolation using a validated mechanistic model, they effectively prevent addressing MOA uncertainty when data do not fully validate such a model but otherwise clearly support a DMOA. An adjustment-factor approach is proposed to address this gap, analogous to reference-dose procedures used for classic toxicity endpoints. By this method, even when a "nonlinear" toxicokinetic model cannot be fully validated, the effect of DMOA uncertainty on low-dose risk can be addressed. Application of the proposed approach was illustrated for the case of risk extrapolation from bioassay data on rat nasal tumors induced by chronic lifetime exposure to naphthalene. Bioassay data, toxicokinetic data, and pharmacokinetic analyses were determined to indicate that naphthalene is almost certainly a DMOA carcinogen. Plausibility bounds on rat-tumor-type-specific DMOA-related uncertainty were obtained using a mechanistic two-stage cancer risk model adapted to reflect the empirical link between genotoxic and cytotoxic effects of the most potent identified genotoxic naphthalene metabolites, 1,2- and 1,4-naphthoquinone. Bound-specific adjustment factors were then used to reduce naphthalene risk estimated by linear extrapolation (under the default genotoxic MOA assumption), to account for the DMOA exhibited by this compound.     

内部审计在企业风险管理中的作用

社会经济中不确定因素的增加导致企业风险的复杂化。由现代企业会计丑闻引发的企业风险管理近年来已成为备受关注的焦点问题。理论界和事务界已开始重视对风险导向内部审计,将其作为预防企业风险的必要手段研究,但其尚处于不成形的探讨阶段。本文着重分析了风险管理与内部审计的关系,并由此引出风险管理有效性的讨论。     

COSO新框架下企业内部控制与风险管理的思考

内部控制是全面风险管理的必要环节,其动力来自企业对风险的认识和管理。对此,我们必须尽快转换长期以来固化的观念和思维定式,努力构建体现全面风险管理的内部控制新机制,赋予内部控制新的内容。     

商业银行利率风险管理技术综述

一、引言(一)现实背景从2000年9月21日起,我国利率市场化改革进入实质性阶段,预计三年内完成。利率市场化是一场系统性的金融革命,必将对经济金融领域的方方面面产生重要影响。商业银行应积极采取措施,应对利率市场化将带来的一系列风险。近几年,我国发行了大量的国债和金融债,     

风险导向审计模式演进中的经济学释义

中国注册会计师协会“会协(2004)69号”文关于审计风险相关准则征求意见稿的推出,意味着协会“独立审计准则建设的重点是以现代风险导向审计思想为基础,拟订和修订审计风险准则,以强化会员在执业过程中的风险意识和质量意识,降低审计风险”这一行业建设战略思想进一步得到落实。但总的来讲,风险导向型审计在我国还处于萌芽状态,理论和实务上都不够成熟,如何科学应用风险导向审计方法,目前还是一片空白,这正是本文研究的出发点。