我国风险投资业面临的问题与对策

风险投资业的发展对我国未来经济的发展起着决定性的作用 ,目前我国风险投资业中存在的问题包括风险资本来源渠道单一、风险投资运营过程不规范、行业人才缺乏以及风险资本退出通道不畅等几个方面。通过对这些问题的分析 ,探讨具体的对策 ,对进一步发展我国的风险投资业具有一定的现实意义。     

Who Lives Near Coke Plants and Oil Refineries? An Exploration of the Environmental Inequity Hypothesis

Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations.The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.The authors are all affiliated with the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis     

Nonparametric estimation of the shape function in a Gamma process for degradation data

The author considers estimation under a Gamma process model for degradation data. The setting for degradation data is one in which n independent units, each with a Gamma process with a common shape function and scale parameter, are observed at several possibly different times. Covariates can be incorporated into the model by taking the scale parameter as a function of the covariates. The author proposes using the maximum pseudo‐likelihood method to estimate the unknown parameters. The method requires usage of the Pool Adjacent Violators Algorithm. Asymptotic properties, including consistency, convergence rate and asymptotic distribution, are established. Simulation studies are conducted to validate the method and its application is illustrated by using bridge beams data and carbon‐film resistors data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 102‐118; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

宽容是和谐社会民族心理素质的要素

宽容的民族心理素质以和谐文化为载体,它通过和谐文化的滋养与陶冶,逐渐走进每一个民族共同体之中,久而久之融进每一个民族成员的心理,成为构成民族心理的要素之一。     

ESTIMATION OF THE PARAMETER OF A POISSON DISTRIBUTION USING A LINEX LOSS FUNCTION

This paper considers estimation of the parameter of a Poisson distribution using Varian's (1975) asymmetric LINEX loss function L (δ) = b{exp(aδ) - aδ - 1}, where δ is the estimation error and b > 0, a 0. It is shown that for a < 0, the sample mean X¯ is admissible whereas for a > 0, X¯ is dominated by c*X¯, where c*= (n/a)log(1+a/n). Practical implications of this result are indicated. More general results, concerning the admissibility of estimators of the form cX¯+ d are also presented.     

从医疗过程的双重交易关系看中国社会医疗保险改革

医疗过程的双重交易关系——医疗机构与患者的医疗服务交易关系和医疗机构与药品生产代理商的医疗产品内部交易关系——决定了医疗服务提供方在医疗过程中的核心地位。所以,我国的社会医疗保险重点是要从约束供方着手,加之政府的责任,以保证社会医疗保险的顺利开展。     

Managing a Low-Incidence Risk: The Example of Toxic Shock Syndrome

This article demonstrates a methodology that allows individuals to reach a personal decision on the use of products which carry very small risks to health and life but also offer considerable benefits. A combination of the principles of dominance, extended dominance, and various methods of direct risk-benefit tradeoffs are shown to reduce the number of possible decisions regarding product use to the one optimal for the value structure of a particular individual. An historical examination of toxic-shock syndrome identifies tampons as a product with risks too small to warrant public intervention but too sizeable to be ignored. The methodology described here can be applied for all such products.     

项目风险分析与管理

本文在分析比较传统风险分析方法的基础上,提出了一个更为有效的风险分析方法,即“交叉分析-蒙特卡罗模拟”综合模型。并利用此模型对H集团的某技改投资项目进行了案例分析。在此基础上,提出了建立项目风险防范预警系统的风险管理模式。     

The impact of risk sharing on efficient decision

A group of risk-averse members must choose among monetary risks and payoff-sharing rules. Departure from the status quo requires unanimous consent. Such groups drill for oil, bail out nations, and make hostile takeover bids. Assume agreement on probabilities. As is well known, if all members have identically shaped HARA utility functions, efficient group act-choices follow another such function independently of payoff sharing. We show that all other groups inevitably have complex efficient behavior, accepting gambles among individually unacceptable lotteries in almost every status quo position. We also develop proper risk aversion for groups, and treat disagreement on probabilities.Support of the Associates of the Harvard Business School (Pratt) and the Business and Government and Energy and Environmental Policy Centers (Zeckhauser) is gratefully acknowledged. We received helpful comments from Scott Johnson, Mark Machina, and a referee. Jay Patel provided assistance beyond the call of collegiality.     

Dimensions of Risk

Eight major factors of risk comparisons are presented, and the conventional reduction of the risk concept to a unidimensional format is challenged. The similarities between risk issues and other issues of the social decision process are stressed. It is concluded that risk decisions are part of the general political process, and cannot be isolated from this. Expert assessments should be presented in a way that reflects the complexity of the subject matter, instead of repressing it.