论吸毒的心理演变及其矫治对策

吸毒人员一般都要经历一个从好奇、追求刺激、寻求解脱等尝试吸毒 ,到养成吸毒习惯 ,再到依赖毒品的心理演变过程。根据吸毒的心理演变规律 ,运用心理矫治技术 ,采取恰当的矫治措施 ,可以彻底消除吸毒人员对毒品的心理依赖 ,完全戒掉毒瘾。为此 ,在简要分析了吸毒的严重危害性和心理演变过程的基础上 ,着重探讨了对心瘾的矫治对策     

论"入世"后的职务犯罪及其防治

我国“入世” ,经济运行环境和行政管理模式将发生变化。关税减让、政务公开 ,减少了职务犯罪的机会 ;贸易自由、审批权集中 ,增大了职务犯罪的可能性。减少由“入世”给防治职务犯罪带来的消极影响 ,其根本措施仍是继续坚持“教育是基础 ,法制是保障 ,监督是关键”的方针 ,打防结合 ,标本兼治     

关于外汇期货套期保值比率的实证研究

最佳套期保值比率(OHR)的估计方法一直是金融工程理论研究的核心问题,从最开始的幼稚法到JSE法 以及随后的很多其他改进方法,保值效率都有不同程度的提高。使用包含误差修正结构的GARCH模型估计外汇 (澳大利亚元)期货的套期保值比率。通过效率比较,证实该模型所得到的套期保值比率比起传统方法都具有更好 的降低风险能力。     

An improved two-stage procedure to compare hazard curves

Qiu and Sheng has proposed a powerful and robust two-stage procedure to compare two hazard rate functions. In this paper we improve their method by using the Fisher test to combine the asymptotically independent p-values obtained from the two stages of their procedure. In addition, we extend the procedure to situations with multiple hazard rate functions. Our comprehensive simulation study shows that the proposed method has a good performance in terms of controlling the type I error rate and of detecting power. Three real data applications are considered for illustrating the use of the new method.     

Corrected maximum likelihood estimators in heteroscedastic symmetric nonlinear models

In this article, we derive general matrix formulae for second-order biases of maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) in a class of heteroscedastic symmetric nonlinear regression models, thus generalizing some results in the literature. This class of regression models includes all symmetric continuous distributions, and has a wide range of practical applications in various fields such as engineering, biology, medicine and economics, among others. The variety of distributions with different kurtosis coefficients than the normal may give more flexibility in the choice of an appropriate distribution, particularly to accommodate outlying and influential observations. We derive a joint iterative process for estimating the mean and dispersion parameters. We also present simulation studies for the biases of the MLEs.     

Numerical evaluation of tests based on different heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators

This article considers the issue of performing tests in linear heteroskedastic models when the test statistic employs a consistent variance estimator. Several different estimators are considered, namely: HC0, HC1, HC2, HC3, and their bias-adjusted versions. The numerical evaluation is performed using numerical integration methods; the Imhof algorithm is used to that end. The results show that bias-adjustment of variance estimators used to construct test statistics delivers more reliable tests when they are performed for the HC0 and HC1 estimators, but the same does not hold for the HC3 estimator. Overall, the most reliable test is the HC3-based one.     

证券分析师性别、盈余预测偏差与纠偏能力

证券分析师个人特征是其能力的重要表征.文章选取2007-2014年我国资本市场相关数据,研究了证券分析师的性别对盈余预测偏差的影响,以及盈余预测偏差的时间序列特征,实证结果显示:第一,整体上男性分析师的盈余预测偏差大于女性分析师;第二,男性分析师对于盈余预测偏差的纠正能力高于女性分析师;第三,随着对公司跟踪时间的增加,男性分析师的盈余预测偏差下降速度更快.研究结果说明,对于分析师跟踪时间较短的公司,女性分析师的盈余预测偏差较小,而对于受分析师长期跟踪的公司,男性分析师的盈余预测结果更准确.研究结论对投资者依据分析师性别判定其盈利预测准确性具有重要意义.     

武汉市固定资产投资与经济增长关系的实证分析

固定资产投资是经济增长的一个重要因素,对经济增长具有直接的拉动作用,同时对投资的调节也成为国家宏观调控的一个重要手段。以武汉市为例,选取了年固定资产投资与国内生产总值的数据进行协整分析,并建立了误差修正模型,得出了二者之间存在长期均衡关系。     

论对社区矫正对象的权利保障及其立法贯彻

社区矫正对象与监狱服刑人员一样,属于“犯罪(受刑)人”群体。当前的社区矫正试点工作,必须突出对矫正对象权利的保障。鉴于社区矫正立法的阙如,在中国未来的社区矫正法中,应明确肯认宪法的“国家尊重和保障人权”原则,并在规定社区矫正实施机构的管理职权和社区矫正对象的义务与权利等方面,要创设人道、科学、系统化的制度来保障社区矫正对象的法定权利。这既是落实宪法和有关国际人权规约的立法要求,也是革新社区矫正制度的根本价值所系。     

The effects of tact training on stereotypic vocalizations in children with autism

This study was a systematic extension of Karmali, Greer, Nuzzulo-Gomez, Ross, and Rivera-Valdes (2005) and Ahearn, Clark, MacDonald, and Chung (2007). We investigated the effects of a tact correction procedure on stereotypic vocalizations in 4 children diagnosed with autism who ranged in age from 6 to 16 years. Participants had limited vocal verbal repertoires and were primarily dependent on prompts for the emission of appropriate vocalizations. A multiple-baseline design across participants was used. Data were collected on instances of stereotypic vocalizations and independent tacts during baseline conditions and on instances of stereotypic vocalizations, independent tacts, and echoic-tacts during intervention. Procedural integrity and social validity data were also obtained. The results indicated a decrease in stereotypic vocalizations for 3 of the 4 participants and a slight increase in appropriate vocal verbal behavior (i.e., tacting) for all participants. The study provides support for the use of tact correction procedures to decrease stereotypic vocalizations and increase appropriate vocalizations in children with autism.