煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故单危险源风险度量模型研究

本文研究了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故危险源的分类,把危险源划分为人的不安全行为、机器设备不安全状态、环境不安全特征和管理缺陷四大类,并根据煤矿现场调查各类危险源的数据以及相应数学方法的特点,提出煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故人、机器设备(物)、环境、管理四类危险源的风险度量方法,在此基础上构建四类危险源的风险度量模型。研究表明,危险源的风险度量模型由风险发生的可能性、危险源重要度以及事故导致的损失构成;危险源风险发生的可能性,在具体应用中可以采用各类危险源的不可靠度、故障率等来衡量;危险源在事故中的重要度可以通过分析事故故障树种要素结构重要性获取。根据风险评价的结果,可以对危险源进行分级排序,从而为煤矿事故单危险源的控制提供依据。     

Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management.     

An Assessment of Change in Risk Perception and Optimistic Bias for Hurricanes Among Gulf Coast Residents

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two‐year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow‐up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t‐tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross‐lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross‐lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables’ effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness.     

A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers.     

充分利用网络技术全面提高会计控制质量

e7T中华财会网网络技术的发展对企业内部会计控制产生了深远的影响,文章从网络环境下内部会计控制呈现的新特点着手,分析了网络环境下内部会计控制系统所面临的风险,对存在的问题及其成因作了尝试性的探讨,提出了完善、加强内部会计控制的建议,以期达到提高网络环境下内部会计控制质量的目的。     

Independent attributes control chart for Markov-dependent processes

Statistical process monitoring (SPM) is a very efficient tool to maintain and to improve the quality of a product. In many industrial processes, end product has two or more attribute-type quality characteristics. Some of them are independent, but the observations are Markovian dependent. It is essential to develop a control chart for such situations. In this article, we develop an Independent Attributes Control Chart for Markov Dependent Processes based on error probabilities criterion under the assumption of one-step Markov dependency. Implementation of the chart is similar to that of Shewhart-type chart. Performance of the chart has been studied using probability of detecting shift criterion. A procedure to identify the attribute(s) responsible for out-of-control status of the process is given.     

Children in immediate danger: Emergency removals in Finnish and Irish child protection

This paper presents a qualitative analysis of front‐line practices regarding emergency removals in Finnish and Irish child protection. It examines how the responses to children's immediate danger are framed by legislation and how front‐line practitioners assess the child's situation and make emergency placement decisions. The data consist of interviews with 16 Irish and 33 Finnish social workers. These child welfare protection systems respond differently to a task that appears to be similar. The Irish team‐based practice rests on the social workers' shared assessment of the child's needs, and the formal decision is made by the courts (or police officers at night‐time); and the Finnish practice involves only one single social worker who makes both the assessment and the removal decision. The Irish system is tightly time regulated, whereas the Finnish system provides a more flexible time frame. Both approaches put a lot of stress on social workers' practice, which also includes creative workarounds (e.g., “planned emergency removals” in Finland). Future research will need to explore these features from the point of view of a child's right to protection.     

You Catch More Flies With Honey: Sex Work,Violence, and Masculinity on the Streets

Violence among inner‐city men is a pressing social concern, and the central focus of much academic research. Many frame it as a phenomenon that certain men perpetuate—those who inhabit disadvantaged, impoverished communities—and argue it is linked to performances of “street” masculinity. In this article, I examine male street‐based sex workers’ willingness to become embroiled in violent exchanges. In a departure from theoretical predictions, my findings reveal these men expend considerable effort to remain nonviolent with others immersed in the sex trade, a decision based upon their desire for the acquisition of capital as well as their calculation of risks. In doing so, they construct and perform a nuanced version of masculinity, which I call pacifist masculinity. Few studies analyze peaceful and conciliatory interactions among men in these contexts, an absence that only serves to reify assumptions about rampant hostility and aggression. I draw on interviews with 19 men involved in street prostitution in Chicago in 2012. This article contributes to a clearer understanding of male–male violence in high‐risk environments, examines the prominent factors that inform decisions to assault others, and explores how such actions challenge hegemonic masculinity.     

The relationship between burnout and risk-taking in workplace decision-making and decision-making style

This study aimed to investigate what decision-making styles might be exhibited by employees who experience burnout. Using a Work Risk Inventory (WRI), developed for this study, which included generic workplace scenarios, it was also explored whether such employees take relatively more risky decisions. Risk was conceptualised as the adoption of decisions that threaten one’s reputation at work, job performance and job security. The mediating effect of the likelihood and seriousness of the consequences of the worst that could happen in each given scenario on the relationships between dimensions of burnout and risk-taking was also tested. A total of 262 employees in various occupations completed an online survey, including measures on burnout, decision-making styles and the WRI. As predicted, dimensions of burnout – exhaustion, cynicism and professional inefficacy – correlated significantly with avoidant decision-making and negatively with rational decision-making. The seriousness of the consequences of the worst-case scenario occurring mediated the relationship between professional inefficacy and risk-taking. In the context of identifying mechanisms by which burnout leads to risky decision-making, the findings suggest that employees’ sense of professional inefficacy determines their risky decision-making. The contribution to theory and implications for practice are discussed.     

Social Development Quartet: Emotion Socialization in the Context of Psychopathology and Risk

An introduction is provided to this Social Development Quartet in which the articles focus on parent emotion socialization in the context of psychopathology and risk. In two articles, the samples of children and/or adolescents have a psychiatric diagnosis [oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) or depressive disorder]. The other two articles feature samples in which children and families have experienced serious risks [exposure to inter‐parental violence (IPV) or maternal incarceration]. The articles in this Social Development Quartet extend our knowledge of the impact of parental emotion socialization practices to contexts in which children and parents experience higher than normative risks. The work reported in these articles builds upon research on emotion socialization in normative contexts, illustrating the buffering effects of supportive parenting as well as its limits.