Pollutant Ground Concentrations of Nonneutrally Buoyant Particles

A methodology is suggested for the estimation of the mass density and the cumulative ground deposition of a nonvolatile, nonneutrally buoyant, air pollutant (liquid or solid) released from a polluted column (following an explosion caused during routine operation in, e.g., the chemical industry or due to any kind of hostile act) and deposited on the ground via gravitational settling. In many cases, the deposited mass due to gravitational settling constitutes a significant fraction of the original inventory released from the source. Implementation of the methodology in preliminary risk assessments can serve as an efficient tool for emergency planning for both immediate and long‐term measures such as evacuation and decontamination. The methodology considers, inter alia, an estimation of the critical particle diameter, particle size, and mass distributions along the polluted column. This methodology was developed to apply in rural regions since proper application of relevant meteorological input data can be accomplished mainly for such areas.     

An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.     

现代社会转型与法治政府的变革路径

伴随着中国改革开放的进程,转型成为社会变迁的主题和基本特征。与此相应的却是,改革日益呈现出一种“锁定”的状态。在社会转型时期出现的诸多根本性问题,并不能用过渡性的办法来解决。在国家和法律的现代化进程中,特别是构建法治政府的进程中,政府不能再像过去那样,一味运用相机决策和政策调整来处理社会利益矛盾,不能再对不同群体在基本权利上区别对待。同样,在工农、城乡、区域乃至人与自然生态之间,要实现统筹协调发展的目标,更需要加强普遍性的努力,这种普遍性努力以法治和体现法治精神的整体性政策为特征。     

Evaluation of Inhaled Versus Deposited Dose Using the Exponential Dose‐Response Model for Inhalational Anthrax in Nonhuman Primate,Rabbit, and Guinea Pig

The application of the exponential model is extended by the inclusion of new nonhuman primate (NHP), rabbit, and guinea pig dose‐lethality data for inhalation anthrax. Because deposition is a critical step in the initiation of inhalation anthrax, inhaled doses may not provide the most accurate cross‐species comparison. For this reason, species‐specific deposition factors were derived to translate inhaled dose to deposited dose. Four NHP, three rabbit, and two guinea pig data sets were utilized. Results from species‐specific pooling analysis suggested all four NHP data sets could be pooled into a single NHP data set, which was also true for the rabbit and guinea pig data sets. The three species‐specific pooled data sets could not be combined into a single generic mammalian data set. For inhaled dose, NHPs were the most sensitive (relative lowest LD₅₀) species and rabbits the least. Improved inhaled LD₅₀s proposed for use in risk assessment are 50,600, 102,600, and 70,800 inhaled spores for NHP, rabbit, and guinea pig, respectively. Lung deposition factors were estimated for each species using published deposition data from Bacillus spore exposures, particle deposition studies, and computer modeling. Deposition was estimated at 22%, 9%, and 30% of the inhaled dose for NHP, rabbit, and guinea pig, respectively. When the inhaled dose was adjusted to reflect deposited dose, the rabbit animal model appears the most sensitive with the guinea pig the least sensitive species.     

Minimization of passenger takeoff and landing risk in offshore helicopter transportation: Models,approaches and analysis

Offshore petroleum industry uses helicopters to transport the employees to and from installations. Takeoff and landing represent a substantial part of the flight risks for passengers. In this paper, we propose and analyze approaches to create a safe flight schedule to perform pickup of employees by several independent flights. Two scenarios are considered. Under the non-split scenario, exactly one visit is allowed to each installation. Under the split scenario, the pickup demand of an installation can be split between several flights. Interesting links between our problem and other problems of combinatorial optimization, e.g., parallel machine scheduling and bin-packing are established. We provide worst-case analysis of the performance of some of our algorithms and report the results of computational experiments conducted on randomly generated instances based on the real sets of installations in the oil fields on the Norwegian continental shelf. This paper is the first attempt to handle takeoff and landing risk in a flight schedule that consists of several flights and lays ground for the study on more advanced and practically relevant models.     

Sensitivity Analysis Using Risk Measures

In a quantitative model with uncertain inputs, the uncertainty of the output can be summarized by a risk measure. We propose a sensitivity analysis method based on derivatives of the output risk measure, in the direction of model inputs. This produces a global sensitivity measure, explicitly linking sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We focus on the case of distortion risk measures, defined as weighted averages of output percentiles, and prove a representation of the sensitivity measure that can be evaluated on a Monte Carlo sample, as a weighted average of gradients over the input space. When the analytical model is unknown or hard to work with, nonparametric techniques are used for gradient estimation. This process is demonstrated through the example of a nonlinear insurance loss model. Furthermore, the proposed framework is extended in order to measure sensitivity to constant model parameters, uncertain statistical parameters, and random factors driving dependence between model inputs.     

Penny for Your Thoughts: Beggars and the Exercise of Morality in Daily Life1

Urban sociology has tended to study interactions between passersby and “street persons” with an emphasis on the ways street persons become bothersome, harassing, or dangerous. This article moves away from the focus on the ways interactions in public go awry and focuses on how individuals account for the mundane, everyday exchanges they have with strangers who seek their help. Based on interview data (N = 31) and qualitative analysis of data from an Internet survey (N = 110), this article suggests that the presence of beggars does not inherently symbolize urban decay to passersby and does not necessarily elicit anxiety, but instead provides a valuable texture of urban life. Further, the article argues that individuals, when justifying their responses to requests for help from needy persons (beggars) in urban spaces, use a variety of cultural strategies to maintain their perception of themselves as moral persons, both when they choose to help and when they refuse. Drawing from these findings, the article suggests that urban sociology and the sociology of risk would benefit from sensitizing their studies of public interactions to the diverse meanings individuals assign to them, rather than presupposing annoyance, anxiety, or fear as their predominant characteristic.     

Quantile Regression for Location‐Scale Time Series Models with Conditional Heteroscedasticity

This paper considers quantile regression for a wide class of time series models including autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) models with asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity errors. The classical mean‐variance models are reinterpreted as conditional location‐scale models so that the quantile regression method can be naturally geared into the considered models. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the quantile regression estimator is established in location‐scale time series models under mild conditions. In the application of this result to ARMA‐generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, more primitive conditions are deduced to obtain the asymptotic properties. For illustration, a simulation study and a real data analysis are provided.     

Changes in risky gambling prevalence among a New Zealand population cohort

Evidence suggests that problem gambling is an unstable state where gamblers move into and out of risk over time. This article looks at longitudinal changes in risky gambling and the factors associated with an increased risk (measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index [PGSI]) in the current New Zealand context, which has experienced a doubling of the electronic gaming machine (EGM) market over the last two decades. Respondents from a nationally representative baseline sample (n = 2672) were recontacted two years later to assess changes in gambling behaviours. Among the 901 respondents reached at follow-up, average gambling risk increased over time, and the prevalence of those who had at least some level of gambling risk (i.e. low-risk or greater) more than doubled (from 4.7% to 12.4%). The majority (80.2%) of those who were at risk at follow-up had not been at risk at baseline. Multivariate linear regression analyses show that the predictors of low to moderate increased risk include Pacific ethnicity; high neighbourhood deprivation status; baseline frequent, continuous gambler type; baseline PGSI status; and playing EGMs. These findings highlight the need to develop theories of gambling addiction trajectories and to identify the earliest point along the trajectory where public health interventions should occur.     

Biosecurity Policy and the Use of Geospatial Predictive Tools to Address Invasive Plants: Updating the Risk Analysis Toolbox

International and national biosecurity policies consider risk assessment a critical component of overall plant health risk analysis. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, the International Plant Protection Convention, and the Convention on Biological Diversity all provide guidelines and recommendations on how to use risk assessment. This article discusses how these instruments address risk assessment, and makes recommendations on how the risk assessment process needs to incorporate current geospatial predictive science and geographic information systems into the plant health biosecurity risk analysis toolbox.