从超越走向世俗——论西方审美现代性的媚俗面相

西方现代性与西方审美现代性存在着一致性和冲突。随着西方现代性的到来,反传统、宗教的衰落日益普遍,西方审美现代性逐渐出现,现代审美经验得以确立。反传统、宗教的衰落和现代审美经验导致了西方审美现代性的媚俗面相,这里的媚俗主要指有意迎合大众审美的特征。西方审美现代性的媚俗面相主要表现在审美的大众化、审美的商品化,以及审美创新与文艺流派中的媚俗性。     

新时期我国农民工若干基本特点探析

新时期,我国农民工群体在政治、经济、文化和社会等基本权益保障方面存在的现实问题日益突出.随着改革开放步伐的不断深入与发展,在新形势下我国农民工群体在数量规模、流动就业、人口结构、收入消费、群体分层分化与利益诉求差异、融入城市与市民化等方面日益凸显其基本特点.只有深入、客观分析新时期我国农民工数量规模、流动就业、人口结构、婚育状况、群体分层分化与利益诉求差异,以及农民工融入城镇和市民化等基本特点,才能够多角度、科学全面探析农民工基本权益保障缺失的各种原因及其完善政策与建议.     

关于野外实习的规范与管理

目前国内的高等学校中对加强实践性环节的教学研究都相当重视。野外实习是高校某些专业教学的重要实践性环节，但对野外实习的教学管理，目前尚无章可循。本文在多年指导野外实习的基础上，根据野外实习的特点和教学大纲的要求，制定了野外实习的轮廓草案，并经过６年的试验，对指导野外实习和实行规范化、科学化、制度化的管理产生了较好的效果     

Spatial Regression Models for Demographic Analysis

While spatial data analysis has received increasing attention in demographic studies, it remains a difficult subject to learn for practitioners due to its complexity and various unresolved issues. Here we give a practical guide to spatial demographic analysis, with a focus on the use of spatial regression models. We first summarize spatially explicit and implicit theories of population dynamics. We then describe basic concepts in exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial regression modeling through an illustration of population change in the 1990s at the minor civil division level in the state of Wisconsin. We also review spatial regression models including spatial lag models, spatial error models, and spatial autoregressive moving average models and use these models for analyzing the data example. We finally suggest opportunities and directions for future research on spatial demographic theories and practice.

孟浩然仕进思想新论

孟浩然仕进思想新论@宁松夫$襄樊学院中文系!湖北襄樊441003~~~~~~     

University student enrollment forecasts by analysis structural ratios using ARIMA-methods

Summary Forecasts for the number of students in Germany are conducted by the Kultusministerkonferenz. They use a transition model which does not allow for prediction intervals and therefore lack a measure of uncertainty of the forecast. Since the uncertainty is high for such forecasts, this lack is of importance. In this paper, structural ratios, relating the number of university students to the population of the same age, are analyzed and forescasted using ARIMA-models with outliers. Multiplying these ratios with official population forecasts for Germany provides the future number of students, additionally giving prediction intervals. This number will increase from 1.94 million in 2002 to 2.35 million in 2015. The uncertainty of the forecast is high; the forecast interval in 2015 will range between 1.72 and 2.98 million at a 95% confidence level. Supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG). We are grateful to an anonymous referee for some helpful comments.     

The Possible Effects of Child Survival on Women's Ages at First Union and Childbirth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Improvements in childsurvival may lead to lower fertility throughseveral pathways. To date, most studies havefocused on the physiological and replacementeffects, whose impacts are known to be modestin size. Few have examined the potentially moreimportant insurance effect on fertility withinunion, and almost none have considered thepossible relationship between child mortalityand marriage, which could also grow out of aninsurance strategy. In this study, we use datafrom 21 sub-Saharan African countries to assessthe relationship between child mortality andyoung women's ages at first marriage andchildbirth. The results show that lower levelsof mortality are strongly associated with latermarriages and first births, even aftercontrolling for the effects of a large numberof other variables. The implications of thefindings are discussed and alternativeexplanations for this relationship arepresented.     

论间接侵犯商业秘密罪的主观方面

间接侵犯商业秘密罪的主观方面为“明知或者应知”,根据词义理解,应包括故意和过失,但将“应知”理解为过失显然有不合理之处,对此学者也有不同观点。本文通过对立法本意的揣测和对“应知”的深层理解,主张应对“应知”作合理解释,不应包括过失。     

我国人口转变地区差异及其与社会经济发展的相关分析

我国的人口转变已经完成 ,但是地区差异颇大。通过对各省份 1949— 1999年人口自然变动系列资料的聚类分析 ,可以把我国的人口转变类型划分为都市、东部、中部、西部和西藏 5种模式 ,各地区人口转变过程及其特点与其社会经济发展水平高度相关     

Promoting a higher retirement age: A prospect‐theoretical approach

Demographic ageing and the necessity of raising the retirement age is one of the most frequently debated topics among European welfare policy experts. This study used prospect theory as developed in behavioural economics to explain public attitudes towards pension reforms. It argues that, in line with prospect theory, negative incentives are more useful in changing people's attitudes in favour of a higher statutory retirement age than are positive incentives. Therefore, in the case of increasing life expectancy, defined‐contribution schemes that apply actuarial formulae linking the level of starting monthly pension benefits to life expectancy are more useful in promoting a higher retirement age than conventional defined‐benefit schemes, which typically do not forge an automatic connection between longevity and starting pensions. The implications of prospect theory for attitudes towards pension reforms were tested using Eurobarometer survey data collected in 2004 and 2009 in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia.