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排序方式: 共有614条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
51.
Lynn Hempel 《Risk analysis》2011,31(7):1107-1119
We investigate the relationship between exposure to Hurricanes Katrina and/or Rita and mental health resilience by vulnerability status, with particular focus on the mental health outcomes of single mothers versus the general public. We advance a measurable notion of mental health resilience to disaster events. We also calculate the economic costs of poor mental health days added by natural disaster exposure. Negative binomial analyses show that hurricane exposure increases the expected count of poor mental health days for all persons by 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.44–31.14%), and by 71.88% (95% CI, 39.48–211.82%) for single females with children. Monthly time‐series show that single mothers have lower event resilience, experiencing higher added mental stress. Results also show that the count of poor mental health days is sensitive to hurricane intensity, increasing by a factor of 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02–1.10) for every billion (U.S.$) dollars of damage added for all exposed persons, and by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI, 1.03–1.14) for single mothers. We estimate that single mothers, as a group, suffered over $130 million in productivity loss from added postdisaster stress and disability. Results illustrate the measurability of mental health resilience as a two‐dimensional concept of resistance capacity and recovery time. Overall, we show that natural disasters regressively tax disadvantaged population strata. 相似文献
52.
刘兴诗 《成都理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2010,18(1):1-5
电影《2012》演绎的板块快速移动,引起世界范围内的毁灭性灾难其实是不科学的。古今所谓“世界末日”观念,均无科学依据。全新世以来,古气候发展有四个主要阶段,并具有2500-3000年的周期,先后分别是前北方期一北方期、大西洋期(黄金时代)、亚北方期(灾变时代)、亚大西洋期(新黄金时代)。目前,亚大西洋期接近结束,一个新灾变时代即将到来,并将对世界气候环境造成不可估量的重大影响。我国东部季风环流势必遭受干扰,西部干燥化将加强。 相似文献
53.
E. Michel‐Kerjan S. Hochrainer‐Stigler H. Kunreuther J. Linnerooth‐Bayer R. Mechler R. Muir‐Wood N. Ranger P. Vaziri M. Young 《Risk analysis》2013,33(6):984-999
Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low‐ and middle‐income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model‐based cost‐benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries. 相似文献
54.
胡卫 《贵州大学学报(社会科学版)》2009,27(4):88-92,131
重大自然灾害在合同法上被界定为不可抗力,作为法定的免责事由而免除当事人合同不履行的法律责任。但司法实践中却可能存在诸多的因素导致合同不履行,重大自然灾害可能不是唯一的合同不履行的原因,故在重大自然灾害背景下探讨重大自然灾害与合同不履行之间的原因力关系,对司法实践中处理与重大自然灾害有关的合同纠纷案件具有重要的现实意义。 相似文献
55.
杨伟李彤 《电子科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2013,(5):14-19
使用探索性案例研究方法,对台风莫拉克在浙江的演化过程进行分析。研究发现,非常规灾害事件的情景演化过程与生物体的生长过程具有诸多相似之处,同时又具有明显的概率性。在案例研究基础上,进一步构建数学模型,给出了概率性生长模式的形式化表达,也为仿真模拟和计算实验提供了理论基础。 相似文献
56.
应小萍 《哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2012,(6):8-14
从"生物—心理—社会"的视角全面地探讨灾难情境下的人们的社会心态变化规律及其特点有一定的学术价值。生物学视角的研究成果表明,灾难后的心理行为变化源于人类前额叶的高级认知控制功能受到应激影响的条件下转变为由杏仁核所主导的快速情绪反应模式。心理学视角的研究分析认为,灾难后的心理行为变化可看做进化心理学和精神分析理论双重意义上的心理原始化过程。社会文化视角的分析认为,灾难后的心理行为变化可看做一种社会文化心态模式从"平时状态"向"灾难应急模式"的转换。这三个视角的研究分析既有内在本质的联系,也遵循各自不同的逻辑,只有将这三个视角结合起来考虑,我们才能获得对于灾难后社会心态变化的全面认识。 相似文献
57.
A Bayesian compound Poisson benefit-risk model is described in this paper, and used to evaluate recent revisions to the South Florida Building Code (SFBC). The model accounts for natural variability in hurricane frequency and severity, and uncertainty in the effectiveness of the revised code. Ranges of residential growth rate, code effectiveness, construction cost increase, and planning period length are assumed, to show the ranges of cost-to-performance ratio within which the code will make sense economically. The expected cost of residential hurricane damage over 50 years for ten South Florida counties assuming continuation of previous building practices was $93 billion, equivalent to the residential damage of 5.2 Andrews. Assuming a reduction in the growth of damageable housing in South Florida from 5.5% to 2% as a result of code revision, estimated damages under the new code were $45 billion. At a per-house construction cost increase of 5%, the probability of at least recovering the estimated $40 billion cost of the specified wind-resistant construction was estimated to be 47%. Expected return on investment was estimated at $7 billion over 50 years. The expected return lies between a $44 billion loss and a $47 billion gain, when growth in damageable housing is allowed to range from 1% to 4% and construction cost increases are assumed to lie between 3% and 8%. Actual monetary return for a 5% cost increase and 2% growth in damageable housing ranges from a $20 billion loss to a $100 billion gain with 95% probability, as a result of weather variability alone. Results support SFBC revisions on solely economic grounds, a conclusion strengthened considerably in light of potentially avoided deaths and hurricane traumas. The model represents one approach to evaluating economic aspects of the sustainability of new technological measures on the basis of available information. 相似文献
58.
余波 《西南科技大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2004,21(1):45-48
传统的抗旱技术立足于从水资源开发的角度来研究抗旱避灾,但基本上是属于劳动力密集型的“靠天救灾”,技术的含量较少。本文从农业信息化的角度出发,较为全面地阐述了四川农业干旱的状况、信息化在四川农业抗旱减灾中的作用、四川农业信息化的现状、四川农业抗旱减灾信息化建设的思路,以及正确处理信息化经营与传统抗旱技术的关系等方面的问题。 相似文献
59.
王晖 《湖南科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2013,16(6):105-108
汶川大地震灾后恢复重建的实践表明,我国重大自然灾害社会援助虽然取得了一定的成效,但仍存在诸多问题,如缺乏完善的社会捐赠机制、社会组织的发展遭遇制度和资源等多重制约,志愿者权益缺乏保护,专业技能不足等。针对这些不足,探讨社会援助的慈善机制、激励机制、协同机制的构建路径,以期完善重大自然灾害社会援助机制,促进社会健康稳定发展。 相似文献
60.
灾荒史研究的若干问题 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
杨鹏程 《湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2000,24(5):61-64
以问答形式,探讨灾荒史研究的几个理论问题地方政府与中央政府的关系;关于湖南改赈为贷的问题;传统社会与近代社会荒政的差异;政府和民间人士在赈灾活动中的地位。 相似文献