净现值决策法和期权决策法的比较研究

本文首先介绍了传统的投资决策方法即净现值法的基本原理 ,给出了应用实例 ;然后分析了期权投资决策法的基本原理、方法及应用实例 ;最后对这两种不同的投资决策方法进行了归纳总结。     

论我国商业银行资产负债利率风险管理

认为利率风险管理是我国商业银行资产负债管理的核心内容之一 ,在此基础上考察了我国利率变化状况 ,探讨了利率风险的衡量方法 ,并提出了加强利率灵敏性管理 ,化解利率风险的现实举措     

Bernstein插值过程的同时逼近

考虑了Bernstein插值过程的同时逼近问题,得到了逼近阶的估计.     

Characterizations of generalized mixtures of geometric and exponential distributions based on upper record values

Let X _{U (1)} < X _{U (2)} < … < X _{U ( n )} < … be the sequence of the upper record values from a population with common distribution function F. In this paper, we first give a theorem to characterize the generalized mixtures of geometric distribution by the relation between E[(X _{U ( n +1)}–X _{U ( n )})²|X _{U ( n )} = x] and the function of the failure rate of the distribution, for any positive integer n. Secondly, we also use the same relation to characterize the generalized mixtures of exponential distribution. The characterizing relations were motivated by the work of Balakrishnan and Balasubramanian (1995). Received: March 31, 1999; revised version: November 22, 1999     

2007年中国股市与利率关系的研究

文章对2007年央行连续加息后,中国股市发生的变化进行了实证研究。根据经济学的一般规律,存款准备金率、利率的上调会导致股市的下跌,但是在中国2007年不到一年的时间里,已经经历了七次存款准备金率的上调和五次利率的上调,如此频繁的出台货币政策,股市却没有出现预期的下跌。针对这一现象进行了研究,分析这一经济学一般规律在中国不适用的原因,并对这一规律进行了补充修正。      

Overcoming the zero interest-rate bound: A quantitative prescription

Using a macro-econometric model we provide a quantitative estimate of the cash transfer or tax cut that would achieve recovery from a severe recession when the central bank is unable to achieve full recovery because of the zero bound. We introduce an automatic transfer and simulate its triggering in the severe recession. We find that an automatic transfer that averages 3% of quarterly GDP repeated four times (quarterly) reduces the unemployment rate an additional full percentage point and thereby completes the recovery. We recommend that legislatures enact an automatic counter-cyclical fiscal policy that will assure adequate stimulus without generating a long-term debt problem.     

交强险的经营结果和费率结构分析

交强险自2006年7月1日实施以来,引起了社会各界的广泛关注,尤其是对交强险费率的讨论,一直没有间断。本文应用交强险第一个业务年度的财务数据,对交强险在各个地区和各个保险公司的经营结果进行了分析,指出了交强险费率结构存在的主要问题,即保险费率在不同地区和不同车辆类型之间不够公平,费率浮动办法尚存缺陷,并借鉴发达国家汽车强制保险的经验,提出了完善我国交强险费率结构的建议。     

Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Estimation of a Quantile Regression Model

We consider nonparametric estimation of a regression function that is identified by requiring a specified quantile of the regression “error” conditional on an instrumental variable to be zero. The resulting estimating equation is a nonlinear integral equation of the first kind, which generates an ill‐posed inverse problem. The integral operator and distribution of the instrumental variable are unknown and must be estimated nonparametrically. We show that the estimator is mean‐square consistent, derive its rate of convergence in probability, and give conditions under which this rate is optimal in a minimax sense. The results of Monte Carlo experiments show that the estimator behaves well in finite samples.     

提高1个百分点的消费率可以使第三产业比重上升0．26个百分点

摘　　要:理论与实践都表明,提高消费率会使第三产业比重上升。本文根据最新编制的全国投入产出表,具体测算出一个因果关系,即提高1个百分点的消费率可以使第三产业比重上升0．26个百分点。此外,本文还得出其他几个重要结论,包括：影响第三产业比重的因素除了消费率外,还有产业分工、消费结构、投资结构等;与日本相比．我国在生产消耗和最终消费中对第三产业需求比例明显偏低;但投资中对第三产业的需求比例高于日本水平;不能简单地把第三产业比重的高低作为衡量一个国家或地区产业结构合理与否的标准。     

Measuring tax distortions with neutrality-based effective tax rates

In public economics, effective tax rates (ETRs) are often used to measure the combined effects of tax rates, tax bases, and the time effect of taxation. Until now, the modelling of comparable figures for revealing tax effects and tax-induced distortions is not solved satisfactorily. This paper derives an ETR approach based on neutral tax systems. In contrast to traditional measures of ETRs, the neutrality-based ETR discloses preferential or discriminatory taxation of investments regardless of their pre-tax rate of return. Moreover, comparing different ETRs exposes the degree of tax-induced investment distortions.