资本成本率计算方法解析

常用的资本成本率计算公式既有其合理性 ,又存在一些缺陷。本文通过对常用资本成本率计算方法以及几种具有代表性的新观点的分析 ,探讨了资本成本率计算方法中的一些问题 ,并利用折现模型 ,提出资本成本率计算方法的改进思路。     

Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction

In this century a number of events could extinguish humanity. The probability of these events may be very low, but the expected value of preventing them could be high, as it represents the value of all future human lives. We review the challenges to studying human extinction risks and, by way of example, estimate the cost effectiveness of preventing extinction-level asteroid impacts.     

Discounting and the evaluation of lifesaving programs

The evaluation of lifesaving programs whose benefits extend into the future involves two discounting issues. The intragenerational discounting problem is how to express, in age-j dollars, reductions in an individual's conditional probability of dying at some future age k. Having discounted future lifesaving benefits to the beginning of each individual's life, one is faced with the problem of discounting these benefits to the present—the intergenerational discounting problem. We discuss both problems from the perspectives of cost-benefit and costeffectiveness analyses. These principles are then applied to lifesaving programs that involve a latency period.The authors are, respectively, Associate Professor of Economics, Univesity of Maryland and Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future; and Senior Fellow and Vice President, Resources for the Future. We thank the National Science Foundation for their support under grant DIR-8711083.     

全球气候变化与中国的应对

全球气候变化是指世界范围内温度的上升和风暴活动的增加等,是气候平均状态统计学意义上的巨大改变或者持续较长一段时间的气候变动趋势。全球气候变化的解决需要从气候问题全球公共物品特征的基础上出发,从各国间签署的国际环境协议上入手,并通过有效的国际合作和设置灵活有效的经济机制来落实。从历史和现实两个角度来把握不同国家在保护全球环境国际行动中的责任和作用,既是解决气候问题共同但有区别责任国际原则的本质要求,也是推进目前陷入泥沼的多边气候谈判的关键所在,同时也是包括中国在内的广大发展中国家制订应对全球气候变化政策的依据。为此,中国应根据国情承担相应的国际义务,并结合气候变化产生的历史原因和现实特点,制订出有针对性的应对气候变化的国家方案,通过发展来解决发展中出现的问题。     

Discounting Across Generations: Necessary, not Suspect

Periodically, ethical objections are raised against the practice of discounting for future effects. Concerns about the potential effects on future generations from long-term nuclear waste disposal and global climate change have caused these ethical objections to recur. This article rebuts the various ethical objections to future discounting on practical, ethical, and analytic grounds. Discounting for future effects is a ubiquitous practice that cannot be practically prevented. In the event that public policy would dictate against future discounting in public decisions, such a constraint could never be successfully imposed on markets. Market values will always reflect the full, discounted streams of future effects even if governments prohibited the practice among individuals. Ethically, there is no basis for choosing an upper-bound time horizon beyond which discounting should be rejected. Any proposed horizon is arbitrary and has no obvious foundation. All decisions are fundamentally irreversible, so opponents of future discounting also must define a degree of irreversibility beyond which normal discounting should not apply, and defend on ethical grounds the basis for this demarcation. This task is further complicated by the likelihood that choices are rarely, if ever, as irreversible as opponents suggest. Typical examples given to prove future discounting is inappropriate overstate the degree of irreversibility actually present and understate subsequent opportunities for modifications. Finally, opposition to distant-future discounting on the ground that burdens are shifted to future generations must face the fact that such shifts are characteristic of intergenerational transfers now practiced widely and with great public support.     

Imperfect information processing in sequential bargaining games with present biased preferences

This paper studies an alternating-offers bargaining game between a time-consistent player and a time-inconsistent player who processes information on future self-preferences imperfectly. Time-inconsistency and information processing are modeled by using cognitive and mood state approaches, respectively. This model structure allows for the learning of the partially naive time-inconsistent agent. The results characterize the relationship among the level of naivete, the level of learning probability and the equilibrium. We find critical values of the model parameters that specify whether the agreement is delayed and characterize the probabilistic nature of the agreement. In addition, comparative static results are reported with respect to time preferences.     

企业兼并中如何估价目标公司

企业兼并谈判的焦点是兼并价格,而确定兼并价格的主要依据是目标公司的价值。本文介绍了三种估算目标公司价值的方法:现金流量折现法,市场价值法和重置成本法,对每种方法进行了理论分析和比较,并阐述了如何在实务中应用,以期能为兼并双方在价格的谈判中提供科学的数理依据。     

Dispositional Factors Affecting Choices Surrounding the Purchase of Insurance and the Taking of Mitigating Measures Against Flooding

This research investigated the role of dispositional factors in decisions to purchase insurance and to take mitigating measures against flooding. Two dispositional factors—risk aversion in the domain of losses and time discounting rate—were found to be predictors of the decision to acquire flood insurance. The observation of a relationship between experiment-based risk attitudes and the decision to insure oneself against flooding replicates a finding of Petrolia et al. The finding that impatience negatively impacts decisions to take out insurance against flooding is novel. However, support was not found for analogous hypotheses concerning relationships between the two dispositional variables and decisions to take mitigating measures. Evidently, factors other than individual risk aversion and time discounting rate play a crucial role in this behavior.     

Dilemmas of an Economic Theorist

What on earth are economic theorists like me trying to accomplish? This paper discusses four dilemmas encountered by an economic theorist: The dilemma of absurd conclusions: Should we abandon a model if it produces absurd conclusions or should we regard a model as a very limited set of assumptions that will inevitably fail in some contexts? The dilemma of responding to evidence: Should our models be judged according to experimental results? The dilemma of modelless regularities: Should models provide the hypothesis for testing or are they simply exercises in logic that have no use in identifying regularities? The dilemma of relevance: Do we have the right to offer advice or to make statements that are intended to influence the real world?     

第四方物流企业作业承接不完全信息双边讨价还价分析

第四方物流(4PL)企业承接物流作业后要依靠第三方物流(3PL)企业来完成物流作业,因而4PL企业承接物流作业的价格决策会受到它与3PL企业交易情况的影响.本文利用不完全信息双边讨价还价博弈得出了4PL企业承接物流作业的价格,分析了价格的影响因素和4PL企业与生产企业达成交易的条件.通过对比4PL企业已知其与3PL企业交易情况和未知其与3PL企业交易情况时的报价,得出了在与生产企业交易过程中,4PL企业在前一情况下的报价高于后一情况下的报价的结论,并分析了产生这一结论的原因.