A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers.     

Exploring gaps in the online economic inclusion of persons with disabilities in Korea

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the difference in the online economic activities of people with and without disabilities in Korea. We conducted a multiple regression analysis to investigate the impact of socioeconomic characteristics, internet access, and internet skills on online economic activities. Our sample, based on a 2016 dataset that included 1554 people with disabilities and 6004 people without disabilities, was developed using quota sampling based on gender, age, and residence. We determined that individuals with disabilities were more likely to engage in online economic activities if they had higher levels of education, lived in urban areas, were employed, or had greater internet skills. Individuals without disabilities were more likely to engage in online economic activities if they were women, had higher levels of education, were employed, lived in a two-generation or more household, or had greater internet skills. For both people with and without disabilities, the level of education, employment status, and internet skills positively contribute to online economic activites. We also determined that education level, participation in economic activity, living in a two-generation or more household, and internet skills had a statistically significant influence on online economic activity for people both with and without disabilities. These results highlight the importance of education and internet training for people with disabilities, as well as social support systems that help them learn to use the internet in diverse ways through both formal and informal networks. The study also underscores the importance of information and communications technology that adequately addresses people’s needs.     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

Elementary renewal theorems for widely dependent random variables with applications to precise large deviations

Abstract

On the basis of Wang and Cheng (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 384 (2011) 597–606), this paper further investigates elementary renewal theorems for counting processes generated by random walks with widely orthant dependent increments. The obtained results improve the corresponding ones of the above-mentioned paper mainly in the sense of weakening the moment conditions on the positive parts of the increments. Meanwhile, a revised version of strong law of large numbers for random walks with widely orthant dependent increments is established, which improves Theorem 1.4 of Wang and Cheng (2011 Wang, Y., and D. Cheng. 2011. Basic renewal theorems for a random walk with widely dependent increments and their applications. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 384 (2):597–606. doi:10.1016/j.jmaa.2011.06.010.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) by enlarging the regions of dominating coefficients. Finally, by using the above results, some precise large deviation results for a nonstandard renewal risk model are established, in which the innovations are widely orthant dependent random variables with common heavy tails, and the inter-arrival times are also widely orthant dependent.     

Policy Space: What,for What,and Where?

This article examines how developing countries can use, and enlarge, existing policy space, without opting out of international commitments. It argues that: (i) a meaningful context for policy space must extend beyond trade policy and include macroeconomic and exchange‐rate policies that will achieve developmental goals more effectively; (ii) policy space depends not only on international rules but also on the impact of international market conditions and policy decisions taken in other countries on the effectiveness of national policy instruments; and (iii) international integration affects policy space through several factors that pull in opposite directions; whether it increases or reduces policy space differs by country and type of integration.     

Vocational education,self‐employment and burnout among Australian workers

We examine the relationship between vocational education and occupational burnout among workers in different forms of employment. Although the self‐employed enjoy higher levels of job autonomy and work‐related satisfaction, we do not know whether they experience lower rates of occupational burnout, and whether vocational education plays a role in this relationship. This latter consideration is important, given that vocational qualifications often lead to self‐employment and prior research demonstrated that formal training may reduce burnout. However, formal education was previously measured in years of schooling, without considering the distinction between academically‐oriented and vocational courses. Therefore, using data from a 2001 national survey of working Australians, we first establish that the self‐employed are significantly less likely to experience burnout. We then demonstrate that some resilience to burnout can be attributed to the attainment of skilled vocational training, net of employment characteristics which are also very important.     

青藏高原地区与东部发达地区区域经济合作若干法律问题研究

本文以青藏高原地区与东部发达地区区域经济合作为切入点,以法治化为视角,对青藏高原地区经济一体化的必然性、法律特征以及青藏高原地区与东部发达地区区域经济合作的若干法律问题进行了初步探讨,并提出了相关法律对策建议。     

论藏族的丧葬风俗

为什么全民信仰藏传佛教的藏民族,其丧葬的主要类型不是佛教所推崇的火葬而是天葬?为什么最高级的葬法是塔葬而不是最流行的天葬?为什么土葬的兴衰史与苯教的兴衰史相一致?文章从藏族的地理环境、宗教文化与民族史方面进行了论述,提出了藏民族葬俗双因素决定理论:地理环境与宗教交互作用决定了藏民族葬俗,地理环境在很大程度上抵消了宗教的决定性影响,特别是苯教所推崇的土葬和佛教所推崇的火葬的影响;而宗教又削弱了地理环境对葬俗的限制和束缚。     

地理气候环境与鄂伦春族服饰

本文通过研究鄂伦春族与地理气候环境的关系 ,提出地理、气候、环境是影响鄂伦春族服饰文化形成的重要条件 ,在其影响下 ,鄂伦春族的服饰习俗逐渐形成 ,并在这一特定的环境中得到发展     

世界体系中的"华南经济圈"及其参与中国-东盟自由贸易区的优势问题--全球化背景下的华南经济圈研究之一

世界各地的华侨华人经济联系建构了世界华商网络 ,并以此融入世界体系 ,形成了整个“中华经济圈” ;而包括粤港澳台闽桂琼在内的“华南经济圈”则构筑了“中华经济圈”的圆心 ,并维系其经济增长 (“圆周半径”)的动态平衡。“华南经济圈”由闽台经济区、珠江三角洲经济区、环北部湾沿岸经济区和环南中国海经济区所构成 ,它参与中国———东盟自由贸易区的优势主要在于地缘经济优势、特区经济优势和会展经济优势